We have you covered with 10 NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 1.
Our staff has locked in props for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Buccaneers vs. Falcons and Dolphins vs. Colts, among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then we have a couple of props for the nationally televised game at 4:25 p.m. ET between the Lions and Packers. We also have bets for Giants vs. Commanders, Steelers vs. Jets, and Bills vs. Ravens.
Let's dig into our NFL props and best bets for the first Sunday slate of the 2025 NFL season.
NFL Player Props Week 1
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Buccaneers vs Falcons
Drake London Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-115; BetMGM)
This number is up to 80.5 on DraftKings. I'd expect the other books to move that way as we get closer to Sunday.
Drake London put up absurd usage in Michael Penix Jr.'s three starts last season. He led the league in targets (39) and receiving yards (352) with Penix at the helm.
London posted an elite 41% target per route run rate (TPRR) and averaged 3.74 yards per route run (YPRR) in that stretch.
To put that per-route data into context, Puka Nacua led the league (minimum 50 routes) in TPRR at 36% and Rashee Rice led the league (minimum 50 routes) in YPRR at 3.47.
It's a relatively small sample, of course, but London produced like the best receiver in football for Penix's three starts.
Tampa Bay surrendered the fourth-most pass yards last season. Its only notable addition on defense was Haason Reddick, who is now on his fifth team in the past six seasons following a disastrous stint with the Jets.
This game has a tight spread and a high total.
We should see healthy passing volume from the Falcons as they try to keep up with Baker Mayfield and company.
With Darnell Mooney struggling through a shoulder injury, it's basically London and Bijan Robinson as Penix's options through the air.
Pick: Drake London Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-115; BetMGM)
Dolphins vs. Colts
Jonathan Taylor Over 16.5 Longest Rush (-115; bet365)
By Brit Devine
Jonathan Taylor played in 14 games last season and went over this line in nine of them, including games with Anthony Richardson at QB (siphoning some carries away).
It’s also nice to see that down the stretch last season, the Colts really turned the offense over to Taylor, giving just 14 rushing attempts to other RBs over the team's last five games.
Taylor enters the season fully healthy with no threat behind him to steal work; the Colts may have the weakest RB depth in the league behind Taylor.
Indoors in perfect conditions, Taylor should have no trouble breaking off a big run or two as a threat to lead the league in rushing attempts and yards for Week 1.
I would play this line up to 17.5 yards.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 16.5 Longest Rush (-115; bet365)
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Raiders vs. Patriots
Ashton Jeanty Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105)
By Brit Devine
I'm shocked we are getting plus-money on this prop; I expect Ashton Jeanty to have one of the biggest workloads in the NFL this season.
New Raiders offensive coordinator Chip Kelly likes to run the ball, and we know head coach Pete Carroll does as well.
With a true three-down skill set and one of the best profiles to come out of college in a while, Jeanty should have every opportunity to shine.
The Raiders' offense should take a big step forward this season, and with other bell-cow RBs approaching odds of -150 or worse to score, getting this anywhere close to even-money is a smash for Week 1.
Pick: Ashton Jeanty Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105)
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Cardinals vs. Saints
James Conner Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-113; DraftKings)
By Brit Devine
James Conner's line looks a little low to start the season with the Cardinals big favorites against what looks like the league's worst team in the Saints.
Not only should the Saints struggle on offense, but the defense looks equally as bad, with little to no improvement in the offseason.
They spent no draft capital in the first or second round of the draft on defense, and the only major addition was safety Justin Reid in free agency.
Conner always seems to be undervalued, even though he produces at an elite level.
Among full-time RBs last season, he was second in missed tackles forced per attempt, 11th in yards after contact, and averaged 68.5 rushing yards per game.
I wonder why his prop is at 68.5 …
The books do silly things like take season averages into account more than they should, but for this game, we are looking back at the games in which Arizona won.
Conner averaged 87.4 rushing yards in games Arizona won last season, and as heavy favorites, I'm looking for him to easily blow past this line.
