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Patriots-Jaguars Betting Preview: Sharps Moving the Market

Sep 16, 2018 12:00 AM EDT

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars betting odds

  • Spread: Patriots-1.5
  • Over/Under: 45
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Sunday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: There is definitely a bit of a Pros vs. Joes situation going on in this game, as the Patriots are getting 70% of bets at the time of writing (live data can be found here), but the line has moved toward the Jaguars.

Earlier in the week, the Jags +2 was available at most books and +2.5 at a handful of others, but that is no longer the case, as sharp action has moved the line to a consensus of New England -1.5 across the market. — Mark Gallant


Injury watch: The Patriots’ backfield is as thin as ever with Jeremy Hill (knee) on IR and Rex Burkhead (concussion) questionable after practicing in a limited fashion Thursday. The offense at least hopes to have lineman Marcus Cannon (calf) and tight end Jacob Hollister (hamstring) against the Jaguars’ formidable front seven.

The Jaguars announced that RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) doesn’t need to practice in order to suit up Sunday.

The offense should at least have tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins (core muscle) and center Brandon Linder (knee) after each got in limited practices Thursday. — Ian Hartitz

Note: All injury info as of Thursday 9/13 at 5:30 p.m. EST. Please visit our Week 2 Injury Dashboard for updated daily practice participation and game statuses up until game time.

Trends to know: Sometimes with Tom Brady, the stats get so ridiculous they get overlooked. This may fall into that category: Since 2003, when facing AFC opponents that are above .500, Brady is 44-19-5 ATS.

When oddsmakers set the line in this spot at under a field goal favorite (or an underdog) — basically giving the indication Brady’s opponent is near equal strength — the Patriots are 22-6-1 ATS (+15 units), covering the spread by an average of 9.8 points.

On the road, in those situations, New England is 17-5-1 ATS and covers by more than 10 points per game. — Evan Abrams

DFS edge: Tom Brady proved last January that he’s plenty capable of picking apart the Jaguars’ vaunted secondary, and his early season output in recent seasons could signal an even bigger performance is on the horizon.

Since 2014, Brady has averaged 24.2 DraftKings PPG with a +3.2 Plus/Minus in September and October, compared to 19.5 DraftKings PPG with a -2.0 Plus/Minus in November, December and January. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to Watch: Patriots

I’m not overthinking this one. Over the past 15 seasons, the Patriots are 75-42-3 against the spread away from Gillette Stadium. That translates to a 26.2% ROI and +31.4 units won.

Since 2003, the Patriots have won their division every year except 2008, when Brady missed almost the entire season.

Meanwhile, the Jags have won their division just once since 2003. Recency bias, much?

One of these teams has the only quarterback in history with five Super Bowl victories, and the other has the man with the NFL’s most interceptions since he entered the league in 2014.

The Jags have the best defense in the AFC, but the Patriots have had a top-10 scoring offense each season since 2004. Defense might win championships, but the Patriots offense covers the spread.Matthew Freedman

Bet to Watch: Under 45.5

The Jaguars’ offense has serious question marks and should struggle early in the season. Jacksonville’s offseason investment in the offensive line will help long term, but last week was the first game that all five starters played together including the preseason. It will take time for that unit to jell.

Fournette is banged up in the backfield (although T.J. Yeldon is a solid replacement) and, more importantly, the receivers are very suspect. After letting Allen Robinson go to Chicago, Jacksonville lost Marqise Lee for the year.

The Patriots’ offensive line was thin entering the season, and is especially vulnerable at right tackle with Cannon banged up. He played only 60% of the snaps in Week 1, and the Jags can really exploit his backup LaAdrian Waddle.

Yes, Brady gets the ball out quickly, but the Jags have the corners to play press-man and the elite D-line to hit Brady a few times. The Jags also get ferocious pass rusher Dante Fowler back following a one-game suspension.

Ultimately, I think both offenses will struggle to find footing this week, especially with windy conditions potentially looming. — Stuckey


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

James Lang-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady, Blake Bortles

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