Josh Jacobs NFL Combine Prop Bets: Over/Under 4.5 Seconds in 40-Yard Dash?

The 2019 NFL Combine here and sportsbooks have released performance props. Our staff will be making official picks for prop bets on a number of different prospects, including running back Josh Jacobs.

Here’s the workout schedule for the various position groups:

• Friday: Running backs, offensive linemen, kickers, special teams
• Saturday: Quarterbacks, wide receivers, tight ends
• Sunday: Defensive linemen, linebackers
• Monday: Defensive backs

Now let's dig into the Jacobs props that are on the market as of writing, as well as our analysis based on research and official combine data going back to 2006.

Jacobs is widely considered one of the better running backs in this draft class after his success at Alabama, where he racked up 2,062 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns in three seasons.

FantasyLabs editor-in-chief Matthew Freedman had this to say about Jacobs in his way-too-early 2019 dynasty fantasy football rankings:

What Kenyon Drake was to Alabama for 2012-15, Jacobs was for 2016-18: An explosive runner and competent receiver with game-breaking ability as a return man. Jacobs has never been a collegiate lead back, but the NFL’s fascination with ‘Bama means that he’ll likely be a top-100 pick. And with that type of draft capital, he’ll have a shot to earn a significant NFL role.

Josh Jacobs 40-Yard Dash Time

• Over 4.5 Seconds: -115
• Under 4.5 Seconds: -115

A quick Google search reveals that Jacobs ran a verified 4.4-second 40 in high school at 200 pounds before later running a 4.5-second 40 at Alabama's 2017 spring workouts. Former Alabama wide receiver Calvin Ridley ran a 4.43-second 40 at those same workouts then later recorded an identical mark at the 2018 combine, so they can be treated with some level of respectability.

Alabama lists Jacobs at 216 pounds while other services have him at 212, though he is consistently listed at 5-foot-10. We can actually get a general idea of the typical range of outcomes for sub-6-foot running backs who weigh between 212 and 216 pounds using Pro Football Reference's NFL Combine Results tool:

• 71 running backs fit the criteria since 2000
• The mean of the data is 4.58; the media is 4.59
• 19-of-71 backs (27%) ran a 40-yard dash in 4.5 or fewer seconds

It's certainly possible that a running back as good as Jacobs could rank inside the top 25th-percentile in the 40-yard dash. The man sure looks fast.

The problem is that our evidence includes proof that not only has Jacobs failed to break 4.5 seconds in recent years, but running backs with similar size and speed have struggled mightily to post blazing times.

At -115 odds, I gotta take the over.

THE PICK: Over 4.5 Seconds

Josh Jacobs Bench Press Reps

• Over 23.5 Reps: +116
• Under 23.5 Reps: -154

Jacobs managed to bench 405 pounds at the same Alabama workout that he posted the aforementioned 40-yard dash. StrengthLevel.com indicates that 24 reps of 225 pounds is equal to a one-rep max of 405 pounds, so the line appears to be fairly spot on.

However, only 8-of-60 backs (13%) shorter than 6-feet weighing between 212 and 216 pounds managed to rack up 24 or more reps. Only 15 total running backs have benched at least 15 reps at the combine since 2015.

Jacobs is clearly a physical specimen, but his props are incredibly lofty compared to what we've similar sized backs post in recent seasons.

THE PICK: Under 23.5 Reps

More 2019 NFL Combine Props

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• Kyler Murray NFL Combine Prop Bets: 40-Yard Time and Vertical Jump
• Greedy Williams NFL Combine Prop Bet: Over/Under 4.36-Second 40 for Draft's Best Corner?
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