NFL Player Props: Betting Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott Overs in Cowboys vs Commanders
Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images. Pictured: Ezekiel Elliott (No. 21) and Dak Prescott (No. 4).
The Cowboys could enter the playoffs as high as the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, but it would take a lot for them to get there. Dallas will play to win this game against the Commanders, though, just in case, and also to enter the playoffs on a high note.
Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s player-prop projections, only available on Action Labs, are high on the two biggest names on the Cowboys offense this week: Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott.
There are plenty of edges to be had this week, but I’ll highlight these two to close the regular season.
Over 208.5 Passing Yards (FanDuel)
This is the first of two oddly low totals for key Cowboys offensive players. Prescott is projected by Koerner and Raybon for 234.5 passing yards, and he’s gone over that total in nine of his 11 starts this season.
So, what gives?
Well, it might have to do with the Cowboys’ incentive to play their starters this entire game. The Eagles are playing a Giants team that’s starting a backup at quarterback since New York cannot improve on its playoff seed. The only way Dallas can win the NFC East is if the Giants somehow beat Philadelphia (with Jalen Hurts).
With that, the idea is Dallas might see the Eagles winning at halftime or later in the game, and Prescott doesn’t see the end of the fourth quarter.
That’s not going to deter me.
Washington is averaging 195.9 passing yards against this season, and it does rank a solid 17th in Pass DVOA on defense. Prescott is better than most QBs the Commanders will have played this season, though.
My real concern is that Dallas absolutely blows the Commanders and Sam Howell out of the water, and that’s why Prescott doesn’t play in the fourth quarter. Let’s hope it’s close enough that Prescott plays all 60 minutes and — for the sake of this bet — Dallas enters the playoffs on a high note.
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Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel)
This is also an oddly low total, since Elliott has gone over this number in 11 of his 14 games this season. One of those unders was last week against the Titans, although Tennessee boasts one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
Elliott is a sure thing for 15 carries. He’s gotten that many in each of his last eight games and in 12 of his 14 appearances this season. He’s averaging 3.9 yards per carry, so that means he’s need 12.3 rushing attempts to go over this total.
The Commanders defense is 10th in Rush DVOA, and Chase Young is back from injury. Also, Elliott had his second-worst game of the season in terms of rushing efficiency against the Commanders back in Week 4, when he ran 19 times for 49 yards.
Still, this total is far too low for what Elliott has done this season, so we’re locking it in. Koerner and Raybon’s consensus projection pegs Elliott for 55 rushing yards, and he has run for more than 50 yards 10 times this season so I’d bet this to 51.5.