NFL Best Bets: Sunday Afternoon Week 10 Picks, Predictions
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NFL Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from Sunday afternoon's NFL Week 10 slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 9:30 a.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 4:05 p.m. | ||
| 4:05 p.m. | ||
| 4:25 p.m. | ||
| 4:25 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Colts vs. Patriots
The Colts are still the only team in the NFL to score at least 20 points in every game this season. Given Gardner Minshew's recent regression, it’s only a matter of time before that’s no longer true, and Sunday in Germany may finally be the time.
The Colts overs have been cashing left and right under Shane Steichen, but last week’s close at 44 against a terrible Carolina offense is a sign that we’ve reached the peak of the market on Steichen/Colts totals.
The game ended 27-13, but only because Bryce Young threw two pick-sixes to Kenny Moore II, and thus the Colts defense itself outscored the Panthers. Indianapolis was inept offensively with 195 total yards, 3.5 yards per play and fewer than three yards per carry.
Speed has given the Patriots defense trouble all year, and the Colts' best wide receiver from a speed/separation standpoint is rookie Josh Downs. Downs left the game early in Week 9 with a knee issue, a continuation of the injury that nearly led to him missing the game.
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If Downs is out, the Colts will have no way to stretch this mediocre Patriots defense down the field. The Patriots defense continues to perform solidly when the offense hasn’t committed multiple back-breaking turnovers to put them in extremely negative game scripts.
The biggest problem for the Colts of late has been overcoming all of the injuries in the secondary. The inexperience has led to a lot of holes in coverage, but New England, like Carolina last week, is one of the offenses least equipped to exploit this weakness.
I know the Pace is really high for these two teams (first and second in NFL), but this total is still too high at 43.5 in Germany.
Packers vs. Steelers
I have my concerns about the Steelers offense, but it has looked a little better with WR Diontae Johnson back in the lineup over the past two games. Pittsburgh has historically had a very good home-field advantage, while the Packers are only 1-3 on the road this season.
Ultimately, the best unit in this game is the Steelers' defensive line, which has the seventh-best pressure rate in the NFL and is top 10 in both DVOA against the pass and dropback EPA. With Green Bay struggling to get much going on the ground this season, the Packers might have to rely on Jordan Love and the passing game, which is great news for Pittsburgh.
I'll take the better team (in my opinion) to cover the three points at home.
Pick: Steelers -3 (-105)
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Packers vs. Steelers
Mike Tomlin snapped back at a reporter who asked why Kenny Pickett has struggled so much in the first three quarters of games this season (and last year, too). Tomlin chose to highlight Pickett’s success in the fourth quarter, which was on full display in the win against Tennessee on Thursday Night Football last week.
Pickett is dead last in EPA + CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) composite in the first three quarters and fourth to last in Success Rate. Pickett is then eighth in Success Rate and seventh in EPA per play in the fourth.
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The Steelers have a knack for hanging around in games and then executing just enough in the fourth quarter to stay competitive and play close games. That makes them a consistently live underdog, but how is Pittsburgh laying a field goal or more here?
The Steelers have been outgained in every game this season. The offense is 18th in DVOA and just 22nd in rush DVOA, the primary weakness of the Packers defense.
Pittsburgh has a marginally worse Offensive Success Rate and a marginally better Defensive Success Rate. The Steelers are not that much better than the Packers to warrant this line being a full three points.
Pick: Packers +3 (+100)
49ers vs. Jaguars
By Sam Farley
After three straight defeats I can see why the 49ers are just three-point favorites in Jacksonville. Just ask yourself, though, whether you would have taken 49ers -3 in this game last month.
You would have, and you should today.
No team in the NFL needed a bye week more than the 49ers and now they're back with a Brock Purdy who should finally be 100%. The last time we saw Purdy, it looked like he was still feeling the aftermath of his concussion.
The 49ers also are likely to welcome back both LT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel who should elevate this offense. Plus they added Chase Young to the best roster in football.
Take that -3 while you can.
Pick: 49ers -3 (-115)
Lions vs. Chargers
This game is a mismatch. The Lions have the better offense and the far better defense. In fact, Detroit may have the better quarterback right now with as well as Goff is playing and with Herbert struggling some with that finger injury. This Chargers defense is ripe for the picking, and Ben Johnson's offense should be ready to fire on all cylinders coming out of the bye.
Los Angeles ranks near last in the league in Pass Rush Win Rate, so Goff should have all day to pick apart this defense. Detroit has a big rest advantage and it might steal home-field advantage with the way fans have been traveling this season.
The Lions rank No. 2 in first down DVOA offensively, and the Chargers' defense is bad against early downs and last in the first half by DVOA. I think the Lions will dominate an overconfident team that they are simply much better than.
Pick: Lions -2.5 (-110)
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The Chargers are averaging 26.2 points per game at home this season and are playing at the second-fastest pace of play in the league in the first half of games. Justin Herbert leading the no-huddle attack has been effective at keeping the defense in predictable sets and does allow for defensive lineman to sub out of the game. This is one of the best tactics to negate pass rushers, which is something I expect the Chargers to do once again in this game.
I also expect Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to have plenty of shot plays dialed up after the bye week. The 23rd-ranked Chargers defense, according to DVOA, has been much stronger against the run this season, but it still ranks 31st in the league on yards allowed per first down.
The Lions offense is averaging 6.6 yards per play on first down, which ranks third in the NFL. I don't expect Goff to be facing many long down and distance situations.
Perfect playing conditions, pace of play, and the inability of the Chargers defense to get stops: This will send this game soaring over the total.
Pick: Over 48.5
Commanders vs. Seahawks
Trading their two best pass rushers didn’t stop the Commanders from a solid defensive performance against the poor Patriots offense, but the lack of a pass rush is much more likely to play a factor against Geno Smith and the Seahawks this weekend.
The Seahawks were rightfully downgraded off that horrendous performance in Baltimore where the Ravens completely took apart the Shane Waldron offense, but I think the market went too far with this line.
I still think this line should be a touchdown in Seattle as the Seahawks aim to bounce back. The Commanders defense struggled to deal with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown because they didn't pressure Jalen Hurts often enough.
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Geno Smith is completing 72.5% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt from a clean pocket this season, and the Seattle offense is still a top-seven unit on early downs.
His numbers have crumbled under pressure this year — a major area of regression — but his post-snap processing is still elite, and there will be a ton of big windows to exploit against Washington.
Seattle has quietly put together a solid pass rush, and that’s trouble for Sam Howell, who still takes far too many sacks. The Seahawks are ninth in Pass Rush Win Rate and PFF Pass Rush Grade.
Commanders vs. Seahawks
Don't overreact to the Baltimore loss. The Ravens are really good and it was a bad matchup. This is another game against the DMV but Seattle is a different team at home and Washington will fly across the country for a second straight road game.
Washington's defense is reeling, and with no pass rush to get after Geno Smith, he should have a big game against an extremely vulnerable secondary. Seattle's offensive metrics still look terrific, and Shane Waldron's offense is ready to break out. This could be the spot.
This is my favorite bet of the week. I grabbed Seattle -5.5 and love the Seahawks at anything below the key number of seven. Teams with at least a 60% win rate coming off a 20+ point loss cover the spread the following game 68% of the time. In other words, teams we know are good, like the Seahawks, bounce back after ugly games. Late in the season from Weeks 10 through 15, that trend leaps to a sparkling 39-6 ATS, an 87% hit rate.
Even good teams have bad days. Seattle is good. Trust the good team in a great bounce-back spot.
Pick: Seahawks -5.5 (-115)
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