NFL Futures Picks, Predictions: Where the MVP Race Stands After Week 11

NFL Futures Picks, Predictions: Where the MVP Race Stands After Week 11 article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen (left) and Lamar Jackson.

Every Sunday night on "The Action Network Podcast," Brandon Anderson and Evan Abrams recap the biggest highlights of each week's NFL slate.

There was plenty to talk about this week with huge AFC matchups taking place in all three slates. First, the Steelers increased their lead in the AFC North to 1.5 games over the Ravens with a home win over Baltimore. Then, the Bills ended the Chiefs' undefeated season with a home win that was capped by an incredible Josh Allen touchdown run. At night, the Chargers established themselves as contenders with a home win over the Bengals, whose hopes for this season might have been extinguished in defeat.

We have a very compelling MVP race with Allen and Lamar Jackson leading the way. Here's what Brandon Anderson offered up on the podcast about those two AFC stars.

NFL Week 12 Pass or Play: Every Game Covered Image

NFL Futures: 2024 MVP Preview for Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson

By Brandon Anderson

Fourth-and-2 against the NFL’s last remaining undefeated team, and Josh Allen does what only Josh Allen does.

This was Allen’s Heisman moment.

I’ve watched the replay a couple of times, and I counted eight Chiefs defenders that he ran past, over or through. Allen’s 26-yard touchdown put an exclamation point on the Bills’ impressive home win over Kansas City.

I benefitted greatly from Allen’s huge game, hitting on the over on rush attempts – and a few alt lines – and his rushing yards total.

The Chiefs only had 259 yards of offense, part of which was actually due to Allen and the Bills offense. Buffalo won the time of possession battle by more than 8 minutes and went 9-of-15 on third down. The Bills only averaged 0.2 more yards per play than the Chiefs, so efficiency was close to even.

This came down to Allen making plays when he needed to, and no play was bigger than the game-clinching touchdown run.

Allen’s passing line won’t jump out at you, going 27-of-40 for 262 yards, a touchdown and an interceptions. Heck, he finished with 55 rushing yards, so he wasn’t exactly lighting it up on the ground before his incredible touchdown run either.

The Bills did this banged up on both sides of the ball. Matt Milano was missing in the heart of the defense, and WR Keon Coleman and TE Dalton Kincaid were missing offensively for Allen.

If the season ended right now, I’m confident Allen would be the MVP. He has the big moment, and his team is now just one-half game behind the Chiefs for the best record in the AFC.

As of Monday morning, Allen is the betting favorite +150 to win MVP at DraftKings. Lamar Jackson is +200 and Jared Goff is +600.

I’m not quite sure where I sit on the award right now because it seems like Allen and Jackson, probably his main competition for the award, have a lot of big games left and a lot of moments to be created.

Also, it’s important to note that while Allen was wowing the NFL audience in the biggest game of the week, Jackson struggled. He went 16-of-33 for 207 yards with 46 more coming on the ground in a loss to the Steelers.

If the playoffs ended today, the Ravens would be the No. 6 seed in the AFC. That’s not generally where the MVP’s team finishes.

I’m not sure where I sit with the MVP right now, but this is shaping up to be a fantastic race.

About the Author
Brandon Anderson is a staff writer at the Action Network, specializing in NFL and NBA coverage. He provides weekly NFL power rankings and picks for every game, as well as contributing to NBA analysis, regularly appearing on the BUCKETS Podcast. With a deep background in sports betting and fantasy football, Brandon is known for spotting long-shot futures and writing for various outlets like Sports Illustrated, BetMGM, and more before joining the Action Network.

Follow Brandon Anderson @wheatonbrando on Twitter/X.

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