We have you covered with a total of eight NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 13.
Our staff has locked in prop bets for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Jaguars vs Titans, Rams vs Panthers, and 49ers vs Browns, among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, we have picks for later in the day for Vikings vs Seahawks and Raiders vs. Chargers.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Week 13 of the NFL season on November 30.
NFL Player Props Week 13
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Jaguars vs. Titans
Travis Etienne Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Chris Prince
Jacksonville's Travis Etienne is averaging 74.1 rushing yards per game on the season, and he has cleared this number in four straight games.
The Jaguars are 6-point favorites, so the game script should be favorable, and the Titans have allowed an average of 132.8 rushing yards per game.
The Titans have held only two opponents under 114 rushing yards in a game this season, and those teams were the Raiders and Texans, who aren't exactly rushing juggernauts.
Even with Bhayshul Tuten involved, Etienne has still operated as the clear lead back. He's averaged 18 carries per game over the past four games and 4.8 yards per carry on the season.
We have a guy who is averaging 74 rushing yards per game on the season and is now seeing more work. If we extrapolate that out with his averages of 18 carries and 4.8 yards per carry, it gives us an output of 86.4 rushing yards.
This number simply makes no sense to me, so I'm going to risk 2 units.
Pick: Travis Etienne Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Rams vs. Panthers
Kyren Williams Under 16.5 Rush Attempts (-114)
Kyren Williams hasn't had his typical rushing share for much of the season. After 17+ carries in each of the first three games, Williams has maxed out at 14 carries from Weeks 4-7.
He spiked with a 25-carry game coming out of a bye week against New Orleans, but has slipped back to 12.7 carries per game over the past three contests. Williams has handled 67% of the running back carries this season; that number was 80% last season.
The Rams are sixth in neutral pass rate. They should roll again this week as big favorites against Carolina, although that hasn't mattered for rushing volume.
The Rams have won six straight games, and five of those wins have been by double digits.
Williams has topped 14 carries in just one of those games (the aforementioned 25-carry game against New Orleans when the Rams were trying to get him a touchdown).
Pick: Kyren Williams Under 16.5 Rush Attempts (-114)
49ers vs. Browns
Shedeur Sanders Over 13.5 Completions (-114)
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Shedeur Sanders' completions prop.
THE BLITZ is projecting 20.48 completions for the Browns quarterback with an 85% chance that he exceeds 13.5 completions.
If you can get the over at -114 or better, there is some great value here. This play is good down to at least -279.
Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Shedeur Sanders Over 13.5 Completions (-114)
49ers vs. Browns
George Kittle Under 4.5 Receptions (+120)
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on George Kittle's receptions prop.
THE BLITZ is projecting the 49ers tight end to record 4.05 receptions, while sportsbooks imply 5.40.
The model believes there is a 63% chance he records fewer than 4.5 receptions, so there is some value on the under at +120. This play is good down to at least -123.
Pick: George Kittle Under 4.5 Receptions (+120)
49ers vs. Browns
Brock Purdy Over 18.5 Completions (-108)
By Chris Prince
The Browns have been one of the best defenses in the league against the run, and while I am not expecting the Niners to abandon the run, I do expect them to attack more through the air.
Christian McCaffrey is one of the best receiving backs in the league, so getting the ball in his hands more in the passing game makes a ton of sense in this spot.
The Niners are also getting healthier, with George Kittle, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall back and providing Brock Purdy with a ton of weapons he can go to.
Purdy has cleared this number in all four of his starts this season, averaging 22.5 completions per game.
Pick: Brock Purdy Over 18.5 Completions (-108)
Saints vs. Dolphins
Tyler Shough Under 21.5 Completions (-113)
By Derek Carty
There may be some value on the completions prop for Saints quarterback Tyler Shough.
THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 18.42 completions, and the oddsmakers are implying 21.84.
The model believes there is a 74% chance he records fewer than 21.5 completions. If you can get the under at -113 or better, there is some great value here. This play is good down to at least -183.
Pick: Tyler Shough Under 21.5 Completions (-113)
Vikings vs. Seahawks
Sam Darnold Under 29.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
We hit this one last week. I'm going right back to it, fading QB Sam Darnold with Seattle favored heavily again.
After another run-heavy game, the Seahawks are down to the third-lowest neutral pass rate at 54.7%. As I mentioned last week, that number tumbles to 42.3% when they're leading by a touchdown or more.
Seattle has had a lead of 7+ points for 298 snaps, which is the most in the league by 21. They're double-digit home favorites and facing Max Brosmer in his NFL debut. This one could get ugly quick.
Opponents have chosen to pass on the Vikings at the lowest rate in the league. The Vikings have seen just a 48.8% pass rate this season.
For context, there have only been three instances in the past 10 seasons of a defense having a sub-50% opponent passing rate.
Pick: Sam Darnold Under 29.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
Vikings vs. Seahawks
Ladd McConkey Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+240)
The potential for a blowout is a concern here with the Chargers nearly 10-point favorites, but these odds for Ladd McConkey are too high.
After starting off the season slowly, McConkey has become the Chargers' WR1 again. He has scored in four of the last seven games, and the volume continues to be there when games stay close.
I have the true odds here around +200.
