Ravens vs Chiefs Prediction & Pick | AFC Championship Game
Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes (left) and Lamar Jackson.
Ravens vs Chiefs Prediction & Pick | AFC Championship Game
My Ravens vs Chiefs prediction & pick targets several betting markets, including the moneyline, game total and player props. The latest AFC Championship Game odds have Baltimore listed as a 4.5-point favorite on the spread with an over/under of 44. On the moneyline, the Ravens are -225 and the Chiefs are +185.
We have storylines galore on Championship Sunday. The first NFL Conference Championships were held 53 years ago in San Francisco and Baltimore, but this game marks the first time the Ravens will host the AFC Championship Game in franchise history despite winning two Super Bowls since 1996. This will also remarkably be the first time Kansas City doesn't host the AFC Championship since 2017 — still, the Chiefs find themselves right back where they usually end up following the Divisional Round.
So, who will come out victorious in The Charm City on Sunday? Let's take a closer look in my AFC Championship Game betting preview, which includes my Ravens vs Chiefs prediction.
Ravens vs Chiefs Prediction
Ravens vs Chiefs Odds
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +185 |
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It can't be overstated how dominant the Ravens have been this season. From a weighted DVOA perspective, they are the hottest team headed into Championship weekend since 1980, with 11 of the previous top-13 teams in that category all making it to the Super Bowl. Interestingly enough, the Ravens (vs. the 2012 Patriots) and Chiefs (vs. the 2020 Bills) prevented the other two from getting to the big game.
Amazingly, all 10 of Baltimore's home opponents this season finished with a winning record. Against the previous seven, it won by an average score of 38-17. The Ravens also finished 8-2 (excluding the regular-season finale when they rested starters) against playoff teams, with an average margin of victory of 170 points. They also finished with the most victories in NFL history against teams that finished with a winning record. They won those games by an average of two touchdowns.
In contrast, the Chiefs had more of a struggle this season. Including their two postseason victories, they finished below .500 (3-4) against playoff teams with a net scoring margin of just +13.
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When the Chiefs Have the Ball
Kansas City still has a top-10 offense, but it's nowhere near the caliber we've become accustomed to seeing under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
Chiefs tackles have really struggled in pass protection (and with penalties) and the wide receiver room remains underwhelming outside of the recent emergence of rookie Rashee Rice. Travis Kelce is still one of the best tight ends in the game, but he certainly doesn't have the same explosiveness he once possessed.
The Chiefs will be without All Pro guard Joe Thuney, who injured his pec in the Divisional Round. It's a massive loss against a complex Baltimore defense that can generate pressure in a multitude of ways without all-out blitzing (an enormous key against Mahomes) and uses constant pre-snap disguises. Thuney's absence is even more problematic with the issues at tackle, especially on the road in a hostile environment along an offensive line that has enjoyed great continuity all season.
Don't forget that Kansas City's offense struggled for long stretches throughout the season. I don't think the issues have all been solved because of a pair of victories over a decimated Dolphins defense and a Buffalo defense that had to deal with a dire situation at linebacker. In that latter game, Kansas City went with more heavy personnel sets and took advantage of Buffalo's injuries at linebacker, specifically exploiting A.J. Klein, who had just been signed off the street, at every possible opportunity.
It was a brilliant game plan by the Chiefs, but one that won't necessarily work against a Baltimore defense that is as strong as any up the middle at linebacker and safety, especially when they can keep the tremendous Kyle Hamilton in the slot in nickel where the Ravens have been almost unbeatable.
The Ravens could also get bacj Marlon Humphrey, who adds another versatile piece at cornerback. Humphrey can cover almost any position and brings another level of physicality to help in the run game.
Relatively speaking, the one potential weakness of the Ravens defense is getting them out of nickel with the run game and then throw on their corners, who have all graded out extremely well, but aren't necessarily known as shut-down coverage guys. They just aren't asked to do as much in this particular scheme.
Can Kansas City accomplish that? I'm not convinced. Baltimore has shown some cracks in its early down run defense when in nickel — partly by design with light boxes — and Isaiah Pacheco runs as hard as any back in the league, but Kansas City doesn't have a statistically elite rushing attack.
From a metrics or personnel standpoint, there really are no major flaws with this Baltimore defense that ranks in the top five across the board in every category.
The Ravens don't allow explosive plays and led the league in sacks. They just completely shut down an explosive Houston offense that ripped apart one of the better defenses in the league (Browns) in the Wild Card Round. Despite not recording a sack or turnover, Baltimore never allowed the Texans to cross the 27-yard line. That's critical against Mahomes, who will try to set an NFL postseason record of six straight playoff games without an interception (min. 20 attempts in each).
Remember this Ravens defense completely contained an elite 49ers offense on Christmas night. San Francisco went 12-0 in all other games with a healthy Deebo Samuel, averaging over 32 points per game and getting to at least 27 in each. Against Baltimore, San Francisco only had 12 until a late garbage time touchdown drive led by Sam Darnold.
Baltimore has one of the best coordinators in the league in Mike Macdonald, who has devised brilliant game plans customized to the opponent on a weekly basis. The Ravens don't really have a known identity, which provides Macdonald ultimate flexibility and makes it extremely difficult for opposing offenses to devise a game plan.
While the Ravens have an overwhelming edge on this side of the ball based on personnel, scheme, health and overall body of work, Kansas City still has two trump cards in Reid and Mahomes.
Can Reid come up with a brilliant game plan that potentially confuses the Ravens? That remains to be seen, but it's one of my favorite parts about the last three games of the season. It's when you see coaches pull out all of the stops and play the cards they've been holding all season.
