Houston Texans Betting Primer: Super Bowl Odds, Win Total Pick, More
Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images. Pictured: Deshaun Watson.
Houston Texans Odds
If you’re new to betting, the Texans’ +5000 Super Bowl odds mean a $100 bet would net $5,000 if they won. [Convert odds using our betting odds calculator.]
The Houston Texans finished atop the AFC South in 2019, going 10-6 in the regular season. Deshaun Watson won’t have DeAndre Hopkins this season, but the Texans bolstered their running game by trading Hopkins to the Cardinals for David Johnson.
Our analysts break down the Texans’ win total and key questions facing Houston heading into 2020.
Texans Win Total Pick
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, breaks down how he’s betting the Texans’ win total.
Bill O’Brien continues to be the real-life version of “Taco” from The League, trading away DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals in exchange for David Johnson — one of many moves that will create long term damage.
That said, if Johnson can regain his 2018 form and Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks can stay healthy, the Texans could have a top-10 offense this season. After all, they still have Deshaun Watson, who gives them a chance to win any game he plays.
Still, I’m bearish on Houston for reasons that extend beyond those offseason blunders. The Texans were one of the luckier teams in terms of one-score games, going 8-3 in such spots. They also had the fourth-best fumble luck One of the more alarming stats of their 2019 season was that they led only 37.1% of the time — you would expect a team at that rate to win about 7.3 games.
I’m projecting the Texans for only 7.1 wins, so there’s value on their under.
PICK: Under 7.5 (bet to -125)
Key Questions for the Texans
1. Can the key pieces stay healthy for a full season? Injuries are so random, but it’s a real concern worth bringing up for Houston.
J.J. Watt has played in only 32 games over the past four seasons — his presence is paramount on that side of the ball. Meanwhile, Will Fuller, who is coming off double groin surgery, has missed more than a third of all possible regular-season games since entering the league. Houston also added two other receivers in an aging Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks, the latter of whom has very legitimate concussion issues.
That’s a lot of questions for a group that lost one of the best receivers in the league this past offseason.
2. What will the Tim Kelly offense look like? This will be the first year that the offensive coordinator will call plays. If you assume Fuller and Laremy Tunsil are healthy, this offense still has plenty of potential with Deshaun Watson at the helm.
Keep an eye on the tendencies of this Houston offense early in the season, particularly in regards to the volume of play-action.
3. Can new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver scheme up pressure? The secondary is extremely weak with only one reliable corner (Bradley Roby) as we all saw the last time Houston took the field in a playoff loss to Kansas City. That places even more emphasis on scheme.
Houston’s defense simply couldn’t get off the field last year, allowing teams to convert on 48.51% of third downs last season (31st in NFL). The Texans need to be much more aggressive on third downs, which is realistic to expect from first-time coordinator Weaver, who was mentored by Rex Ryan.