Ultimate Week 9 NFL Betting Guide: Picks & Predictions For Every Game

Ultimate Week 9 NFL Betting Guide: Picks & Predictions For Every Game article feature image
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USA Today Sports. Pictured: Odell Beckham Jr., Aaron Rodgers, Leonard Fournette

  • See our staff's betting picks and predictions for every NFL Week 9 game.
  • We'll analyze the betting odds for Packers-Chargers, Browns-Broncos and more.

With the Texans and Jaguars kicking off from London at 9:30 a.m. ET, we have a full marathon of NFL football to look forward to on Sunday, and our experts are here to help you find the best betting angles.

Here are all the games they’ll hit on:

  • Texans vs. Jaguars: 9:30 a.m. ET
  • Bears at Eagles: 1 p.m. ET
  • Vikings at Chiefs: 1 p.m. ET
  • Colts at Steelers: 1 p.m. ET
  • Jets at Dolphins: 1 p.m. ET
  • Redskins at Bills: 1 p.m. ET
  • Titans at Panthers: 1 p.m. ET
  • Lions at Raiders: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Buccaneers at Seahawks: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Packers at Chargers: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Browns at Broncos: 4:25 p.m. ET

See how they’re betting all 11, complete with analysis of the biggest matchups and much more. (Including picks for every game.)


Go To: HOU-JAC | CHI-PHI | MIN-KC | IND-PIT | NYJ-MIA | WAS-BUF | TEN-CAR | DET-OAK | TB-SEA | GB-LAC | CLE-DEN


Texans vs. Jaguars Betting Odds

  • Odds: Texans -1.5
  • Over/Under: 46
  • Location: London
  • Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. ET
  • TV Channel: NFL Network

The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars will take their AFC South rivalry across the pond this Sunday. The market has pegged Deshaun Watson and Co. as 1.5-point favorites, but are they discounting the Jags?

Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, featuring the biggest mismatch and staff picks.


All odds as of Friday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


Texans-Jaguars Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Both are banged up

The Jags downgraded OL Andrew Norwell (knee) to a DNP on Thursday, which typically isn’t a good sign. Their linebacking core also continues to be banged up with two of their starting linebackers still missing practice, while Najee Goode (toe) has returned to limited practice.

Jacksonville’s two key offensive players to monitor are D.J. Chark (quad) and Dede Westbrook (neck/shoulder). Chark should be fine, but Westbrook left last week very early and never returned.

The Texans did us a solid and already ruled out five of their players. Will Fuller, OL Greg Mancz, CB Bradley Roby, S Tashaun Gipson and CB Lonnie Johnson all won’t be traveling to London. Justin Bailey

Note: All injury info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Jaguars Passing Attack vs. Texans Pass Defense

Lost in the incredible production by Leonard Fournette has been the quality efficiency by the Jaguars’ pass attack. Led by rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew, they currently rank eighth Football Outsiders’ pass offense DVOA.

With this game being played in Wembley Stadium, the Jaguars also have a distinct familiarity advantage over the Texans.

Gardner Minshew-Chris Conley
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Gardner Minshew, Chris Conley

Houston’s 23rd ranked pass defense will be severely handicapped with injuries to each of its top three cornerbacks. Veteran CB Johnathan Joseph was held out of last week’s win with neck and hamstring injuries but is hoping to play, while Roby and Johnson aren’t traveling.

With a weak secondary, the Texans will try to pressure Minshew, who ranks only 26th in pressured completion percentage (PlayerProfiler). That, of course, will be more difficult with All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt out for the season with a torn pectoral.

Quarterbacks have enjoyed the safest of fantasy floors against the Texans. Over the past four games, opposing quarterbacks have averaged 303.5 passing yards and 3.3 touchdowns while allowing QB10 or better performances.

With an injured secondary and no Watt, the Texans will need to find a way to contain the Jaguars passing game even with the burden of also stopping Fournette’s efficient ground game. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Texans -2
  • Projected Total: 46.5

Expert Picks

Randle: Jaguars +2

Jacksonville holds a huge advantage over first time opponents in London. Houston will be playing its first game at Wembley Stadium, making Jacksonville even more attractive as the underdog.

Jacksonville has a 2-1 record when playing in London and receiving between zero and seven points, including a 44-7 destruction of Baltimore in 2017.

The Jaguars have matched up well against the Texans, covering the spread in four of their last six meetings. That includes a 13-12 loss in Houston, when Fournette was stopped on a two-point conversation with 36 seconds left.

The Texans have lost Watt and come to London with a decimated secondary. The Jaguars have enjoyed quality quarterback play from Minshew, who has 11 touchdowns and just one interceptions in his seven starts.

Houston has been stout against the run, but Watt’s absence will be a problem against the NFL’s second-leading rusher, Fournette. The Texans have also allowed the most receptions (59) and receiving yards (476) to opposing running backs.

I wouldn’t bet this at anything lower than Jacksonville +2, which is still available at some books. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Bears at Eagles Betting Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Eagles -4.5
  • Over/Under: 41.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Bears running back David Montgomery had the best game of his young career last weekend against the Chargers, but can he repeat that against a strong Eagles run defense?

Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, complete with analysis of the biggest mismatch and our staff picks.

Bears-Eagles Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Bears

Once again, the Bears have just one player on their injury report, and he isn’t a starter. Congrats to them.