It helps to have the best quarterback on the planet on your side in Mahomes, who can make gourmet stew out of day-old bath water with his improvisation skills. He's the ultimate wild card and is always capable of making countless plays with his legs and arm when plays break down, regardless of scheme, but he will have to be extra special on Sunday to have consistent success against Baltimore.
When the Ravens Have the Ball
While I think the Chiefs offense is a bit overrated perception-wise, I can't say the same about the defense, which has risen to the occasion time and time again. It's a unit that's allowed only 4.1 points in the second half over their last seven games and finished second (behind Baltimore) in both sacks and points allowed.
It's also a decent matchup schematically for Kansas City since it can play plenty of man coverage — Lamar Jackson has destroyed zones all year — and has an excellent coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo, who will undoubtedly have some exotic blitz packages cooked up in an attempt to throw Jackson off his game.
The Chiefs have a star defensive lineman in Chris Jones, who is more than capable of making a game-changing play. Watch closely when he matches up with guard John Simpson, which could be problematic for Baltimore. They also have two outstanding cornerbacks in L'Jarius Sneed on the outside and Trent McDuffie in the slot, which could make life difficult for Zay Flowers. The Chiefs have held almost every single No. 1 receiver they've faced below expectation this season.
That said, Kansas City's stop unit is vulnerable against the run (27th in DVOA) and benefitted from a fairly easy schedule. The Chiefs struggled with power-run concepts, especially from shotgun, which spells potential doom against Gus Edwards and the most run heavy offense in the league.
K.C. also struggled with No. 2 wide receivers (Buffalo missed Gabe Davis last week), so Rashod Bateman or Odell Beckham Jr. could have big games in the quick passing attack to counter Chiefs blitzes, or with one or two broken plays when Jackson buys time in the pocket.
Ravens vs Chiefs Pick & Prediction
I bet the Ravens moneyline at -165 on open as my fair price is over -200. As for the line, it has since risen and is getting closer to what I would consider a fair price of around -4.5, so I wouldn't bet the Baltimore spread right now. However, I'd look to jump in if it comes down to -3 or gets to that number live.
If someone tells me they have to take the points (and over a field goal) with Patrick Mahomes, I can't really argue with that. This is a matchup of quarterbacks who have been absolute ATMs as favorites of under a field goal or underdogs (including the postseason):
- Jackson: 16-2 ATS (88.9%), including 13-2 ATS as an underdog.
- Mahomes: 16-6-1 ATS (72.7%), including 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog.
Still, I just can't get there considering the body of work of these teams. We have close to a 20-game data set that tells us who both of these teams are.
Can the Chiefs win? Absolutely. My numbers say they do about one-third of the time. It's one football game with an oblong ball and human officials. There are brilliant schemers on each side that could change the game with a master tweak. Kansas City also has that Mahomes guy under center.
But the Ravens have been significantly superior all season. They've had the better offense, defense and special teams despite facing a substantially tougher schedule. They are also the healthier and more well-rested team in this one.
Schematically, they should also have success rushing the ball, which should then set up opportunities with play-action, where Kansas City really struggles to defend in space. On the other side of the ball, Baltimore's elite defense excels at defending short passes and the middle of the field, which is where Kansas City's offense has to live due to a lack of explosiveness on the outside.
From a game total perspective, I like the under and I am waiting on a 45 or better to pop up in the market — still, I will play it at 44.5 if that's the best number we get. As I've mentioned, this is a good schematic matchup for units led by coordinators who you can count on to have very impactful wrinkles.
Where the Ravens have an advantage is the run game, so I expect them to pound it early and often to set up the pass. Plus, they already play at a slow pace and the spread indicates they will be playing from ahead. Since I think they'll win, that will lead to even more running if they play in a game state with the lead.
I also expect the Chiefs to try to have a slightly higher than normal run frequency with heavier packages, especially early on. And remember, this is a Kansas City offense that lacked explosiveness all season and even failed to clear 21 points in 10 of their 17 regular-season games despite a favorable schedule. Throw in potential inclement weather and I think this sets up as a lower scoring game than many anticipate, even if it's a scary proposition with these two signal-callers.
From a props perspective, I played Zay Flowers under 4.5 receptions since I expect the Ravens to go with a run-heavy game plan. I don't expect Flowers to have many favorable matchups with either L'Jarius Sneed or Trent McDuffie on him for a majority of the game. And with the potential return of Mark Andrews, Flowers' target share could go down further.
For what it's worth, I don't see any value in Flowers' yardage total, which looks about right to me. He could hit a long one after some Lamar Jackson improv, but there's also a good chance Sneed is penalized (17 on the year) on a deep shot, as he plays very aggressively. That wouldn't hurt either prop assuming no catch, but I do prefer the catches under much more.
I also played Gus Edwards over 41.5 rushing yards, which I think is a bit depressed based on how I see the game playing out. While it's tough to project carry split with the Ravens running backs, Edwards has much better metrics in the power and shotgun running game, which is where the Chiefs are most vulnerable. I'm expecting a pretty big day from the Gus Bus.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
If you're looking for a fun same-game parlay, I'd throw the Ravens moneyline, alternate under, Edwards Anytime Touchdown and maybe Rashod Bateman over receiving yards. I expect Bateman to get a heavier workload at the No. 2 spot over Odell Beckham Jr. — like last week — since he's the more reliable run blocker.
Lastly, as always, shop around for the best number and bet responsibly. Remember it's just one football game. Good luck!
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