Jaguars vs. Broncos Betting Picks & Odds: How to Bet the Over/Under

Jaguars vs. Broncos Betting Picks & Odds: How to Bet the Over/Under article feature image

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew (15).

Jaguars at Broncos Betting Picks & Odds

  • Spread: Denver -3
  • Over/Under: 38
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The Jaguars haven’t had much to be happy about this season, but rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew has been a surprising bright spot. Minshew nearly won his first road game at Houston and heads to Denver for a meeting with the 0-3 Broncos.

So far the market is split in terms of betting tickets, but nearly two-thirds of bettors like the under as of Thursday. What can we expect from the exciting rookie in Week 4?

Our analysts break down the most angles of this matchup, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds, and our favorite picks.

Jaguars-Broncos Injury Report

The biggest question marks for the Broncos are linebacker Josey Jewell (hamstring) and corner Kareem Jackson (hamstring), who’ve missed both practices this week. Their potential absences wouldn’t be ideal since Jackson has a respectable 70.9 coverage grade from Pro Football Focus and Jewell is one of their best run defenders. Jewell’s potential absence would be good news for Leonard Fournette, however.

The most noteworthy storyline from the Jaguars is cornerback Jalen Ramsey who is dealing with a back injury, but also the birth of his child. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Ramsey sit this one out. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Jaguars Pass Rush vs. Broncos Offensive Line

Much has been made of whether Ramsey will ever play for the Jaguars again, but even if he does suit up at Mile High, odds are he won’t have to cover for long on each play.

The Jags enter Week 4 tied for first in the NFL for sacks (13), while the Broncos rank 26th in adjusted sack rate, Football Outsiders’ advanced metric which adjusts sacks for down, distance, and situation. Left tackle Garrett Bolles ranks 32nd in PFF’s pass-blocking grades, and right tackle Elijah Wilkinson ranks 63rd, meaning the Broncos are essentially getting replacement-level play from the bookends of their offensive line.

That won’t cut it against Pro Bowler and former First-Team All Pro Calais Campbell (three sacks, six QB hits), rookie first-rounder Josh Allen (two sacks, four QB hits) and Yannick Ngakoue, who finished top-three in QB hits last season (33).

Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Yannick Ngakoue

With Joe Flacco under center — his 69.0 passer rating off play action this year ranks 34th — the Broncos have little hope to slow down Jacksonville’s pass rush if they fall behind.

Despite a solid stable of talent at the skill positions, shoddy roster construction at quarterback and along the O-line has doomed the Broncos under John Elway in the post-Gary Kubiak era and led to the franchise consistently falling short of expectations, as evidenced by their 11-22-2 against the spread record (6-9-2 at home) since Kubiak left after 2016. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Broncos -3.5
  • Projected Total: 38.5

Yes, Minshew is a flashy rookie quarterback who has been one of the better surprises of 2019. However, this should be a defensive struggle and I don’t see any value in it at this point. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

PJ Walsh: Under 38.5

It probably won’t take much for me to convince everyone that this is going to be a low-scoring game. In fact, the total sits at 38.5 at PointsBet, so oddsmakers see a defensive battle as well.

But even with the low number, I still think there’s enough value to play the under. Why? Because the market has yet to react to what appears to be a brutal weather forecast in Denver.

Sports Insights’ hourly weather forecast is calling for sustained winds of 19 mph blowing across the field throughout the game.

According to Bet Labs, NFL games played in double-digit winds have gone under the total 56% of the time since 2003. But as I mentioned above, breezes are expected to be much heavier than just “double digits,” and gusts could be downright troublesome.

The National Weather Service says gusts could reach 40-50 mph Sunday in Denver, which certainly won’t help any of these passing offenses.

How would you rate this article?