Le’Veon Bell Prop Pick: Betting Against His 2020 Touchdown Production

Le'Veon Bell Prop Pick for 2020

• Under Total 8.5 Touchdowns [Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]

Odds as of March 28 and via PointsBet. Get up to $25 FREE and $250 in free bets at PointsBet or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

I'm having a bit of déjà vu with this prop.

Heading into 2019, one of my favorite season-long props was Le'Veon Bell under 8.5 rushing touchdowns — I felt that his move from the Steelers to the Jets was a significant downgrade in terms of scoring potential. That turned out to be the case as he managed to score only three rushing touchdowns despite playing in 15 games.

This 2020 prop, however, is the combination of rushing and receiving TDs. And while I have Bell projected for 7.5 total touchdowns this season — only one short of this line — there are plenty of hidden factors that favor this under.

For starters, Bell has racked up five seasons of 300-plus touches and will be turning 28 this season. It's fair to assume his body will likely start to break down and be on the decline in terms of his career trajectory. He was very durable last year and missed only one game (due to illness), but in three of his six seasons, Bell has missed three or more games due to various injuries and suspensions.

Any player who misses two or more games is likely going to see their season-long props go under, and Bell has a history of missing games that can't be ignored in this market.

Lastly, at this point in his career, his explosiveness is not what it once was. His four total touchdowns last year were the following yardages: 9, 2, 1 and 1. That tells me Bell relies on his offense to get into goal-line situations often to increase his TD odds. The Jets were the second-lowest scoring team last season, averaging just 17.3 points. They're unlikely to improve much this season, so Bell is likely to face similar struggles in terms of scoring opportunities.