KJ Hamler Player Props: Broncos vs Chargers Monday Night Football Pick
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: KJ Hamler.
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KJ Hamler Receiving Yards
|Prop||Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-105; playable to 21.5 yards)|
|Matchup||Broncos vs. Chargers|
|Time||8:15 p.m. ET|
Even though we’re only concluding Week 6 tonight, the Broncos have seemingly played in 25 primetime games this season (don’t check my math).
Nevertheless, we have the Broncos and Chargers squaring off on Monday Night Football. With the Chiefs losing on Sunday, both teams will be laser-focused on picking up the win to gain ground on the AFC West leaders.
In four games played, KJ Hamler has registered two catches for 65 yards on four targets. While he’s technically listed as the Broncos' third receiver on their depth chart, I see him fourth in the pecking order tonight.
Kendall Hinton has been elevated from the practice squad, and he’s significantly out-snapped Hamler in the two games they’ve both been active.
Hinton is a better fit next to Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, as he runs more intermediate routes. Hamler is more of a deep threat (28.8-yard aDOT this season, 20.1 last season), which is akin to both of the Broncos' top wideouts.
The Chargers defense has struggled against the run this season, ranking 22nd in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. The Broncos will look to establish Melvin Gordon, likely deploying two TE sets to bolster the run game. With Sutton and Jeudy expected to see the lion's share of the receiver targets, Hamler’s role should be minimal.
With potentially limited snaps and a low percentage of targets, the under on the third-year receiver’s yards prop has value. I have Hamler only pulling in one catch for 15 yards tonight.
Broncos +4 | Chargers -4