NFL Luck Rankings Week 14: Steelers Fall From Top Spot; Colts Join Top 3
Getty Images/Action Network. Pictured: Jalen Hurts (left) and Mike Tomlin.
Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 14.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — are 7-9-2 against the spread (ATS) this year.
However, a new trend we've been tracking is the unlucky team in games with a Luck Gap of at least 30% in Week 13 or later produced two winners ATS. That moves that trend to 27-7-2 ATS over the last six years, including 15-1-1 if that team is also on the road.
Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 111-65-6 (62.6%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 14.
NFL Week 14 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25.73% | |
| 2 | 23.57% | |
| 3 | 16.26% | |
| 4 | 13.81% | |
| 5 | 12.49% | |
| 6 | 12.33% | |
| 7 | 10.43% | |
| 8 | 8.98% | |
| 9 | 4.88% | |
| 10 | 3.3% | |
| 11 | 3.21% | |
| 12 | 2.61% | |
| 13 | 2.5% | |
| 14 | -0.15% | |
| 15 | -1.03% | |
| 16 | -1.23% | |
| 17 | -1.88% | |
| 18 | -2.12% | |
| 19 | -2.45% | |
| 20 | -2.48% | |
| 21 | -2.89% | |
| 22 | -3.76% | |
| 23 | -5.04% | |
| 24 | -6.37% | |
| 25 | -6.78% | |
| 26 | -7.05% | |
| 27 | -10.75% | |
| 28 | -11% | |
| 29 | -17.39% | |
| 30 | -18.53% | |
| 31 | -18.87% | |
| 32 | -19.07% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Philadelphia Eagles
A new No. 1 has emerged, as the Eagles pass the Steelers for the luckiest team in the NFL despite the 42-19 loss to the 49ers on Sunday. That moves Pittsburgh out of the top spot for the first time since Week 3.
The scoreline in the Eagles loss to San Francisco was a touch unflattering for Philadelphia, as the Expected Score was 31-16. However, even that only put Philly as the ninth-most unlucky team of the week, which wasn't as unlucky as the team they passed for the top spot.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
Amazingly, the team riding the luck wave all year was the unluckiest team of Week 13. Pittsburgh's 24-10 loss to Arizona was actually an 18-16 Expected Score win for the Steelers.
Since Week 11, when Pittsburgh was 6-3, they're just 1-2 and have fallen from a Luck% of 35.3% to 23.6%.
3. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have hovered inside the top 10, and even the top five of the Luck Rankings for much of the year, but this is the first time they've entered the top three.
The 7-5 Colts have played more like a 5-7 team by Expected Score, putting them nearly two full wins above expectation.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. Carolina Panthers
The hard-luck Panthers drop to 1-11 after racking up the second-unluckiest result of Week 13.
Carolina had nearly a 45% offensive success rate compared to Tampa Bay's 30% offensive success rate but came out a 21-18 loser on the scoreboard. That's unlucky when the Expected Score was 22-14 in the Panthers' favor.
31. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans drops one more spot from 30th to 31st after losing 33-28 to the Lions in an incredibly close game. The Expected Score was 25.9-25.7 in favor of the Saints, who out-gained Detroit in addition to putting up more first downs and controlling the clock.
32. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo's bye week leaves them at the bottom of the table heading into a marquee Week 14 game against Kansas City.
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