DeSean Jackson has gotten in limited practices, so it’s possible he’s able to his return to the field on Sunday. After an early exit in Week 8 and a missed practice on Wednesday, Miles Sanders (shoulder) was a full go on Thursday. Philly continues to beat up on the defensive side of the ball with LB Nigel Bradham (ankle) and DT Tim Jernigan (foot) still being held out of practice. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Eagles Run Defense vs. Bears Run Game

Even after Montgomery’s breakout 27-carry, 135-yard day on the ground last week, the Bears are still ranked fourth-worst in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards (3.62) and third-worst in raw running back yards per carry (3.36).

bears-redskins-fantasy football-monday night football-koerner
Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: David Montgomery

The Eagles have had a disappointing season, but their run defense isn’t a problem: Philly is ranked third in adjusted line yards allowed (3.32) and second in raw running back yards per carry allowed (3.41). That represents a drastic step up in class from the Chargers’ unit that Montgomery ran all over, which ranks 18th in adjusted line yards (4.30) and 23rd in running back yards per carry allowed (4.49).

Overall, the Eagles are ranked sixth in rushing DVOA but 18th in passing DVOA.

Even though Matt Nagy has appeared increasingly petrified of trusting quarterback Mitch False-bisky, the Bears head coach would be wise to let his maligned signal-caller sling it all over the field in this contest. But hey, if the Bears can’t run, perhaps they won’t put themselves in a position that Nagy undoubtedly fears most of all at this point: Field-goal range. Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Eagles -4
  • Projected Total: 43.5

Expert Picks

Mike Randle: Eagles -5

After Montgomery’s overall RB7 breakout performance against the Chargers, the Bears would hope to keep his momentum going this week at Philadelphia. However, the Eagles’ stout run defense provides much more resistance than the Chargers did at Soldier Field.

Last week’s 31-13 destruction of Buffalo on the road provides hope that Philadelphia has started its annual late push toward the playoffs. Since losing defensive lineman Akiem Hicks, Chicago has allowed 4.26 yards per carry six total rushing touchdowns over the past three games. Look for a “revenge game” from motivated former Bears running back Jordan Howard, whom the Eagles may give plenty of carries.

Trubisky has struggled all season, and he’s been especially bad under pressure. He ranks 30th among all signal-callers with just a 26% completion percentage when under duress.

The Bears need their running game to ease the burden off their below-average passing game. Trubisky ranks 29th in passing yards and 30th with only five passing touchdowns this season. This line has climbed from three to five points, but it still isn’t high enough. I would bet Philadelphia up to -6. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Vikings at Chiefs Betting Odds

  • Odds: Not available
  • Over/Under: Not available
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Patrick Mahomes’ status for Sunday remains uncertain, so this line is currently off the board. But our experts are breaking down every other angle of this matchup for the time being.

Our staff highlights the latest injury updates for both teams and identifies the biggest mismatch outside the passing game below.

Vikings-Chiefs Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Vikings

The only player who was on Minnesota’s injury report was Adam Thielen (hamstring), who has been limited both days of practice this week, though it appears he’s trending in the right direction.

The Chiefs have yet to rule out Mahomes (knee), who originally had a three to five week timetable to return, but he’s been able to get in limited practice sessions since last week. Still, I’d be surprised if he played.

Kansas City is otherwise getting somewhat healthier with DL Chris Jones (groin) and OL Andrew Wylie (ankle) returning to full practice. Still, OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (ankle), OL Eric Fisher (groin), DL 00(ankle) have been missing practice time. Justin Bailey

Frank Clark
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Frank Clark

Biggest Mismatch

Vikings Run Offense vs. Chiefs Run Defense

Although Kirk Cousins is currently playing at an elite level with his 9.9 adjusted yards per attempt, the real edge the Vikings have is their running attack.

With the offseason addition of center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Josh Kline, as well as rushing guru Gary Kubiak as an offensive advisor, the Vikings’ offensive line has improved significantly. In 2018, they were No. 23 with 4.09 adjusted line yards per attempt. This year, they are No. 6 with 4.84. In fact, they’re top-six in all of Football Outsiders’ rushing offensive line metrics.

Since taking over as the offensive coordinator in Week 15 last season, Kevin Stefanski has overseen an aggressively ground-based system. In his 11 play-calling games, the Vikings have a 52.0% run rate. For this season specifically, they have a 53.4% run rate.

With a better offensive line and a coordinator who leans on the run, it’s no wonder running back Dalvin Cook is having a breakout season: He’s No. 1 with 346 yards created (per Player Profiler).

As for the Chiefs, they are straight-up bad against the run. Last year, they were No. 31 with a 65.3 Pro Football Focus run defense grade. This year, they’ve somehow gotten even worse, ranking No. 32 with a 57.5 mark.

In early-down success rate allowed, the Chiefs are dead last in the league at 58% (per Sharp Football Stats).

Coaches often don’t act rationally, but I expect the Vikings to attack the Chiefs regularly with their ground game.

Entering Week 5, the Chiefs looked nearly unbeatable, but since then they’ve lost three of four games to opponents who funneled touches to their running backs in order to keep the explosive Chiefs offense on the sideline. In a copycat league, the Vikings will likely follow the formula that other teams have successfully used.

Additionally, the Chiefs have a funnel defense that naturally skews opposing offenses to the ground game. The Chiefs are No. 4 against the pass (-7.6% DVOA) but No. 30 against the run (7.3% DVOA, per Football Outsiders). It makes sense for opponents to attack them where they are weakest, and the Chiefs are obviously weak when it comes to stopping the run.

And this weakness is all the more apparent because of the injury issues the Chiefs have. Jones (groin) and Clark (neck) both missed Week 8 and are uncertain for Week 9. The Chiefs could be without the top players on their defensive line.

As bad as the Chiefs normally are in run defense, they might be even worse this week. Matthew Freedman


Colts at Steelers Betting Odds

  • Odds: Colts -1
  • Over/Under: 42.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

The market has moved in favor of the Indianapolis Colts since this game opened as a pick’em, but do the Pittsburgh Steelers really deserve to be home underdogs?

Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, featuring the biggest mismatch and spread picks.

Colts-Steelers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Both are banged up

T.Y. Hilton (calf) was downgraded to no practice on Thursday after being limited on Wednesday, so it’s possible he got dinged up in practice. Eric Ebron (ankle) was another downgrade, missing practice on Thursday after being a full go on Wednesday.

S Malik Hooker (knee) and DL Justin Houston (calf) were added to the injury report on Thursday, but still managed limited practice sessions.

The Steelers planned to limit James Conner (shoulder) this week, which they’re doing so far, holding him out on Wednesday and Thursday. We likely won’t know his real chances of suiting up until Friday’s final injury report. Jaylen Samuels (knee) has remained a full go in practice and could be in for increased workload pending the health of Conner. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Steelers WRs vs. Colts Secondary

The matchup to watch will be the Steelers’ excellent defensive front vs. the Colts’ dominant offensive line. Both units rank in the top 20 in adjusted sack rate and should be at war throughout the day at Heinz Field.

Overall, I actually favor the Steelers defense. They’ve been much better since bringing in Minkah Fitzpatrick to shore up the backend of the secondary.

But the biggest mismatch will be when the Steelers have the ball.

Mason Rudolph-JuJu Smith Schuster
Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mason Rudolph, JuJu Smith-Schuster

The Colts grade out a little better against the pass, but they’re not great, ranking in the bottom 10 against No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 receivers. And now they’re dealing with injuries to their two best cover corners: Pierre Desir and Kenny Moore. If Moore isn’t 100% — and especially if he doesn’t suit up — JuJu Smith-Schuster could go off in the slot. Keep a close eye on the Colts’ injury report later in the week as Moore is so important to what the Indy defense wants to do, which is even more true against Smith-Schuster.

Pittsburgh also has the speed on the outside with Diontae Johnson and James Washington to exploit Rock Ya-Sin, who Pro Football Focus grades 90th in pass coverage out of 96 corners with at least 200 coverage snaps. Ya-Sin is still very raw in his technique, which resulted in the rookie being called for five penalties last Sunday.

Look for Mason Rudolph to continue his momentum from the second half against Miami and make enough plays through the air against a vulnerable Colts secondary to get the win.

One notable mismatch on special teams: The Steelers have an edge in the kicking game as Chris Boswell looks like he’s back on track after a disappointing 2018 campaign. Meanwhile, Adam Vinatieri looks like he’s nearing the end of his Hall-of-Fame career as he’s arguably been the worst kicker this season.

In a game that should be competitive, a missed field goal or extra point could make all the difference in one of the hardest stadiums to kick in. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Colts -0.5
  • Projected Total: 42

Expert Picks

Chris Raybon: Steelers +1

The Steelers are 3-4 while the Colts are 5-2 with a signature win over a hobbled Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs still fresh in everyone’s minds, but make no mistake: This is a coin-flip game.

The Steelers are understandably hard to get a read on; their three wins have come against the Bengals, Chargers and Dolphins, who are a combined 3-20. I think it’s more telling, though, that their four losses have come against teams that are a combined 26-4 — to the Patriots, 49ers, Seahawks and Ravens — and three of those losses were by four or fewer points, with the only blowout coming against the Patriots, before Rudolph had taken over and before the team had acquired difference-making defensive back, Fitzpatrick.

Defense is the Steelers’ strength: The team is ranked ninth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA — which would obviously be even better if you remove the game against the Pats — and that defense should pose problems for a Colts offense that struggled to eke out a 15-13 win over Denver last week at home.

Also a concern for the Colts in what’s projected to be a close game is the worn-out leg of their 46-year-old relic of a placekicker, Vinatieri, who has missed four field goals and, even more troubling, four extra points.

This is a battle of two well-coached teams adept at masking their deficiencies, but give me the team with the more ferocious defense getting points at home. Per our Bet Labs data, Mike Tomlin is 32-17-2 (65%) against the spread as an underdog, including 8-3-2 (73%) ATS as a home ‘dog. He’s a good bet to pad that total. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Stuckey: Steelers +1

I completely agree with Chris here as I like the Steelers catching 1 here.

I see distinct advantages in all three phases for a team that’s playing much better of late. From a pure yards per play perspective, Pitt is allowing almost a full yard fewer while the two teams are about even on offense. As a result of its 5-2 record, the perception surrounding the Colts is a little inflated here in my opinion.

Indianapolis is so well-coached, which always scares me when I look to fade the Colts, but this is too much value to pass up on. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Jets at Dolphins Betting Odds

  • Odds: Jets -3
  • Over/Under: 42.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

In a game only a bettor could love, the 1-6 New York Jets face the 0-7 Miami Dolphins. While both teams are at the bottom of the league standings, bettors like the Jets to cover the 3-point spread.

Should you follow the public and back the Jets?

Our staff breaks down the matchup including injuries, mismatches and a pick.

Jets-Dolphins Injury Report

The Dolphins placed cornerback Xavien Howard (knee) on injured reserve, and corner Ken Webster (ankle) has yet to practice, potentially making them even more thin in the secondary.

The Jets have more than 12 players on their injury report as either limited or missing practice. At this point, it might be easier for them to just tell us who did practice. They’re expected to be without linebacker C.J. Mosley (groin) for a few weeks, which isn’t great since fellow linebackers Blake Cashman (shoulder) and Neville Hewitt (neck/knee) have all missed practice.

