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NFL Week 10 Fantasy QB Breakdown: Can You Trust Ryan Fitzpatrick?

Nov 08, 2018 12:37 AM EST
  • Which Quarterbacks should you target in DFS for Week 10 of the NFL Season?
  • Matthew Freedman breaks down the best options including a deep dive on Tampa Bay QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

See the full version of this piece at FantasyLabs

We’re in the second half of the 2018 NFL season, and we’re still on pace for a record-breaking campaign with an average of 24.0 points per game per team. The action continues with an 11-game main slate that kicks off on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.

In this positional breakdown, I’m looking at the quarterbacks at the top of the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

If you want more information on the rest of this week’s quarterbacks, subscribe to FantasyLabs, where you can access the large suite of analytical DFS tools I use to research every player.

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news feed.

For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.


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Model Quarterbacks

This week, there are four quarterbacks at the top of our individual Pro Models.

The two who most catch my eye are Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Aaron Rodgers: Green Bay Packers (-10) vs. Miami Dolphins, 47.5 Over/Under

  • $6,400 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel

UPDATE (11/10): Wide receiver Randall Cobb (hamstring) is questionable to play after suffering a setback in Thursday’s practice. He should be considered a game-time decision.

Even though he has a banged-up receiving unit and was playing through a knee injury he suffered in the season-opener, Rodgers entered the Week 7 bye playing as well as any quarterback in the league, passing for 867 yards and five touchdowns and rushing for 44 yards in Weeks 5-6.

No quarterback scored more fantasy points than Rodgers in that two-game span. His average of 32.5 DraftKings points per game over that time was accompanied by a robust +14.12 Plus/Minus. Rodgers entered the bye looking every bit like the league’s best quarterback.

Since then, however, he’s been handcuffed (as he has for his entire career) by the unimaginative scheme and predictable play-calling of head coach Mike McCarthy. In each of his past two games, Rodgers has passed for fewer than 300 yards and three touchdowns and failed to hit 20 DraftKings points.

He hasn’t been awful — because he’s still one of the best pure players of his generation — but he’s nonetheless been a disappointment given his salary-based expectations.

This week, though, he’s enticing. He’s objectively been the best fantasy quarterback of the past decade — he has seven top-two fantasy finishes since 2008 — he’s still near the peak of his productive powers, and yet he’s cheaper than Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes by $800 on DraftKings and $1,200 on FanDuel. Mahomes is playing at an MVP level, but anytime Rodgers is available as a discounted home favorite, exposure in guaranteed prize pools is warranted.

As a starter, Rodgers has easily been his best at home, as a favorite and outside of division. This weekend, he’s on the positive side of all those splits: #Triangulation.

  • Non-divisional home favorite (42 games): 29.6 fantasy points, 300.7 yards and 2.55 touchdowns passing
  • All other situations (108 games): 25.0 fantasy points, 259.8 yards and 2.04 touchdowns passing

With Rodgers, the Packers have a 25-17 over/under record as non-divisional home favorites, giving over bettors a 16.1% return on investment (per Bet Labs).

Unsurprisingly, when Rodgers is in an advantageous situation against a team that hasn’t faced him two times per year for the past decade, the Packers put up points.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. Washington Redskins, 51.5 O/U

  • $5,900 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel

UPDATE (11/10): Right tackle Demar Dotson (knee, shoulder) and running back Peyton Barber (ankle) will play after practicing in full on Friday. Running back Ronald Jones (hamstring) has been ruled out.

The spread opened as a pick’em, but it has moved significantly toward the Bucs. FitzMagic mania is in full effect. On the Wednesday edition of The Action Network NFL Podcast, guest Scott Barrett highlighted Fitz as his potential cash-game quarterback for the week, and it’s to see why Scott is bullish on Fitz.

Fitz has probably the league’s best collection of pass-catching talent in wide receivers Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries and tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate, and with these playmakers he’s been aggressive in pushing the ball downfield.

He leads the league with marks of 9.7 yards per attempt and 11.3-yard average depth of target. In his four complete games this season he’s averaged an NFL-best 31.9 FanDuel points per game.

There’s always a question as to whether Fitz will be magical enough to avoid a mid-game benching, but in his 11 Bucs games with a snap rate of at least 25%, Fitz has still managed 20.7 FanDuel points per game.

Fitz has a good overall matchup against the Redskins. Although they rank eighth with a PFF coverage grade of 77.7, the Redskins are one of the most injured teams in the league, especially on offense.

  • Wide receiver Jamison Crowder: Ankle, questionable – out since Week 5
  • Wide receiver Paul Richardson: Shoulder, IR
  • Running back Chris Thompson: Ribs, questionable – missed Weeks 6-7 & 9
  • Left tackle Trent Williams: Thumb, doubtful – missed Week 9
  • Left guard Shawn Lauvao: knee, IR
  • Right guard Brandon Scherff: pectoral, IR

Without their two best wide receivers, best pass-catching back and three starting offensive linemen, the Redskins could struggle to sustain drives, which in turn could put more pressure on their defense and make it more vulnerable.

Read the full version on FantasyLabs here.

Positional Breakdowns & News

Be sure to read the other Week 10 positional breakdowns.

• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Credit:

Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (14) with head coach Dirk Koetter.

Follow Matthew Freedman on Twitter
@MattFtheOracle

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# BETS
-3
45
-2.5
43.5
41
-9.5
40.5
-7
59
-14.5
60
-13
-9.5
47
-9.5
46.5
43.5
-11
43
-10.5
46.5
-7
46
-6
54
-3
54.5
-3
48
-3
47.5
-3
47
-3
47.5
-3
-3
38
-3
37
44
-13
45
-12
51
-10
51
-7.5
-3.5
47.5
-3
47
48.5
-4.5
48
-3
43
-5.5
43
-5.5