NFL Betting Picks & Predictions: The 4 Best Spreads For Sunday
Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Wilson
NFL Picks & Predictions
Ready for Week 10 of the NFL season? Our staff is here to help you finalize your betting cards with their favorite picks for Sunday's slate.
Find out which spreads and totals they're betting below, including cases for both sides of the 49ers-Saints spread.
Raheem Palmer: Broncos +3.5 at Raiders
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET | More Game Info
The Raiders are 30th in defensive efficiency and have just nine sacks this season, 31st in the league. Well, guess what Drew Lock’s Achilles heel is? Yes, it is pressure — he has just a 32 passer rating under pressure this season, but now he faces a Raiders team that struggles to rush the quarterback.
More good news for the Broncos is the big boost they'll get to the offensive line as guard Graham Glasgow was activated off the COVID-19 reserve list.
If this matchup couldn’t get any more favorable for the Broncos, the Raiders will be without the services of defensive tackle Maurice Hurst, which solidifies that Lock will have time to throw in this matchup. And given the chemistry he’s developed with Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant, it’s likely we'll see the scoring outburst from the second halves of their games against the Chargers and Falcons through the full game this Sunday.
On the other side of the ball, the Raiders' banged up offensive line could suffer another blow as left tackle Kolton Miller is doubtful with an ankle injury and right guard Gabe Jackson is questionable with an illness. This doesn't bode well for a unit that lacks depth after the losses of right tackle Trent Brown and left guard Richie Incognito.
The Broncos also get cornerbacks A.J Bouye and Bryce Callahan back for this matchup. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan threw for 284 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s matchup against the Broncos, and having their starting corners should make a huge difference this week against the Raiders.
I faded the Raiders last week and they were very lucky to get the win — it's possible we could see a much different line for this game had Chargers wide receivers Mike Williams or Donald Parham Jr. caught the ball on either of the final two plays against the Raiders. Either way, the market isn’t valuing them properly, so I’m fading them again.
Underdogs continue to be a solid bet this season as they're 77-57 (57.4%) against the spread. Digging deeper, road underdogs of six or fewer points are 35-15 (70%) ATS this season, according to our Bet Labs database:
With the declining impact of home-field advantage, it's clear many of these home favorites are being mispriced, and the Raiders are a prime example of that. I grabbed the Broncos at +5 earlier in the week (get alerts as I make picks in the Action app), but I still like them down to +3. I would also recommend sprinkling a small percentage of your wager on the moneyline as well.
[Bet now at PointsBet and get $125 if the Broncos gain a yard]
Matthew Freedman: Seahawks +2.5 at Rams
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET | More Game Info
Oh, yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.
For his career, quarterback Russell Wilson is 73-56-7 ATS (10.2% Return on Investment) in the regular season. He tends to be a profitable player to back in a vacuum. And in particular spots he's significantly better.
The Seahawks are coming off a 44-34 loss to the Bills, and Wilson is 24-12-4 ATS (27.8%) off a loss. And as an underdog, Wilson is 23-9-2 ATS (38.4% ROI). Almost all the value he has offered investors throughout his career has come when getting points.
Wilson is in a good spot.
And aside from anything to do with the Seahawks, I generally want to invest in road dogs off a loss, which I think the sports-betting public tends to undervalue.
Not all teams are either road dogs off a loss or home favorites off a win, but it’s instructive to compare these two cohorts.
- Road Dogs Off a Loss: 764-674-39 ATS | 3.4% ROI
- Home Favorites Off a Win: 721-738-41 ATS | -3% ROI
A 3.4% ROI might not seem like much but over a sample this large, it’s significant. Within Bet Labs, road dogs off a loss have earned an A- grade.
This looks like an angle we can exploit, especially this season, when home-field advantage has been minimized due to COVID-19 restrictions on attendance.
And if you look at the numbers, it turns out that this season has been the most profitable one for this trend. In 2020, road dogs off a loss are 26-15 ATS (22.7% ROI).
And last season was the third-most profitable one for this trend: 45-28-5 ATS (18.1% ROI).
Could there be a reason (other than COVID-19) for road dogs off a loss to be especially undervalued over the past two or so years? Yes. I say this as a non-sharp bettor, but going against road dogs off a loss is a very square thing to do. Since 2019, many inexperienced bettors have entered the market as more states have legalized sports speculation.
Perhaps, road dogs coming off a loss have recently been undervalued because the market has become less sophisticated with the influx of new money. Regardless, you don't need to twist my arm to get me to bet on Wilson in this spot.
