Ravens vs Rams Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 14 Betting Pick
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Ravens vs Rams Odds, Prediction
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 42 -110o / -110u | -360 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 42 -110o / -110u | +280 |
The latest Ravens vs. Rams odds for NFL Week 14 have Baltimore installed as a 7.5-point favorite, while the game total is rising on Sunday morning, at 42 as of 11:20 a.m. ET. My NFL pick for this game is on the underdog.
As the football calendar shifts to December, bad weather becomes an ever increasing factor to consider when analyzing NFL games. The Rams will travel across the country from sunny Southern California to rainy Baltimore to face the Ravens on Sunday. The forecast is calling for consistent rain and 15 mph winds and that will present real challenges for both offenses to execute efficiently.
Because of scheduling quirks, the Ravens have one of the biggest rest advantages in the NFL. Baltimore played a Week 11 Thursday night game at home against Cincinnati on Nov. 16. When the Ravens take the field in Week 14, they’ll have played one game in 24 days. That gives the Ravens a clear rest advantage, but Lamar Jackson's midweek illness and the injury to tight end Mark Andrews increase the uncertainty for Baltimore as a sizable home favorite.
Continue reading below for my Los Angeles-Baltimore betting preview and Ravens vs. Rams prediction.
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Ravens vs Rams Pick
The Rams have taken a real step forward since Matthew Stafford returned from injury. They are fifth in EPA per play offensively since the Seattle game.
Kyren Williams makes a huge difference in the rushing attack, mostly because the other options in the backfield were so bad. The Rams rank top five in EPA per rush since Week 11, and that includes a game against an elite — albeit injured — Browns defense.
The Rams offense under Sean McVay was at its best with a functional running game — think Todd Gurley NFC Champion Rams in 2018 — and Williams' ability in space and to run off tackle fundamentally changes the play sequencing. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are also both healthy, and the offensive line has been around league average in both rush and pass block grades.
If you take a composite score of the PFF grades, Sports Info Solutions data and ESPN's win rate stats along the line, the Rams are 19th in run block and 22nd in pass block. It's not great, but those numbers aren't nearly as bad as some thought it would be during the preseason. The trend line is straight upward for the Rams offense, and it's not the only unit that's shown real improvement in the last month.
Bet Los Angeles vs. Baltimore at FanDuel
It's still not clear what the Ravens offense really is without Andrews.
They've played two games without him and the last one was arguably Lamar Jackson's worst game of the season. Jackson had a sub-60% completion rate against the Chargers, just the third time all season he's done that. It’s hard to do that against Brandon Staley's defense, but Jackson also had his lowest yards per attempt of the season.
Andrews also missed opening week against the Texans, but that was the first game with a new offensive coordinator and that can skew the data. Baltimore wasn't good offensively in that game, but it had more to do with costly fumbles and miscues.
The Ravens will attempt to lean on the run, especially in the bad weather, but it's not entirely clear whether they'll find success. By most metrics, Baltimore has a top-five offensive line. But the Rams have taken real steps forward in run defense. They rank inside the top 10 in run stop metrics and the very young group has steadily improved as the season has progressed.
If you look through the season-long numbers, only the Cowboys and 49ers torched the Rams consistently. They were the only two teams to surpass 24 points.
Ravens vs. Rams
Betting Picks & Predictions
There's a clear hierarchy in the NFC right now with San Francisco, Dallas and Philadelphia viewed by the market as the top three teams. After that, Detroit has the best record, but the Lions were uncompetitive in Baltimore when they met earlier this season.
The emergence of the Rams and Packers in the last month seems real to me. Both are healthier, both have coaches with proven track records and both have rebuilt on the fly with an emphasis on young talent.
The market is still catching up to the Rams and the bad weather and loss of the Ravens' top weapon makes it harder for the Ravens to separate as a big favorite. Baltimore will probably have success running, but that will make it harder to get margin.
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