NFL Luck Rankings Week 12: Broncos Enter Top 3; Bills-Eagles Showdown
Via Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Hurts (left), Russell Wilson (center) & Josh Allen (right).
Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 12.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — are 7-8-2 against the spread (ATS) this year. Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one threshold are 103-62-6 (62.0%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 12.
NFL Week 12 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31.21% | |
| 2 | 24.84% | |
| 3 | 17.63% | |
| 4 | 14.4% | |
| 5 | 13.86% | |
| 6 | 12.2% | |
| 7 | 9.53% | |
| 8 | 5.85% | |
| 9 | 4.94% | |
| 10 | 2.61% | |
| 11 | 2.55% | |
| 12 | 2.06% | |
| 13 | 1.84% | |
| 14 | 1.83% | |
| 15 | 1.62% | |
| 16 | 0.59% | |
| 17 | -1.37% | |
| 18 | -3.91% | |
| 19 | -4.12% | |
| 20 | -5.08% | |
| 21 | -5.18% | |
| 22 | -5.94% | |
| 23 | -6.56% | |
| 24 | -8.28% | |
| 25 | -11.26% | |
| 26 | -11.62% | |
| 27 | -11.7% | |
| 28 | -13.16% | |
| 29 | -14.01% | |
| 30 | -14.7% | |
| 31 | -15.15% | |
| 32 | -17.24% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Somehow, even when the Steelers lose and fail to cover, they're still lucky.
Pittsburgh should have lost 19-5 by our Expected Score metric, making them the third-luckiest team of Week 11. Even at 6-4, the Steelers recognize the luck they've gotten in achieving this record by firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada after Sunday's loss to Cleveland, knowing their defense has been the unit keeping them in games.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
By Expected Score, the Eagles were only the ninth-luckiest team in Week 11, mostly thanks to Kansas City's ineptitude on offense. The Chiefs offense had just a 35% success rate, which won't lead to a lot of points. Thus, we had the Eagles winning by 1.7 points.
However, Marquez Valdes-Scantling's drop with 1:50 remaining on a perfectly thrown deep ball from Patrick Mahomes was the single unluckiest play of the week by potential win probability added.
Our Expected Score, however, considers the Chiefs' drop rates and says the Eagles weren't quite as lucky as that, knowing this is a "skill" (or lack thereof) that the Chiefs have. Still, the Eagles were fortunate to win by as much as they did.
3. Denver Broncos
Denver beat Minnesota 21-20 in a close game that, amazingly, was even closer than it seemed. This was the second-closest game ever by Expected Score, with the Broncos getting the nod by an expected scoreline of 22.35-22.33.
That, combined with the Bengals' slightly unlucky scoreline was enough to elevate the Broncos into the top three.
The Unluckiest
30. New England Patriots
The Patriots exit Week 11 uncertain of their quarterback situation with Mac Jones out as the starter, although the new starting QB won't be named until Sunday. New England's Week 11 bye, combined with the Packers' win puts it back in the bottom three.
31. Buffalo Bills
After an unlucky game against Denver, the Bills rebounded by smashing the New York Jets 32-6. However, because the win was so convincing, it barely moved the luck needle. Buffalo was expected to win that game close to 100% of the time with how far apart the Bills and Jets were.
Now, the Bills head into a Week 12 game against Philadelphia, with a Luck Differential of 29 and a Luck Gap of 40% in a game setting off major luck signals on the Bills.
32. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta's bye keeps them in last place in the Luck Rankings, heading into a Week 12 divisional matchup against another unlucky team in the Saints, who rank 27th in the Luck Rankings.
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