I think the Seahawks should be favored — I would bet them all the way to -2.5.
[Bet now at BetMGM and win $100 if a touchdown is scored]
Sean Koerner: 49ers +10 at Saints
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET | More Game Info
The market seems to be over-adjusting to both the Saints' 38-3 shellacking of the Bucs on Sunday Night Football and the 49ers' 34-17 loss to the Packers on Thursday Night Football.
George Kittle's season-ending injury was a huge loss, not just because of how valuable he is as a receiver, but also as a blocker. However, the 49ers will be getting Trent Williams, Kendrick Bourne and Brandon Aiyuk back this week, which will give their offense a significant boost.
Jordan Reed could help fill the receiving role he left behind. Last week, Reed only played 23% of snaps as San Francisco eased him back from injury. He should handle an increased workload this week, which will give Nick Mullens another weapon in the passing game.
Drew Brees' arm strength continues to be an issue, and his league-low 5.8 average intended air yards make his margin of error razor-thin. This has made it tough for the Saints to put away inferior teams (like the 49ers) as they beat the Chargers, Panthers and Bears by just three points each in their previous three games before the Sunday night blowout. I see New Orleans regressing to that trend this week and beating San Francisco, but not by double digits.
I would bet this down to +9.
[Bet now at PointsBet and get $125 if the 49ers gain a yard]
Chris Raybon: 49ers +10 at Saints
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET | More Game Info
This line is unsurprisingly large after both of these teams had opposite results in prime time last week, with San Francisco getting destroyed at home by Green Bay, 34-17, on Thursday Night Football then with New Orleans routing Tampa Bay, 38-3, on Sunday Night Football.
It’s time to take advantage of the opposing public perceptions, though, as the 49ers are on a long week and will be much better prepared with left tackle Trent Williams as well as wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne coming off the Reserve/COVID-19 list.
On the telecast last week, FOX commentator Troy Aikman noted that Kyle Shanahan had to rip up his entire gameplan on a short week after learning of the players who would miss due to COVID-19 precautions.
Quarterback Nick Mullens is also one of the league's better backups — if not the best — averaging 8.4 yards per attempt for his career.
And on defense, San Francisco still ranks 12th in DVOA despite its injuries, and is especially strong at stoping the run (sixth in DVOA), which puts the onus on Drew Brees to complete longer passes than his average depth of target of 5.8 yards.
If you saw Dan Orlovsky's rant, you know Tampa Bay had a terrible game plan last week against New Orleans, but that shouldn’t happen with Shanahan, who can be counted on to prepare his team well — even when they travel.
According to our Bet Labs data, Shanahan-coached teams have coveted 61.9% as a road dog in his career, including an outright win as a dog in New Orleans last season.
[Bet now at PointsBet and get $125 if the 49ers gain a yard]
Brandon Anderson: Saints -9.5 vs. 49ers
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET | More Game Info
The last we saw the 49ers, we wished we hadn't.
San Francisco vs. Green Bay was supposed to be a marquee Thursday Night Football matchup before the season. After all, it was a rematch of the 2019 NFC Championship Game (how is that possible?!). But the Packers blew the 49ers out of the water, coasting to a 34-3 lead before two late garbage time touchdowns.
The 49ers had a little extra time off since then, but they’re not exactly healthy. This game against the Saints would likewise have been seen as one of the games of the week before the season — maybe even a month ago — but the Super Bowl loser hangover has hit the 49ers hard. They’re littered with injuries up and down the roster on both sides of the ball.
On offense, they’re missing Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Jimmy Garoppolo and a whole crew of running backs. The defense is missing pass rushers Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, multiple linebackers and most of the secondary. It’s a mess, really.
Pro Football Doc's Injury Index rates the Saints an A- while the 49ers are a C, one of the biggest injury mismatches of the season. San Francisco's passing defense is an awful D+ rating. That’s going to be a problem against the hottest team in the NFL — the Saints can’t possibly play as well as they did last week when they nearly blanked the Bucs, but New Orleans looks as good as any team in football and finally has their pass attack in good shape.
Drew Brees should pass all over these 49ers.
This line is rising quickly, but the Saints should win by a couple touchdowns. I’ll grab them here at -9.5 and am willing to go another point or two if it rises, and they make for a nice teaser addition, too.
[Bet now at BetMGM and win $100 if a touchdown is scored]
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