Jaguars vs Eagles Odds, Picks, Prediction for Week 4
Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Hurts.
- The 3-0 Eagles are favored by almost a touchdown against the upstart Jaguars.
- Jacksonville is 2-1 and sits atop the AFC South.
- Anthony Dabbundo previews the game and makes his pick below.
Jaguars vs. Eagles Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Only one unbeaten team remains in the NFL after the Dolphins' defeat on Thursday Night Football: The Eagles.
The Jaguars are 2-1 and have been one of the most impressive teams in the league. Not only did they beat the Colts and Chargers — two projected playoff teams — they dominated them. Trevor Lawrence, in the midst of a second-year leap, is a top-10 — maybe even top-five — quarterback by almost every metric.
The Eagles offense has followed a similar pattern in each of the last two weeks. Drop 24 points in the first half, sit on the lead and don't do much in the second half. Because the defense has been successful in shutting down opponents in the second half, the offense hasn't been asked to do a ton.
However, Philadelphia's defense is still a unit that can be had because of how conservative it is generally. If the Eagles are forced to keep scoring, this total is too low given the offensive efficiency of both squads.
Jaguars vs. Eagles Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Jaguars and Eagles match up statistically:
Jaguars vs. Eagles DVOA Breakdown
Both Lawrence and Jalen Hurts have taken huge steps as passers this year.
For Lawrence, his processing looks like it has finally sped up to the elite level we saw from him at Clemson. For Hurts, it's been his deep ball and throws to the middle of the field. During most of his time as a starter, Hurts wasn't effective at using the short, intermediate or deep middle of the field.
Now that he's improved in those aspects, the Eagles offense has become a lot scarier. Dominant offensive line, mobile quarterback, two legitimate receiving options and a great tight end in Dallas Goedert. Philadelphia ranks fourth in drop back EPA, sixth in rushing success rate and third in overall offensive efficiency.
The Eagles haven't faced a good secondary yet, and they're not going to see one on Sunday either.
The Jaguars have wrecked teams with their pass rush thus far, but they faced two banged up offensive lines in the Colts and Chargers. Philly has a great offensive line and Hurts' mobility will apply pressure on the Jaguars' overrated secondary.
If you throw out the second halves, when the offense slows down after building big leads, Philadelphia is first in overall EPA/play and drop back EPA.
While I remain bullish on the Eagles offense, what do we really know about their defense? They struggled to contain Jared Goff and the Lions in the second half of Week 1. Kirk Cousins was able to move the ball relatively easily in Week 2, but failed mightily in the red zone.
With Cousins' struggles against zone coverage, it's fair to chalk that up as a bad matchup. The Eagles defense plays quite passively; they don't blitz much and take away explosive plays. But if you beat this unit on early downs, they remain quite beatable.
Jacksonville ranks first in early down dropback success rate at 64%. That is 5% higher than every other team in the league. Pederson is a master of getting the ball out quickly and he's done an excellent job of protecting Lawrence from his mediocre offensive line.
Lawrence's accuracy and processing ability should be able to generate plenty of points and force the Eagles to not take their foot off the pedal on offense.
Our Action Network pro projection has this total at 47.5. Given that both offenses are top five in efficiency, the total sitting at 45.5 seems too low. The Eagles did go under their last two games, but that was more a function of blowouts than anything else.
The Jaguars' defensive backfield showed plenty of flaws against Wentz in Week 1 and will probably get exposed again facing a well protected and healthy quarterback this week.
Even if Jacksonville is down multiple scores, the accuracy of Lawrence and the conservatism of Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon is sure to leave plenty of backdoor points available.
This total is a touch low because of the strong under trend across the league and the potential for bad weather in Philly. Given the rain doesn't look particularly heavy on Sunday and the moderate projected winds are insignificant, this is a contrarian over play for me.
You may want to monitor for more weather news that could drive this total down below the key number of 45. But I'd still play the over at 45.5 barring a major change in the forecast.