Corner Trumaine Johnson is also listed on their injury report (DNP on Wednesday and Thursday) because of his ankles, as in both of his ankles. I can’t say that’s surprising since he’s allowed a 76% catch rate and 103.8 passer rating when targeted this year, per Pro Football Focus. — Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Le’Veon Bell vs. Dolphins Linebackers

The Jets are a lowly 1-6 and have been incapable of getting anything going on offense, but I like this spot for Bell. For the season, he has an elite 91.4% snap rate and is tied for No. 7 with 21.6 opportunities (carries plus targets) per game.

patriots-vs-jets-odds-picks-predictions-monday night football-2019
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Le’Veon Bell

Bell has some upside, and that’s especially the case against the winless Dolphins.

It’s true that the Dolphins have had to deal with lots of negative game script, which has inflated their opponent rushing numbers, but they’ve allowed a league-high 141.7 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs.

Not all of that can be explained away because they’ve lost all their games. They’ve lost in part because they can be run on easily.

They rank 30th in running back rushing success rate allowed with a 57% mark. And they’re even worse in pass defense against running backs, who have a league-high 68% receiving success rate against the Dolphins.

No team has allowed more yards per target to opposing backs than the Dolphins have with their mark of 8.3.

Although they have a promising player in Raekwon McMillan, the Dolphins have big issues in the middle of their defense. Collectively, their linebackers have very poor PFF run defense and coverage grades:

  • Jerome Baker: 456 snaps | 48.9 run defense | 57.0 coverage
  • Sam Eguavoen: 343 snaps | 40.2 run defense | 50.0 coverage
  • Raekwon McMillan: 239 snaps | 73.7 run defense | 50.5 coverage

With such a unit, it’s not a surprise that the Dolphins are No. 31 with a 10.8% run defense DVOA and No. 32 with a 55.2% pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders) against running backs.

Even with a poor offensive line, Bell is No. 5 with an 85.9 PFF Elusive Rating and has the requisite skill to produce against probably the league’s worst defense.

This is the first time the Jets have been favored since Week 1, when Bell had his best performance of the season with 92 yards and a touchdown. With positive game script, Bell could rack up 120 yards and a touchdown. — Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Jets -5
  • Projected Total: 42

Expert Pick

PJ Walsh: Jets -3

This is among the worst matchups of the NFL season so far, but that doesn’t mean it’s not providing a solid betting opportunity.

Not only does our Bet Labs tool power The Action Network’s Pro System, but it also allows users to analyze historical data in order to find profitable trends and built their own winning systems.

My personal portfolio of systems is lighting up the Jets in this matchup, including a very simple angle that fades teams the week after going on the road to play on Monday Night Football.

Think about it — teams playing on Monday night are already at a disadvantage for their following game due to the short week, and being on the road means they have to spend some of that time traveling back home.

Teams in this spot, like Miami, are just 106-140-8 (43.1%) against the spread (ATS).

And it’s not only historical angles that like the Jets in this matchup. The Action Network’s Sean Koerner points out above this “true line” is Jets -5 via his power ratings, which represents plenty of value through the key number of -4 and onto the most important number in football betting, -3. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Redskins at Bills Betting Odds

  • Odds: Bills -9.5
  • Over/Under: 36.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Bills remain one of the biggest surprises of the season, but are they in for a trap against the struggling Redskins?

Our experts break down the matchup, complete with analysis of the biggest mismatch and a staff pick.

Redskins-Bills Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Bills

The Bills don’t have any major injuries of note, they’re quite healthy overall.

Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson (ankle), Chris Thompson (toe) and S Montae Nicholson (ankle) aren’t practicing for the Redskins. However, Peterson followed the same protocol last week and ended up playing. If he returns to practice on Friday, it’s likely he’ll play on Sunday. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Bills Pass Defense vs. Redskins Pass Offense

At the time of Jay Gruden’s firing, the Redskins were attempting 35.8 passes per game, 1.2 attempts per game above the league average of 34.6. In three games under Bill Callahan, they’ve hoisted a league-low 19.8 attempts per game.

Even though we know passing is more efficient than rushing, it would make some sense if Washington was actually okay at rushing, but according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, their rushing offense (28th) has actually been worse than their passing offense (26th).

That said, this week sets up as a good week for Callahan to take the air out of the ball. Not only is rookie Dwayne Haskins possibly making his first start in place of Case Keenum (concussion), but also because Buffalo’s defense is ranked sixth in passing DVOA.

Adrian Peterson-Fantasy Football
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Adrian Peterson

Aside from prime fantasy football buy-low candidate Terry McLaurin, who has accounted for a league-leading 49% of Washington’s air yards, per AirYards.com, the Redskins have little hope of moving the ball through the air against the Bills.

On the ground, there’s hope for Washington, as Buffalo’s defense is ranked just 28th against the run. Forecasted 12mph winds will only compound the probable struggles for Washington’s aerial attack, as wind speeds of 10mph or more tend to result in decreased passing efficiency and have led to the under hitting 56% of the time since 2003, per our Bet Labs data. Get ready for a heavy dose of running back Adrian Peterson — and an even heavier dose of punter Tress Way. Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Bills -10
  • Projected Total: 36

Expert Pick

Raybon: Under 37

Sean McDermott is a hard-nosed, defensive-minded head coach who prioritizes limiting big plays. He also has a mistake-prone quarterback in Josh Allen who must be protected. Those trends have made the Bills one of the best under bets in football.

Case in point: The under is 12-6 in Allen’s career starts.

Add in a Callahan offense attempting fewer than 20 passes per game on the other side as his team’s games have totaled 33, 9 and 28 points in his three games since taking over for Gruden, and you have the recipe for another under despite the minuscule total. And that’s before accounting for the wind factor, which, as I mentioned in the biggest mismatch section has led to a 56% hit rate for the under since 2003.

