Week 15 NFL Odds: Your Guide To Betting Every Sunday Afternoon Game
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Herbert
This weekend’s football marathon continues with a full slate of NFL games on Sunday afternoon. Find Week 15 NFL odds in our guide to betting every matchup below, complete with a pick for each.
Week 15 NFL Odds
Falcons vs. Saints Odds
Sam Farley: The main narrative of this game is Ridder, the 74th overall pick of last year’s draft, making his debut for the Falcons. The former Cincinnati Bearcat has an interesting athletic profile — he’s big and quick — and showed decent ability with his legs in college, exceeding 580 rushing yards in three of his four seasons.
The only year he didn’t reach that mark was his senior season, which saw him refine himself as a passer. But it’s clear he has the ability to use his feet, and I would expect him to showcase that area of his game in his NFL debut.
He rushed only eight times in three preseason games, but he had six carries for 59 yards in the first one, averaging 9.8 yards per carry. With Ridder’s rushing yard line sitting at 20.5, we’ll be taking a shot on the over.
Pick: Desmond Ridder Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-135) | Bet to 22.5
Eagles vs. Bears Odds
John LanFranca: The winds on Sunday will be between 10-15 mph, which may affect a few deep balls but otherwise not factor in much at all.
The Bears offense made major strides earlier in the season when they had their mini-bye following a 12-7 loss to the Commanders on Thursday Night Football in Week 6 (the last time a Bears game went under the total). They proceeded to score over 30 points in four straight games before Fields banged up his shoulder against the Falcons.
In fact, whenever this version of the Bears has faced another top offensive team, they were able to keep pace on the scoreboard — 29 in Dallas, 32 versus Miami and 20 versus Detroit. With the possibility of another 35-plus-point offensive explosion by the Eagles, I am comfortably playing the over and expect this game to cruise beyond 50 points easily.
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Cowboys vs. Jaguars Odds
Phillip Kall: On paper, this looks like a game the Cowboys should run away with. One of the most complete teams against a team that is no more than a passing attack led by Lawrence. But these are the games head coach Doug Pederson is able to find edges to exploit.
Early in the year, the Jags took down a hyped Chargers team and then jumped out to a 14-point lead on the Eagles the next week. Later in the year, they start the game with an onside kick against Kansas City. Two of these three examples ended in losses, but these were all games against teams with preseason prestige that Pederson jumped on early.
I expect this game to be a similar story. Whether it’s an aggressive fourth-down call or a trick play to flip the game, I expect Pederson to have something up his sleeve.
The difference in this contest will be a more confident Lawrence. I believe the comeback against the Ravens boosted his confidence and poise, and we saw it all come to fruition against the Titans.
The Cowboys under Mike McCarthy are known for not being the most disciplined team. They have a huge rivalry game against the Eagles coming up, and with this game meaning little for seeding, they may get caught looking ahead. On the other hand, Jacksonville is at a point where they have no losses to spare.
I trust Jacksonville to pull off an exciting upset as a home underdog.
Lions vs. Jets Odds
The Great Foosini: Let’s start with the projection.
I make the Jets 1-point home favorites, so I thought the line move toward the Lions after news broke Wilson would be starting was relatively justified, but ultimately wrong.
Again, this is a tough spot for the Lions. They’ve played only five games on the road and are coming off a three-game homestand, while the Jets come off two one-possession losses on the road. This is a buy-low and sell-high league, and this spot fits the mold for both teams.
Let’s look at how Detroit performs on the road. I’m most interested in the games they’ve lost, where they went to New England and Dallas for two massive losses.
What do those teams have in common? Defense.
If we look at which teams Detroit has beaten, we can see that none — especially over these last six games — have a top-15 defense. In fact, even starting with the Miami game, they are all bottom-10 defenses (with Buffalo as the lone wolf).
While the Lions offense has surged in performance from last season, there’s little doubt that the Jets defense is the best unit on the field on Sunday, with or without Williams available in the middle. I’m expecting that to show. I’m also expecting New York’s offense to take advantage of Detroit’s 24th-ranked defense.
The Jets have performed well against teams that have poor defenses: Cleveland, Miami, Green Bay and Chicago. While this line is fairly sharp, I absolutely love the situational spot and narrative buy here for New York. The Jets have played more road games than home, yet finally get a two-game home stand that’s not against their division rivals.
I’m expecting them to take advantage of this situation, Wilson to show people that he’s still alive, the Lions offense continue to struggle against top-five defenses and Robert Saleh to show that he’s got something to say about that Coach of the Year award.
