NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Lions To Cover vs. Seahawks, Broncos-Chargers Under Are Expert’s Biggest Edges
Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Lions RB D’Andre Swift
NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
|Lions +8.5 at Seahawks|
|Broncos-Chargers Under 45.5|
Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals the biggest edges based on his NFL Power Ratings for Week 17. He has a 513-410-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action App, where you can follow all of his picks.
4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
The Lions have been a frisky team all season and can keep games close, hence their 10-5 record against the spread (ATS).
They’re in a sneaky spot against the Seahawks, where we could see a decent amount of rain/wind. Those are conditions that would play right into the Lions’ approach on offense, given they possess the NFL’s lowest aDot (6.2) while Russell Wilson’s aDot (10.0) is the highest in the league.
The Lions will welcome back stud RB D’Andre Swift and should be able to lean on him as well as rookie receiver Amon St. Brown, who has been on fire of late. Meanwhile, the Seahawks will be without two starting offensive linemen and their offense could struggle to adjust to the rain and wind.
I’m projecting this closer to Lions +6 but would only bet them down to +7.5 (check real-time NFL odds here).
4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
I was projecting this total closer to 46.5 before Teddy Bridgewater was ruled out — and before Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick were also ruled out due to COVID.
That’s too many key absences on the offensive side of the ball to only see the total drop 1.5 points. Plus, if the Chargers can get to an early lead, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them become more run-heavy and head coach Brandon Staley take fewer chances with his in-game decision making.
The Chargers will also be welcoming back Derwin James, which is huge for the defense, and I have a hard time seeing how the Broncos will be able to put up points with Drew Lock missing two of his top wide receivers.
I’m now projecting this closer to 43 and would bet the under down to 44.5 points.