I bet this at 37, which is still available at some books. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Titans at Panthers Betting Odds

  • Odds: Panthers -3.5
  • Over/Under: 42
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Ryan Tannehill has impressed as Tennessee’s starting quarterback, but he faces a strong pass defense in Carolina this weekend.

Our experts break down this matchup, complete with analysis of the biggest mismatch and a staff pick.

Titans-Panthers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Panthers

The Panthers had a lengthy injury report on Wednesday, but most players returned to full practice by the time Thursday rolled around. Most of them appear on track to play with the exception of OL Greg Little (concussion).

Delanie Walker (ankle) continues to miss practice with his ankle injury. As Walker stated that this is a flare-up from the injury he suffered last season, I’d be surprised to see him play this week since he’s still missing practice. Jonnu Smith filled in nicely last week, going 6-78-1 on seven targets.

Starting center Ben Jones (concussion) hasn’t practiced this week either. His potential absence would be bad news for Tannehill since Jones is their best pass-blocker and the Panthers have a solid pass rush. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Panthers Pass Defense vs. Ryan Tannehill

On the surface, Tannehill acquitted himself well in his first two starts with the Titans, leading them to two wins while throwing five touchdowns to one interception. But his Total QBR of 37.7 would rank 26th among qualifiers, indicating that the Chargers’ 25th-ranked and Bucs’ 26th-ranked defenses in Football Outsiders’ passing DVOA may have had something to do with it.

This week, a much tougher test awaits Tannehill in the form of Carolina’s third-ranked unit in DVOA.

chargers-vs-titans-odds-sharp-betting-pick-ryan-tannehill-spread-over-under
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured:  Ryan Tannehill.

Relying on the NFL’s eighth-highest pressure rate (27.0%) and fourth-best coverage unit according to Pro Football Focus, the Panthers have limited rival passers to the third-lowest net yards per attempt figure in the league (5.2). Even in last week’s drubbing at the hands of San Francisco, Carolina permitted only 156 net passing yards. Meanwhile, despite facing two of the league’s worst pass defenses in his two starts, Tannehill’s mark sits at a middling 6.6, which doesn’t inspire much confidence heading into this matchup.

After the Panthers were dragged for 232 rushing yards in that game against the 49ers, Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith would be wise to lean on Derrick Henry and a defense that has only allowed one of its eight opponents this season to top 20 points this week.

Somewhat surprisingly considering the makeup and strengths of these teams, the Panthers enter this week riding a three-game over streak while the over has hit in two consecutive Titans games as well. But with how this matchup sets up and given the probable increased intensity of Carolina’s defense following last week’s embarrassment, it would hardly be a surprise if this game fell short of its total of 42. Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Panthers -3
  • Projected Total: 41.5

Expert Picks

Justin Bailey: Under 42

I think the Titans will struggle to move the ball in this spot against a Panthers that ranks fifth in defensive DVOA and allows just 5.1 yards per play, the fifth-best mark in the league. Additionally, the Titans rank just 26th in pace of play, and to make matters worse, Jones hasn’t been practicing this week. His potential absence would be an enormous setback for the Tennessee offense considering he’s one of the team’s best pass blockers and the Panthers rank second in adjusted sack rate.

The Titans are also an above-average defense, ranking 12th in defensive DVOA and allowing 5.3 yards per play. This game has 24-14 written all over it with Carolina and Tennessee ranking 20th and 27th in scoring rate this year.

I’d bet this down to 41. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Lions at Raiders Betting Odds

  • Odds: Raiders -2.5
  • Over/Under: 50.5
  • Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Raiders have spent more than 45 days away from their home stadium, but will be back in Oakland to face the Lions as 2.5-point favorites. As of Thursday, bettors are backing the Lions who are 4-3 against the spread this season.

Should you take the Raiders at home?

Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, featuring the biggest mismatch and a pick.

Lions-Raiders Injury Report

The Lions have some injuries of note, adding Tra Carson (hamstring) to the injury report on Thursday. This is notable after they released Paul Perkins earlier in the week.

If Carson is out, this could condense the Lions workload among their running backs. Cornerback Darius Slay (hamstring) was ruled out in Week 8 and has been getting in limited practices this week, suggesting he’s trending in the right direction.

Tyrell Williams (foot) returned to practicing in full on Thursday after finally returning last week, which is a good sign for the health of his foot issue.

The Raiders could be in big trouble on their offensive line since center Rodney Hudson (ankle) isn’t expected to play, and his backup, Andre James (ankle) also hasn’t practiced this week. This would cause a bit of a re-shuffle on their offensive line. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Lions Pass Offense vs. Raiders Pass Defense

In his first year with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, the gunslinging Matthew Stafford is having himself a bounce back campaign, ranking No. 1 with an 11.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT) and No. 5 with 8.9 adjusted yards per attempt.

And he has a strong collection of wide receivers.

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Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matthew Stafford (9).

Kenny Golladay is No. 7 at the position with a 16.9-yard aDOT and No. 3 with nine end-zone targets. He has gone for 100-plus yards or scored a touchdown in five of seven games this year and is a big-play machine.

Marvin Jones Jr. is less consistent than Golladay, but he’s tied for No. 12 with five end-zone targets, and only five wide receivers (including Golladay) have more touchdowns than Jones does with five. He’s averaging just 6.7 targets per game, but he’s doing a lot with a little thanks to his career-high 72.3% catch rate.

Danny Amendola has been an unexpectedly important contributor in the slot. He has just one touchdown, but he’s never been a big scorer, and even without regularly finding the end zone, he’s quietly on pace for the most prolific campaign of his career.

In three of six games, Amendola had 95-105 yards receiving and has exploited soft middle-of-the-field matchups when given the opportunity. He has a career-best 8.9 yards per target.