Say it with me now: J-E-T-S, JETS JETS JETS.
Steelers vs. Panthers Odds
Dylan Wilkerson: If Carolina has any weakness on the defensive side of the ball, it is on the ground — the Panthers defense is giving up 102 rush yards per game to running backs.
Najee Harris appears to be ready to go for this NFC matchup and I’ll be banking on him to have a big day!
Chiefs vs. Texans Odds
Landon Silinsky: Despite being bereft of talent, the Texans are 5-7-1 against the spread (ATS), which isn’t as bad as some would have expected. The Chiefs sit 4-8-1 in that department, which does not inspire a ton of confidence.
The obvious way to play this game is to assume both teams put up points. We know the Chiefs are going to score and likely hit 30+, but if they build a huge lead, there could be quite a bit of garbage time for the Texans to take advantage of and push this game over 50 points.
Despite being down to second- and third-stringers at wide receiver, Houston could absolutely have some success through the air against a Kansas City defense that ranks 25th against the pass in DVOA.
This has the feel of a 33-20 game. I love the over here.
Patriots vs. Raiders Odds
Ricky Henne: Are we really backing Mac Jones here? I’m holding my nose and doing exactly that, banking him to do what virtually every quarterback has done, which is put up yards against Las Vegas.
Again, this as much an indictment of the Raiders’ abysmal pass defense as it is concern over New England’s ability to run the ball thanks to a banged-up crew. Even if Stevenson guts it out, it’s tough to rely on him being 100%. And if he can’t suit up, is Bill Belichick really going to rely on the legs of Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris, or the right arm of Jones?
As of Saturday afternoon, you could grab the line for his passing yards at 231.5. Jones has eclipsed that number in five of the nine games he’s played from start to finish.
At the same time, the Raiders have allowed teams to eclipse 230 yards in the air all but once this season. I’m not totally sold on Jones and wouldn’t go further than the 232.5 yards some sportsbooks are offering, but this number is low enough for me to back him.
Plus, you just know Belichick would relish a big game from Jones against his former pupil, right?
Cardinals vs. Broncos Odds
Blake Krass: It has been the story of the season for the Broncos, but I think the under is the only path here. The Broncos are 11-2 to the under this season, and Rypien will only help that cause.
McCoy should be the better of the two backup quarterbacks but faces a much tougher test against the Broncos’ elite secondary. I don’t think the Broncos will be able to produce any offense, and the Cardinals should go run-heavy with Conner.
I wouldn’t blame anyone for refusing to watch this game on Sunday. Hopefully you can just bet the under and take it as a good sign when it never pops up on NFL RedZone. I would bet this all the way down to 35.5 and love it at the current number of 37.5.
Titans vs. Chargers Odds
Cody Goggin: With the Chargers offense as close to full strength as it probably gets against a Titans defense dealing with a cluster of injuries in the secondary, Herbert should have a huge day. I don’t foresee the Titans slowing him down unless Vrabel pulls another miracle out of his bag of tricks, which he does manage from time to time.
The other side of this handicap is a bit more challenging. The Chargers defense is bad and without key players, but the Titans offense hasn’t been prolific by any means. The Chargers should win this game, but at the key number of three, I’m not certain that they can cover this spread.
Instead, I prefer taking the total to go over 46.5 points. I have faith in Tannehill and Henry leading the Titans offense to at least some success against the Chargers. And this game otherwise has sneaky potential to turn into a score-fest.
Forty-seven has been a key number in NFL betting in recent years, so I would advise against taking the over once it reaches 47 (check real-time NFL odds here).
Bengals vs. Buccaneers Odds
Anthony Dabbundo: I think we’ve reached the top of the market on Cincinnati here and the market isn’t fully pricing in the defensive injuries for the Bengals. Even though Tampa Bay looked awful last week against San Francisco, Cincinnati is a very different stylistic matchup.
First, the Buccaneers are at home, where Brady has been significantly more efficient as a passer in the last two seasons. The 49ers are a power run team that took advantage of Vea’s absence and created a ton of positive down and distance situations.
Tampa Bay’s defense thrives on getting you into third and long situations and the Bengals can be feast-or-famine at times on offense with Burrow still having a sack issue.
The number had actually teetered toward four on Friday after the positive injury news but that was quickly gobbled up and moved immediately back toward 3.5. That’s a signal that the Bengals are at their peak value here and I want to bet against them at that number.
I don’t have much interest on betting the Buccaneers at or below three though.