The New York Jets (3-13) and Buffalo Bills (11-5) will face off in NFL Week 18. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. Jets vs Bills will be broadcast live on CBS.
The Bills are 12-point favorites on the spread (Bills -12); the game total is 39 points. Buffalo is a -575 favorite on the moneyline; New York is a +450 underdog.
Let's get into my Jets vs Bills predictions for today's AFC East rivalry game.
NY Jets vs Buffalo Bills Predictions, Picks
- Jets vs Bills pick: Bills First Half Spread -4.5 (-110)
My Jets vs Bills best bet is on Buffalo to cover the first half spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Jets vs Bills Odds
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -110 | 39 -110o / -110u | +450 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -110 | 39 -110o / -110u | -575 |
Jets vs Bills Preview
We have seen plenty of line movement since the Bills opened around -11.5 at most recreational books during the discovery phase, dropping to as low as -6.5, before seemingly settling at -7.5 following Sean McDermott's statement that Josh Allen would be good to go despite a nagging foot injury.
The Chargers are 13-point underdogs in their matchup with the Broncos, so it is quite realistic that Buffalo could move up to the sixth seed with a win and, theoretically, has something to play for as a result, though it is debatable which of the highest seeds actually offers the best matchup.
Buffalo could also catch Houston, but it would mean the Texans losing as 10-point underdogs to the Colts in the early window.
As with most Week 17 matchups, McDermott's potential use of his starters adds a wrinkle of volatility to this one.
The possibility of the starters not playing the full game is seemingly being factored into the current spread, given the Bills would likely be at least 9-point favorites versus a Jets side that just came off a month of December that featured a historically bad -107 point differential.
With Brady Cook forced into action at QB and several key defenders traded away earlier in the year, the Jets' roster has become particularly abysmal, and you can defend head coach Aaron Glenn in that regard.
Still, it's becoming fairly clear that Glenn may not be the ideal option to lead the Jets next season, considering how historically bad his side has been this season.
New York is now 30th in offensive DVOA and 31st in defensive DVOA. You'd be hard-pressed to argue that any coach would have gotten much out of QBs Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor and Brady Cook, but aside from their strong special teams play, this has been arguably the worst Jets side in recent memory, which is saying something.
Cook holds a passer rating of 52.9, a completion percentage of 58.8, and has thrown six more interceptions than passing touchdowns. The Jets have lost by an average of 27.6 points over the last three games and averaged just 12 points on offense.
Though the Bills did suppress the Eagles' running game effectively last week, their run defense has been their greatest weakness this season, and it's obvious to say that a Jets win in this matchup would surely revolve around a big performance from Breece Hall and the rushing game.
Hall is still listed as questionable after logging limited practices on Thursday and Friday. If Hall is unable to play, Khalil Herbert and Kene Nwangwu would likely split carries, as Isaiah Davis has been ruled out with a concussion.
After breaking the record for worst point differential in the month of December, the Jets defense will look to avoid being on the wrong end of another pair of historic records in this matchup.
The Jets have not recorded an interception on defense and will look to avoid becoming the first team to go a complete season without one, while they are also in line to break the record for fewest turnovers if they do not record three in this matchup.
The Jets defense has also recorded the second-fewest sacks and holds the second-lowest pressure rate in the league. Their defense holds the fourth-worst per-play EPA this season and the worst in the NFL over the last four matchups.
The Bills were ultimately unable to overcome another slow first half in last week's matchup versus the Eagles and are now 3-11 ATS in the first half this season in games that they were favored to win. They are 11-5 in the second half ATS this season, while Allen is now 86-50-3 ATS in the second half in his career.
It seems that trend has come down to the team's more passive play-calling in the first half during Allen's tenure, coupled with Allen's ability to pick apart softer coverage later in games and the fact that he relies more heavily upon his running abilities in more dire situations.
It will be interesting to see if that trend continues in this matchup, as the team would likely prefer Allen to tune up for the postseason with 2-3 strong quarters to ensure the chance to grab the sixth seed without taxing the starters too heavily.
Buffalo's offense has been quite effective in high-leverage downs this season, ranking fourth in third-down conversion rate and sixth in red zone efficiency.
Allen ranks fifth in QBR this season, and the Bills' offense ranks third in per-play EPA. They also rank second in team rushing yards, though James Cook actually holds a per-play EPA of just 0.03 per attempt this season.
Most teams in the wide-open AFC look to be entirely well-rounded juggernauts relative to most seasons, and the Bills' most notable concern has been their defense, specifically their inability to stuff the run. They were able to hold the Eagles to 82 rushing yards from 26 attempts.
As the secondary has held up effectively, the Bills' defense has allowed an EPA of 0.00 per play this season and ranks 14th in points allowed per drive.
Jets vs Bills Predictions, Betting Analysis
Though the Bills have struggled in the first half this season, this appears to be a logical time to go against the trends and back them to cover the first-half spread of -4.5.
This should be a spot where the Bills have some urgency to garner an early lead and get themselves well situated to get the starters out of the game.
Given just how horrible the Jets defense has been of late, it should be an attainable goal for Allen and the offense to start sharp in this game and find more success early on than we have seen at times this season in more difficult matchups.
Week 17 underdogs of more than a touchdown have been profitable in recent years, and it would be foolish to believe the Jets will simply lie down in their final game of the season versus a division rival.
Considering how ineffective Cook has been, though, and the play of the Jets defense, it's still hard for me to believe they can hang around in this matchup.
It wouldn't be surprising if the first half of this game looks similar to what we saw last week when the Jets took on Drake Maye, and there looks to be value in backing the Bills to win the first half by five or more.
Pick: Bills First Half Spread -4.5 (-110)
Jets vs Bills Betting Trends
Jets vs Bills Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Highmark Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Jan. 4 |
| Time: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | CBS |
For the latest on NFL injuries, be sure to check out our NFL Injury Report page.