And Marvin Hall Jr. has contributed in spots as the No. 4 wide receiver. A field-stretching speedster, Hall has played about just 20% of the snaps over the past four games, but in that span he has 47, 58, 47 and 49 yards receiving. His outlandish 28.7 yards per target will regress, but with his athleticism, he has the potential to turn any target into a touchdown.

As a unit, these receivers have great complementarity and cohesion.

The cornerbacks they’re facing, not so much. The Raiders are No. 30 with a 40.8 Pro Football Focus coverage grade, which is both horrendous and potentially generous.

Without cornerback Gareon Conley, whom they traded last week, the Raiders are thin at the position: No. 1 corner Daryl Worley has below-average PFF coverage grades of 51.5 and 61.0 in his two seasons with the Raiders. Slot man Lamarcus Joyner has allowed a putrid 79.1% catch rate. And new starter Trayvon Mullen is a rookie with just 92 coverage snaps to his name.

As I noted in my Week 9 WR/CB matchups piece, each Lions wide receiver gets a large upgrade in this matchup. Any one of them — or all of them — could go off.

Coaches often don’t act rationally, but it would make sense for the Lions to attack the Raiders heavily through the air. They are without starting running back Kerryon Johnson (knee, injured reserve), so they should skew toward the pass anyway, and the Raiders have a funnel defense that ranks No. 9 against the run (-17.9% DVOA) but No. 29 against the pass (37.5% DVOA, per Football Outsiders).

Stafford has averaged 315.5 yards and 2.5 touchdowns passing over his past four games, and against the Raiders, he could exceed those numbers. — Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Raiders -1.5
  • Projected Total: 51

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Raiders -2.5 or Better 

The Raiders have a certain stigma surrounding them based on preseason expectations. People just refuse to believe that Jon Gruden actually has a pretty good team. It’s not great or a contender, but it’s not bad at all.

And despite an absolutely vicious schedule to start the year, the Raiders will return to their home stadium for the first time since Sept. 15 with a 3-4 record — they really should be 4-3 after last week’s game against Houston.

It starts with the offensive line, which despite dealing with injury issues all season, has performed at a high level throughout 2019. Per PFF, the Raiders have allowed a league-low 44 pressures (tied with Baltimore) and rank in the top three in overall pass blocking efficiency.

The injury to center Rodney Hudson hurts, but this is still a solid front. Plus, they will be facing a Detroit defensive front that just doesn’t excel against the run, ranking in the bottom five of the NFL in adjusted line yards, power rank and stuff rank, per Football Outsiders.

That’s not ideal against an offensive front that generates push in front of up-and-coming premier back Josh Jacobs, who’s breaking tackles on 28% of his carries and leads all running backs (min. 50 carries) in PFF’s Elusive Rating ahead of only Alvin Kamara and Chris Carson.

Jacobs should keep the Raiders ahead of the sticks all game and break a few long ones.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Jacobs

Meanwhile the Lions don’t have much running game to speak of, especially after losing Kerryon Johnson to injury, and will face an Oakland defense that is decent against the rush, allowing only 3.7 yards per rush, which ranks fifth in the league.

And when Derek Carr does need to throw it, as I mentioned before, he should have time to do so in a clean pocket to find his receivers against a depleted Lion secondary.

The Lions traded starting safety Quandre Diggs to Seattle and may be without their other in Tracy Walker, who didn’t practice on Wednesday. That’s less than ideal, especially when your No. 1 corner and star lockdown man Slay is also dealing with a hamstring injury.

In regards to the total, it’s over or nothing in my eyes. Oakland should gash on the ground with Jacobs and through the air against a team that doesn’t get much pressure (26th in adjusted sack rate) with a depleted secondary.

And as my colleague mentioned above, Stafford and his bandmates on the outside should shred through the air against a Raiders team that gets almost no consistent pressure and struggles to defend in the secondary. Both offenses should shine on Sunday.

In a game where both teams should move the ball through the air, the difference will be the Raiders’ advantage in the run game. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Buccaneers at Seahawks Betting Odds

  • Odds: Seahawks -6
  • Over/Under: 52
  • Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Buccaneers hit the road as underdogs to face the Seahawks where they have been vulnerable this season. Betting tickets are currently split on the 6-point spread, but more than 55% are backing the over in this matchup.

So how should you bet this game? Our experts preview this matchup, including the biggest mismatch and a staff pick.

Buccaneers-Seahawks Injury Report

The Bucs’ injury report looks good with the exception of O.J. Howard (hamstring), who is trending toward missing this game with another pair of missed practices to begin the week.

Cam Brate (ribs) was upgraded to a limited practice on Thursday after sitting out Wednesday, suggesting he should be ready to go against the Seahawks this week.

The Seahawks had a lengthy injury report to begin the week, but the majority of those players have been upgraded to full practice on Thursday. The two players who look most likely to be inactive for them are safety Quandre Diggs (hamstring) and defensive lineman Quinton Jefferson (oblique) considering they haven’t logged a practice yet. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Ndamukong Suh/Vita Vea vs. Joey Hunt

Normally the honors here would go to Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett and Co. against Tampa Bay’s 26th-ranked unit in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, but in order for the Seahawks to fully exploit that matchup, Hunt — their backup center — needs to hold up after starter Justin Britt was lost for the season to a knee injury last week.

Britt was by no means having a great season — his Pro Football Focus grade of 60.3 is ranked just 20th-best among centers — but Hunt represents a steep drop-off from Britt with a dismal grade of 45.3 over 65 snaps.

A 299-pound sixth-round pick out of TCU in 2016, Hunt is not only bested in girth by the 347-pound Suh and 300-pound Vea, but also skill. Suh is a five-time Pro Bowler and three-time First Team All-Pro, while Vea enters Week 9 boasting a top-20 PFF grade among interior lineman (79.2).

