Hammer This Leonard Fournette Prop Bet for Super Bowl 55
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Bucs RB Leonard Fournette
- Leonard Fournette is the safety net and checkdown option for Tom Brady, so he should have no problem hitting this over.
- Find out why our analysts love this prop bet for the Buccaneers running back in Super Bowl 55.
The big storyline entering Super Bowl 55 is the matchup between the most recent Super Bowl MVP, Patrick Mahomes, and a four-time winner of the award, Tom Brady.
But there are plenty of other players who are going to make an impact Sunday.
Here’s how our experts are betting Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette against the Chiefs.
Leonard Fournette Over 3.5 Receptions
Raheem Palmer: The Buccaneers are loaded with an embarrassment of riches to catch passes from Tom Brady, including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate.
Despite that, guess who’s second in targets in the postseason? RB Leonard Fournette, who has 17 targets and 14 receptions over the last three games against the Washington Football Team, New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers.
In Arians’ risk-it-no-biscuit offense, Brady leads the league in Intended Air Yards (9.5) but the strength of his game is still the short passing game that he executed in New England with James White and Dion Lewis.
Ronald Jones hasn’t been a factor in the passing game this postseason, as he has just one target and zero receptions during the past three games. It’s clear Fournette is the safety net and checkdown option for Brady in this offense, so he should have no problem hitting this over which he’s hit every game of this postseason.
I would play this only at 3.5, which you can still get at BetMGM.
Leonard Fournette Over 3.5 Receptions
Stuckey: While Fournette is getting too much love in the rushing prop market, I don’t think he’s getting enough when it comes to catching balls out of the backfield. He’s the clear pass-catching option for Tampa Bay right now — Jones has only had one target in his past three games combined.
It’s true that Fournette had at least four catches in only three of the 11 regular-season games he played at least 10 snaps in, but he’s being utilized in the Bucs’ revamped short passing game much more frequently of late — he’s cleared this 3.5 reception hurdle in all three playoff games with totals of four, five and five.
Plus, this is an ideal matchup against a Chiefs’ pass defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against opposing backs. I also expect defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to blitz at a high rate, which would lead to more opportunities for Brady to check it down to Fournette.
In 18 games this season, the Chiefs have allowed opposing backs to catch 95 passes on 126 targets for 820 yards — that’s a single-game average of 5.3 receptions on 7.0 targets for 45.5 yards.
It’s hard to imagine Fournette not getting almost every running back target. Plus, I’m fairly certain most of Kansas City’s attention on defense will, as usual, be focused on slowing down Tampa Bay’s dangerous weapons on the outside.
I like this up to -150.
My podcast co-host Chris Raybon, who has much more props expertise, projects Fournette to finish with 4.5 catches. Let’s just hope that we can avoid the drops that killed our Devin Singletary and Chris Godwin props. Maybe Lenny could even haul in a miraculous one-handed catch to get us to four catches on the last play of the game to make up for our loss on Jimmy Graham against the Saints. Yes, I’m still bitter.
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