NFL Luck Rankings Week 13: Bills Fall to Last, Joined by Saints in Bottom 3
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Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 13.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — are 7-9-2 against the spread (ATS) this year. Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one threshold are 103-63-6 (62.0%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 13.
NFL Week 13 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29.95% | |
| 2 | 28.34% | |
| 3 | 17.33% | |
| 4 | 14.43% | |
| 5 | 11.32% | |
| 6 | 10.43% | |
| 7 | 9.49% | |
| 8 | 7.27% | |
| 9 | 5.88% | |
| 10 | 3.18% | |
| 11 | 1.44% | |
| 12 | 1.07% | |
| 13 | 0.99% | |
| 14 | -0.15% | |
| 15 | -0.48% | |
| 16 | -2.12% | |
| 17 | -2.19% | |
| 18 | -2.36% | |
| 19 | -2.9% | |
| 20 | -3.3% | |
| 21 | -3.51% | |
| 22 | -5.04% | |
| 23 | -5.82% | |
| 24 | -6.78% | |
| 25 | -7.07% | |
| 26 | -9.85% | |
| 27 | -10.75% | |
| 28 | -12.8% | |
| 29 | -13.96% | |
| 30 | -16.4% | |
| 31 | -17.54% | |
| 32 | -19.07% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh's Luck Percentage continues to decline, going from 35.3% two weeks ago to just 29.9%. That's in no small part because the Steelers' 16-10 win in Week 12 over Cincinnati should have been by a larger margin, according to our Expected Score metric. Instead, the Steelers were expected to win 24-14 over their AFC North rivals.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia's luck streak continues after an overtime, comeback win against the Buffalo Bills.
Crucially, James Cook dropped an open touchdown pass for Buffalo, which then proceeded to commit two straight false start penalties to take itself out of scoring position in the early going. That combined with two missed field goals by Bills kicker Tyler Bass was enough for the Eagles to come away as the luckier of the two teams in a game Buffalo was expected to win 30-27.
This puts the Eagles just 1.6% behind Pittsburgh for the top spot in the Luck Rankings. That's the closest anyone has been to Pittsburgh since Week 5.
3. Denver Broncos
Denver's 29-12 win over Cleveland was just a touch lucky, with Expected Score pinning this one at 28-14 in the Broncos' favor. That was enough to keep Denver in the top three, but it has four teams all within striking distance of them should it get unlucky against the Texans in Week 13.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans joins the bottom three for the first time since Week 8 after suffering the worst beat of Week 12. The Saints' division-rival Falcons were dead last in the Luck Rankings last week, but the lucky win pushed them up six spots to 26th.
31. New England Patriots
In a battle of absolutely terrible teams, the Patriots fall to 2-9 after losing to the Giants 10-7.
Week 13 is a long way from Week 1, but this is the same Patriots team that fell 25-20 to Philadelphia back then and actually outperformed the Eagles in that game. The Patriots are now nearly two full wins below expectation.
32. Buffalo Bills
After blowing a double-digit lead to the Eagles, the Bills fall to dead last in the Luck Rankings.
Buffalo has played more like an 8-4 team, but it has suffered some tough beats recently in close games, losing by one score in three of its last four outings, with two of those expected to be wins.
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