Seattle overcame Britt’s injury with three second-quarter touchdowns upon Hunt’s insertion last week but stalled to the tune of just three second-half points, ultimately failing to cover the 7.5-point spread in a 27-20 win.

The matchup disadvantage the Seahawks face with Hunt at center coupled with the stoutness of Tampa Bay’s top-ranked run defense in DVOA could pose issues if they employ their normal run-heavy approach with a lead, potentially leaving them vulnerable to another backdoor cover. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Seahawks -7
  • Projected Total: 53

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Buccaneers +6

This is a great spot to buy low on a Bucs team that’s much better than their record indicates. Tampa could easily be 4-3 and the entire narrative surrounding this team would be different. Seattle is sitting at 6-2 with a +12 point differential while Tampa is at 2-5 with a -16.

Conversely, the Seahawks have had a number of games break their way. Five of their wins have come by one possession and four came by a total of eight points.

Realistically, Seattle should also be sitting closer to 4-3. And if this was a battle of two 4-3 teams, I don’t think we’d see -6 here. So, not only is it a bargain buy, but also a sell on Seattle, which I’ve done each of the past three weeks as well.

From a yards-per-play perspective, Tampa has allowed 5.6 while Seattle has given up 6.4 (tied with Arizona for third-worst in the NFL). Only the two winless teams, Miami and Cincy, have allowed more on a per-play basis. Seattle has been stronger on the other side of the ball, averaging 6.1 yards per play (11th), but the Bucs aren’t too far behind at 5.8 (17th).

From a matchup perspective, this is a good one for Tampa. Seattle wants to run it as much as any team in the NFL (one of only five that average more than 30 rush attempts per game along with the 49ers, Ravens, Vikings and Colts).

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Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Seahawks RB Chris Carson celebrates with teammates

The Bucs defense excels at stopping the run, ranking No. 1 overall in yards per rush at 3.0 with the top rush defense DVOA. The Todd Bowles scheme and some key acquisitions have given Tampa a dominant front seven that should stuff Seattle’s run game.

Wilson should get his through the air with some big plays against a very suspect Bucs pass defense, which is the clear weak area of this team.

However, I also think Jameis Winston and Tampa’s dynamic duo on the outside of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can keep up against a Seattle defense that doesn’t generate much pressure (27th in adjusted sack rate) and is decimated with injuries in the secondary.

Winston should be able to exploit Seattle deep on a few occasions with his explosive receivers. And it’s also possible that corner Tre Flowers doesn’t play.

I’m taking the points with an undervalued Bucs team that is more than capable on the road with wins over the Rams and Panthers. Plus, Bruce Arians is no stranger to winning in Seattle, having won four of five meetings outright in Seattle against — each as an underdog and three of the four wins as a dog of more than a touchdown.

Coaches vs. Wilson in Seattle

  • Bruce Arians: 4-1 against the spread (80%) | 4-1 straight up
  • All other coaches: 21-31-3 ATS (40.4%) | 10-45 SU

Moneyline underdogs vs. Wilson in Seattle

  • Arians: 4-1 +$1,056
  • Others: 8-40 -$1,985 (losing by over 10 points per game)


I’d take anything +4 or better here. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Packers at Chargers Betting Odds

  • Odds: Packers -3.5
  • Over/Under: 48.5
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Public bettors are all over the Green Bay Packers, who are attracting 88% of tickets and 93% of money for Sunday’s matchup at the Los Angeles Chargers. But is all the love deserved at this price?

Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, complete with a look at the biggest mismatch and a staff spread pick.

Packers-Chargers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Packers

The Packers have an absurd amount of players on their injury report, but they did the same thing last week and only one ended up sitting: Davante Adams (toe), who has since returned to limited practice. We’ll have a better idea of his status on Friday.

After reportedly almost missing last week’s game with a hamstring injury, Keenan Allen is back to practicing in full, so fantasy owners can take a sigh of relief. DL Brandon Mebane (knee) still hasn’t returned to practice, suggesting he’ll miss another game. His potential absence is good news for Aaron Jones’ outlook. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Chargers OT Sam Tevi vs. Preston or Za’Darius Smith

One of the biggest reasons for the transformation of the Packers defense this season has been the signing of the Smiths, Preston and Za’Darius, who have combined for 15 sacks and rank inside the top 20 among edge rushers in almost every single statistical category that pertains to generating pressure.

Preston Smith
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Preston Smith

They should both make their presence known throughout Sunday, especially considering Philip Rivers generally waits until the last second to snap the ball, which can give a slight edge to rushers getting a better jump off the snap. And Rivers has been under pressure a ton this season. In fact, only Jared Goff has had more dropbacks under pressure than Rivers, who has been hit a league-high 28 times (the next highest is Miami’s combined 20).

Per Football Focus, only three teams rank below 80 in pass rushing productivity: The Chargers, Dolphins and Rams.

No matter how you split it, the Chargers’ offensive line has been dreadful and injuries certainly haven’t helped with continuity. The biggest problem has been at tackle as they’ve had arguably the worst tandem in football in Trent Scott and Tevi up until last week.

However, Pro Bowl tackle Russell Okung returned last week, and the 31-year-old didn’t miss a beat, finishing with a pass-blocking grade of just below 85. His presence will be a tremendous help a potentially new-look Chargers offense under new coordinator Shane Steichen.

Worrying about one weak tackle, especially the one who isn’t on River’s blind side, allows you to do so much more on offensive than if you have to worry about both bookends.

Still, the Chargers have to worry about the right side of that offensive line with Tevi going up against whichever Smith lines up on that side — they’ll play on both — and the pressure Green Bay inevitably floods there as well.