Pick: James Conner Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-113; DraftKings)
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Steelers vs. Jets
Aaron Rodgers Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-180; Caesars)
By Nick Galaida
Aaron Rodgers struggled mightily last season and is now another year older, playing in another new system this season.
In Pittsburgh's season opener, he will have to go on the road as well.
Rodgers didn't play in any of the Steelers' preseason games this year, which often leads to some rust for quarterbacks in Week 1.
Last season in Week 1, quarterbacks who didn't play in the preseason went 1-9 to the over against this 1.5 passing touchdowns line, 3-7 to the over on their passing yards prop, and 4-6 to the over on their team total.
Pick: Aaron Rodgers Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-180; Caesars)
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Giants vs. Commanders
Chris Rodriguez Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-110; bet365)
By Kyle Murray
Obviously, the Jacory Croskey-Merritt hype train has been all the rage, but several beat writers suggest Chris Rodriguez has a really good chance to actually be the lead back for the Commanders, at least early in the season.
The Giants were actually quite good against the run last season, but the Commanders should be in a spot to run the ball early and often in this game, as they are six-point favorites.
Rodriguez has also been quite efficient when given the chance. He has averaged 4.85 yards per carry over the last two seasons, and he averaged 6.7 yards per carry in his three preseason games this year.
Pick: Chris Rodriguez Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-110; bet365)
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49ers vs. Seahawks
George Kittle Anytime TD Scorer (+175; FanDuel)
The 49ers' offense is full of injuries, with Brandon Aiyuk not playing, Jauan Jennings potentially not playing and Christian McCaffrey potentially out.
Factor in the departure of Deebo Samuel, and you have a perfect recipe for George Kittle to be in for huge volume.
Kittle scored eight touchdowns last season, and he should be in line for even more volume to start the season, given the lack of playmakers in the offense at the moment.
The overall matchup is tough, but at these odds, Kittle has a ton of value.
Pick: George Kittle Anytime TD Scorer (+175; FanDuel)
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Lions vs. Packers
David Montgomery Anytime TD Scorer (+155; BetMGM)
By Grant Neiffer
I know Jahmyr Gibbs is the more talented running back on the Lions, but I wouldn't be surprised if we continue to see a similar split to what we saw last season with David Montgomery serving as the goal-line back.
Head coach Dan Campbell has always given the goal-line carries to more of a power back, going back to Jamaal Williams in 2022.
Montgomery scored in 10 of his 14 games last season, punching in a massive total of 12 touchdowns in those contests.
This game is going to be played outdoors, and with the addition of Micah Parsons to the Packers, they got a big upgrade in pass defense and a big downgrade in run defense.
Even with a completely different set of coordinators, we can expect the Lions to run the ball heavily this season, and with Jared Goff's struggles outdoors, we can expect the Lions to rely on the run even more here.
I have Montgomery close to a coin flip to score here, making this a great bet.
Pick: David Montgomery Anytime TD Scorer (+155; BetMGM)
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Texans vs. Rams
Davante Adams Anytime TD Scorer (+150; BetMGM)
By Grant Neiffer
Davante Adams is getting up there in age, but there isn't much suggesting that he isn't still capable of being a top-tier wide receiver.
We can safely assume that he's going to come into this offense and take Cooper Kupp's targets, and the offense is going to flow through him, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams.
Adams has been one of the top TD threats through the air for years, and even in terrible offenses with the Raiders and Jets last season, he still managed to score eight touchdowns.
I have the true odds here around +120, making this a great bet.
Pick: Davante Adams Anytime TD Scorer (+150; BetMGM)
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Ravens vs. Bills
Josh Allen Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+105; BetMGM)
By Nick Galaida
Last season, Josh Allen threw multiple touchdown passes in 10-of-16 regular-season games en route to winning the MVP award.
However, heading into Week 1 this season, his wide receiver corps is a little bit banged up. He also has a tough test right out of the gate, facing a strong Ravens defense.
Allen didn't play in any of the team's preseason games this year, which often leads to some rust for quarterbacks in Week 1. The QB trends I mentioned in the Aaron Rodgers section above apply here to Allen.
Pick: Josh Allen Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+105; BetMGM)
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