Koerner’s Week 9 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Rankings: Best ATS Bets & Straight-Up Picks

Koerner’s Week 9 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Rankings: Best ATS Bets & Straight-Up Picks article feature image

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Broncos mascot

  • Using his proprietary model and projections, Sean Koerner has labeled his best against-the-spread picks and straight-up bets.
  • You'll find his 1-32 rankings below, as well as a spreadsheet to return personalized rankings based on the odds you input.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 9 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.

Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

NFL Week 9 Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 9 then wrap it up with ATS.

Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings

Straight-Up Confidence Ratings

1. Bills

Matchup: vs. WAS
Confidence Rating: 80.8%

2. 49ers

Matchup: @ ARI
Confidence Rating: 79.6%

3. Seahawks

Matchup: vs. TB
Confidence Rating: 72.9%

4. Cowboys

Matchup: @ NYG
Confidence Rating: 71.4%

5. Jets

Matchup: @ MIA
Confidence Rating: 66.8%

T-6. Vikings

Matchup: @ KC
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-6. Patriots

Matchup: @ BAL
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-6. Eagles

Matchup: vs. CHI
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

9. Panthers

Matchup: vs. TEN
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

10. Packers

Matchup: @ LAC
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

T-11. Texans

Matchup: @ JAX
Confidence Rating: 56.9%

T-11. Browns

Matchup: @ DEN
Confidence Rating: 56.9%

13. Raiders

Matchup: vs. DET
Confidence Rating: 55.2%

14. Colts

Matchup: @ PIT
Confidence Rating: 51.7%

15. Steelers

Matchup: vs. IND
Confidence Rating: 48.3%

16. Lions

Matchup: @ OAK
Confidence Rating: 44.8%

T-17. Jaguars

Matchup: vs. HOU
Confidence Rating: 43.1%

T-17. Broncos

Matchup: vs. CLE
Confidence Rating: 43.1%

19. Chargers

Matchup: vs. GB
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

20. Titans

Matchup: @ CAR
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

T-21. Bears

Matchup: @ PHI
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

T-21. Chiefs

Matchup: vs. MIN
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

T-21. Ravens

Matchup: vs. NE
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

24. Dolphins

Matchup: vs. NYJ
Confidence Rating: 33.2%

25. Giants

Matchup: vs. DAL
Confidence Rating: 28.6%

26. Buccaneers

Matchup: @ SEA
Confidence Rating: 27.1%

27. Cardinals

Matchup: vs. SF
Confidence Rating: 20.4%

28. Redskins

Matchup: @ BUF
Confidence Rating: 19.2%

Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings

Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

1. Broncos

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. CLE

T-2. Seahawks

Spread: -6
Opponent: vs. TB

T-2. Chargers

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. GB

T-2. Titans

Spread: +4
Opponent: @ CAR

T-2. Bears

Spread: +5
Opponent: @ PHI

T-2. Giants

Spread: +7.5
Opponent: vs. DAL

T-7. Jets

Spread: -3
Opponent: @ MIA

T-7. Vikings

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ KC

T-7. Patriots

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ BAL

T-7. Texans

Spread: -1.5
Opponent: @ JAX

T-7. Lions

Spread: +2
Opponent: @ OAK

T-7. Cardinals

Spread: +10
Opponent: vs. SF

T-7. Colts

Spread: +1
Opponent: @ PIT

T-13. Bills

Spread: -10
Opponent: vs. WAS

T-13. Redskins

Spread: +10
Opponent: @ BUF

T-13. Steelers

Spread: -1
Opponent: vs. IND

T-17. 49ers

Spread: -10
Opponent: @ ARI

T-17. Raiders

Spread: -2
Opponent: vs. DET

T-17. Jaguars

Spread: +1.5
Opponent: vs. HOU

T-17. Chiefs

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. MIN

T-17. Ravens

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. NE

T-17. Dolphins

Spread: +3
Opponent: vs. NYJ

T-23. Cowboys

Spread: -7.5
Opponent: @ NYG

T-23. Eagles

Spread: -5
Opponent: vs. CHI

T-23. Panthers

Spread: -4
Opponent: vs. TEN

T-23. Packers

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ LAC

T-23. Buccaneers

Spread: +6
Opponent: @ SEA

28. Browns

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ DEN

Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like:

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