One key turnover or a few sacks to get the Chargers in third-and-long situations could flip this game against a rolling Packers team. Stuckey


Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Packers -2.5
  • Projected Total: 47.5

PRO System Match

The Chargers offense is struggling — Rivers and Co. have been held to 20 or fewer points in four consecutive games.

As a result, LA is a small home underdog to Green Bay, and there’s lopsided action on the Packers to cover. While this may seem like a good time to fade the Chargers inconsistent offense, history suggests otherwise.

Teams that haven’t been able to put up a lot of points recently can be undervalued, especially against opponents that may not know their tendencies or personnel as well as their divisional rivals.

This creates an excellent first-half betting opportunity. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 160-113-69 (59%) against the spread since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,326 following this strategy. John Ewing


PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.


Expert Picks

Stuckey: Chargers +3.5

This is a good time to buy an undervalued team Chargers team while selling the Packers, who I’ve been high on since the beginning of the season but are now getting a little too much love in the market.

Green Bay was my only preseason Super Bowl future, but I have to call it like I see it: This team has been very fortunate all season, from a pretty lucky win over the Vikings to getting a significantly undermanned-Chiefs team last week.

The Chargers offense hasn’t been pretty, but as I mentioned above, getting Okung back will do wonders. Plus, Melvin Gordon finally has a few games under his belt after missing so much time, so you should start to see more production out of the Wisconsin product as he gets up to game speed. And there are still some major holes in the Packers run defense, which is allowing 4.8 yards per carry (28th in the NFL).

The Chargers also hired a new offensive coordinator, which can only help. It’ll also serve as an element of surprise working in their favor as the Packers will have no idea what changes and new wrinkles are coming.

The Chargers defense has also been decimated by injuries, but you’re starting to see some improvement from a lot of the replacements after getting some valuable experience. This is still a unit with a formidable pass rush and two rock-solid corners in Desmond King in the slot and Casey Hayward on the outside.

Also, for whatever reason, the Chargers have consistently started slow in recent seasons and then turned it around about this time. Not surprisingly, Rivers is 8-2 ATS over the past three Novembers.

I also think the Chargers are a solid teaser piece, taking them from +3 or +3.5 up to +9 or +9.5. Despite their 3-5 record, they’ve been in every game. Throwing out a blowout win over the winless Dolphins, their other seven games have been decided by one score.

Rivers has been profitable as an underdog throughout his career at 42-31-4 ATS (57.5%) for an excellent 12.8% ROI. And if you teased the Chargers in all of those games, he would’ve covered the tease 82% of the time.

Like most Chargers games, I expect this to come down to the final possession, so I love the tease option — I personally teased them with the Jags — and grabbing over a field goal with the home dog. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]


Browns at Broncos Betting Odds

  • Odds: Browns -3.5
  • Over/Under: 39
  • Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

With Joe Flacco injured, the Broncos are turning to quarterback Brandon Allen, making his first NFL start, against the Browns on Sunday.

Our experts break down this matchup, complete with analysis of the biggest mismatch and a staff pick.

Browns-Broncos Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Browns

Jarvis Landry (shoulder) and Odell Beckham (groin) have both been limited in practice this week, but there’s nothing to indicate that they’ll be ruled out on Sunday.

The Broncos ruled out Flacco (neck) early in the week, putting Allen in control of the offense. Tight end Noah Fant could also have some increased snaps with Jeff Heuerman (knee) expected to be out for this game. OL Ja’Waun James re-injured his knee last week and hasn’t been practicing yet, suggesting he could be set to miss this game. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Baker Mayfield vs. Broncos Pass Defense

Despite losing linebacker Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL, the Broncos defense has become one of the NFL’s toughest and is currently the third-most efficient in the NFL.

Denver is led by its fifth-most efficient pass defense, which has yet to allow an opposing quarterback to produce at QB1 performance this season. That is bad news for Mayfield, who only has one QB1 performance to his credit this season.

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chris Harris

All-Pro cornerback Chris Harris Jr. has been a nightmare for opposing wide receivers. Harris has limited such top wideouts Keenan Allen (18 receiving yards), Tyreek Hill (74 receiving yards) and Allen Robinson (41 receiving yards) this season.

Mayfield will hope to find a way to jumpstart Beckham, who hasn’t eclipsed 56 receiving yards in four of his past five games. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Browns -2
  • Projected Total: 40.5

PRO System Match

The Broncos offense is struggling, to be kind. In the last three weeks Denver has scored 16, six and 13 points.

As a result, oddsmakers have opened Denver as 3-point home underdogs. More than 70% of spread tickets are on the Browns to cover as of writing (see live public betting data here). While this may seem like a good time to fade the Broncos inconsistent offense, history suggests otherwise.

Teams that haven’t been able to put up a lot of points recently can be undervalued, especially against opponents that may not know their tendencies or personnel as well as their divisional rivals.

This creates an excellent first-half betting opportunity. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 160-113-69 (59%) against the spread since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,326 following this strategy. John Ewing

Expert Picks

Mike Randle:  Under 39

This features:

  • A quarterback making his first NFL start
  • Another quarterback leading the league in interceptions
  • An underdog home team with the third-most efficient defense in the league

All of this adds up to betting the under. The Broncos have not allowed a top-12 quarterback finish from the opposition.

Meanwhile, the Browns rank 10th in sacks and face a Denver offensive line that has allowed the sixth-most sacks this season. First-time starting quarterback Allen with likely be under duress for most of the game.

The only concern with losing this bet is defensive touchdowns, which I will gladly risk.  The under is 3-1 on Denver home games this season. I would bet this line down to 37. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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