Jets vs Patriots Prediction, Pick | NFL Week 18 Odds

My Jets vs Patriots prediction & pick targets an Ezekiel Elliott rushing yards prop.

Jets vs Patriots odds have New England installed as a two-point favorite with a game total of 29.5, which is the lowest total of the NFL regular season.

Week 18 brings us plenty of games with huge playoff implications. Divisions will be decided, player bonuses will be achieved and football fans everywhere will enjoy their last full NFL slate. While this game has no implications for the playoffs, there is plenty of motivation for both teams to take down their divisional rival and head into the 2024 season on a high note.

The Jets visit the Patriots in what could be Bill Belichick’s last game with New England. It is easy for players and coaches to sleepwalk through the end of the season, but the Jets have pride to play for. New York has not beaten the Patriots since Week 16 … of 2015.

The Jets haven’t done well offensively this year, averaging just 4.4 yards per play and 15.7 points per game. Incompetent quarterback play is largely the reason for this — all you need to do is look at their passing numbers.

New York is averaging 5.7 passing yards per attempt, which is 31st, only ahead of the Panthers. While it is easy to blame the Jets quarterback carousel for all of these issues, part of the blame also falls on the offensive line.

The Jets have allowed sacks on nearly 10% of dropbacks and have the second-lowest pass-block rating (per PFF). They have had offensive success on the ground, however. While 4.2 yards per rush attempt is just middle of the pack, that's still far superior to what they muster through the air.

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New York’s defense is top notch, specifically its pass defense. The unit allows the fifth-fewest passing yards per attempt and generate pressure without having to blitz. It will be difficult for the Patriots to get anything going in the air.

New England's defense excels at stopping the run — it allows the fewest number of yards per attempt (3.2). The Pats aren't good and often found themselves losing late in games this year. That makes this number even more impressive since game situation dictates that their opponent run the ball late to chew up clock.

The Jets’ offensive strength is running the football, but I can’t see how they will have much success against the best rush defense in the league.

The last time these teams faced off, Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall both had 18 rushing yards and the Jets totaled 38 in all.

The snow and wind will effect the game plan for both teams. I expect the Patriots to have more success on the ground in this matchup. Thus, I'm targeting Ezekiel Elliott to win the race to 20 rushing yards.

Pick: Ezekiel Elliot Race to 20 Rushing Yards (+120; DraftKings)