Jets vs Raiders Odds, Spread, Pick | Sunday Night Football Prediction
Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Wilson (left) and Davante Adams.
Jets vs Raiders Odds, Spread | Sunday Night Football
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 36 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 36 -110o / -110u | -105 |
The NFL Week 10 Sunday slate concludes at Allegiant Stadium, and you can find Jets vs Raiders odds — and a pick and prediction against the spread — for Sunday Night Football in this SNF betting guide.
Jets vs Raiders is nearly a pick'em, as New York is -1 on the point spread depending on the sportsbook. The game total over/under is 36.
The Jets are out west for their second primetime game in a row looking to bounce back after the Chargers snapped their three-game winning streak on Monday night. The Raiders are riding high after a dominant win over the Giants in interim head coach Antonio Pierce's first game. Will the Raiders suffer a letdown, or will the Zach Wilson-led Jets offense continue to be their downfall?
Find out in my Sunday Night Football betting preview, which includes a Jets vs Raiders pick.
Jets vs Raiders Prediction
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Jets and Raiders match up statistically:
Jets vs. Raiders DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 30 | 20 | |
| Pass DVOA | 29 | 15 | |
| Rush DVOA | 26 | 29 |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 29 | 6 | |
| Pass DVOA | 28 | 4 | |
| Rush DVOA | 27 | 21 |
This will be start No. 3 for Aidan O'Connell, a fourth-round pick out of Purdue who's given the Raiders superior quarterback play compared to veterans Jimmy Garoppolo and Brian Hoyer by simply not turning the ball over as much.
- O'Connell: 64.9 CMP%, 6.8 YPA, 2.6% INT
- Garoppolo/Hoyer: 63.3 CMP%, 6.8 YPA, 5.2% INT
O'Connell's main issue in his first start was that he held the ball too long, taking a whopping seven sacks while averaging 2.74 seconds to throw. On 38 dropbacks since, he has not taken a single sack and has gotten the ball out in 2.17 seconds on average — the fastest in the league over that span (min. 10 dropbacks). The quick game will be key against a Jets defense that ranks fourth in pressure rate (35.0%), especially with elite left tackle Kolton Miller doubtful to play due to a shoulder injury.
O'Connell has also been a boon for Josh Jacobs, which is another key against the Jets, who rank fourth in DVOA against the pass and 21st versus the run.
- Jacobs in O'Connell starts: 25.5 touches, 118.5 scrimmage yards, 4.65 yards per touch, 1.5 TDs
- Jacobs in Garoppolo/Hoyer starts: 19.4 touches, 73.0 scrimmage yards, 3.76 yards per touch, 0.29 TDs
Unlike Zach Wilson, who is saddled with a who's who of washed former Packers receivers — Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Malik Taylor — and the ghost of Dalvin Cook, O'Connell's supporting cast sets him up for success.
Davante Adams is one of the few receivers who can win against Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed on the outside. Jakobi Meyers has taken advantage of the attention Adams draws to become a TD machine. New offensive coordinator Bo Hardegree started working in deep threat Tre Tucker, slot maven Hunter Renfrow and first-round tight end Michael Mayer, giving O'Connell ample and effective options that don't involve targeting Gardner and Reed on the outside.
Bet New York vs. Las Vegas at FanDuel
For the first time in a long time, the Raiders have a respectable pass defense, clocking in at 15th in DVOA.
Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham has seen his unit allow the second-fewest rate of explosive passing plays (8.5%), which forces opposing offenses to methodically drive down the field. That is not Wilson's forte, obviously: The Jet offense is last in plays per drive (5.1) and yards per drive (22.2), and 31st in points per drive (1.15).
The best hope for New York is Breece Hall exploiting a Raiders run defense ranked fourth-worst by DVOA, but that's easier said than done as the Jets' offensive line ranks 27th in Adjusted Line Yards (3.74) and 28th in PFF run-blocking grade (50.4).
Hall has failed to break a run longer than 10 yards since Week 5. Pierce has also vowed to turn the Raiders into a more hard-nosed team that takes pride in stopping the run — though Saquon Barkley averaged 5.6 yards per carry on 16 carries against them last week. The Raiders only allowed Barkley to break one run of 15 or more yards, however, which is a positive sign for their defense heading into this matchup.
As luck would have it, O'Connell's two starts this season have come against the Chargers and Giants, which also happen to be the Jets' two most recent opponents. Both teams lost to the Chargers and beat the Giants, but that is where the similarities end.
- Points scored: LV 47, NYJ 20
- Points allowed: LV 30, NYJ 37
- Point differential: LV +17, NYJ -17
- Sacks taken: LV 7, NYJ 12
- Third-down conversion rate: LV 24.0%, NYJ 15.6%
- Turnovers: LV 3, NYJ 5
Another concern for the Jets is that their numbers may be inflated due to essentially playing 75% of their games at home thus far. The Jets-Giants matchup was a Jets road game for counting purposes, but in reality, the Jets have only played two actual games outside of their home stadium.
Like most other bad quarterbacks, Wilson has seen a drop-off in performance on the road compared to at home in his career.
- Wilson home: 58.9 CMP%, 6.5 YPA, 14 TD, 12 INT, 77.6 rating
- Wilson road: 53.5 CMP%, 6.0 YPA, 6 TD, 11 INT, 64.7 rating
Jets vs. Raiders
Betting Picks & Predictions
In a year that's seen countless backup quarterbacks pitted against each other, the edge comes from understanding which quarterback to fade. When Zach Wilson is involved, the answer is almost always going to be Zach Wilson.
There's a pretty big cushion of spots where fading Wilson has been a profitable endeavor: According to our Bet Labs data, Wilson is 41% ATS any time he's been favored OR a dog under six, including 1-6-1 with a -4.56 average ATS margin in his last eight in that spot.
This rejuvenated Raiders team under Antonio Pierce is going to be tough for opponents to prepare for early on in his tenure due to the unpredictability that comes with a 180-degree shift in philosophy from Josh McDaniels. The vibes are also strong, as evidenced by the team openly smoking victory cigars in the locker room last week.
In addition to all of that, the Jets will also be traveling across the country on a short week, which does not bode well for them based on past history. Per Action Labs, East Coast teams traveling west on a short week are 7-17 (29%) ATS since 2004, failing to cover by 5.7 points per game.
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All data is from FTN Fantasy unless otherwise noted.
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