Lions vs. Packers Odds & Pick: Bet On Green Bay To Cover This Week 2 Spread (Sept. 20)
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers
- The Detroit Lions blew a huge lead in the fourth quarter in Week 1 and will now travel to Green Bay as six-point underdogs against the Packers.
- Detroit's injury issues should provide the Packers with enough chances to cover the spread.
- Check out Mike Randle's full breakdown with updated odds below.
Lions vs. Packers Odds
The last two times Detroit and Green Bay met, those games were decided in the final seconds — and in both the Lions had defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.
Coming off a massive fourth-quarter meltdown to the Bears, can the Lions possibly find a way to breakthrough against Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field?
Injuries were the story on both sides of the ball for the Lions in Week 1. That’ll be true again in Week 2.
Last week the offense was without star wide receiver Kenny Golladay, who is out again with a hamstring injury. And on defense, the Lions already placed Justin Coleman on IR while veteran cornerback Desmond Trufant is now out with a hamstring injury — Trufant’s absence in particular will a critical blow to Rodgers and wide receiver Davante Adams.
Backup cornerback Darryl Roberts was also injured in the opening game, and is now listed as questionable for Sunday. First-round pick cornerback Jeff Okudah should make his NFL debut, but facing Adams will be a challenge.
Like Golladay, tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai is out again with a foot injury. Starting left guard Joe Dahl is also out.
The Packers pass defense ranked ninth per Football Outsiders’ DVOA in 2019, so the Lions will need to attack the Packers on the ground, as Green Bay allowed a robust 6.1 yards per carry to Minnesota’s running backs.
But will injuries to Detroit’s offensive line hurt their efficiency?
Green Bay Packers
While Week 1 performances can often result in overreactions, the Packers offense truly looked explosive against the Vikings — Green Bay’s 43 points were the most allowed by a Minnesota defense in the Mike Zimmer era.
Green Bay averaged a terrific 4.9 yards per carry and totaled 158 rushing yards. Rodgers completed more than 68% of his passes for 364 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. The Vikings failed to record a sack and tallied only two quarterback hits against the Packers offensive line.
The Rodgers-Adams connection will be a problem for Detroit. Since the 2015 season, Rodgers and Adams have faced the Lions six times. In those games, Adams has averaged 10.7 targets, 6.3 receptions, 19.1 PPR points and exactly one touchdown per game.
The Packers’ versatile trio of running backs will provide a weekly defensive scheming problem. The Lions rank just 22nd in run defense DVOA after Week 1, allowing a 4.9 yards per carry to Chicago plodder David Montgomery.
As a team, Detroit allowed 149 total rushing yards against the Bears and 5.3 yards per attempt. Aaron Jones (4.1 yards per carry), Jamaal Williams (four receptions) and rookie A.J. Dillon will all have opportunities to wear down the Lions rushing attack.
The injuries make it tough to back the Lions to cover this number at Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers is 47-25-3 (65.3%) as a favorite against the spread at home since 2009 (per Bet Labs). That’s a Return On Investment (ROI) of 26.6%.
This line has remained under the key number of 7, and is currently between Packers -6 and -6.5 depending on the book (check out our real-time NFL odds page to shop for the best number). The history in this matchup projects a close battle, but the injuries to Detroit are too much to overcome.
With a Lions team that is limited on both sides of the ball, I’ll give the points with the Packers.
PICK: Packers -6