We have you covered with a total of eight NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 16.
Our staff has locked in prop bets for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Chargers vs Cowboys, Vikings vs Giants among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, we have picks for later in the day for Steelers vs Lions and Raiders vs Texans. We also have bets for Bengals vs Dolphins, Falcons vs Cardinals, and more.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Week 16 of the NFL season on December 21.
NFL Player Props Week 16
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Chargers vs. Cowboys
George Pickens Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
George Pickens has been struggling the last few weeks, but this is a good get-right spot.
The game should be close (2.5-point spread), and the Cowboys will likely be forced to pass at a high rate.
While CeeDee Lamb has been one of the best WRs in the league vs. man coverage, Pickens has been the better WR vs. zone — leading the team in yards per route run vs. zone.
I have Pickens projected for almost 10 yards over this number, making this a great bet.
Pick: George Pickens Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Bryce Young Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-115)
I'm running this one back after an easy cash last week.
Bryce Young passed the ball just 24 times in a loss to New Orleans. He's now failed to exceed 30 pass attempts in 10 of the past 11 games. Carolina is dead last in neutral pass rate in that stretch.
Teams tend to prefer passing against the Bucs, but those teams aren't coached by Dave Canales.
Carolina stayed committed to the run last week, even with Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard turning 24 carries into just 78 yards.
Tampa Bay hasn't been as impressive against the run this season. I'm expecting Carolina to keep pounding with the ground game.
Pick: Bryce Young Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-115)
Bengals vs. Dolphins
Quinn Ewers Over 180.5 Passing Yards (-110)
By Chris Prince
This one is risky, but there are a multitude of factors working in our favor.
While the Dolphins aren't playing for anything as a team, Quinn Ewers has everything to play for, and the Dolphins will want to get a good look at his future potential.
He is surrounded by some great weapons, and the Dolphins are underdogs in this game.
Plus, there isn't a much better spot for a quarterback than a game against the Bengals, as they have allowed the 6th-most passing yards per game this season (255.9).
Pick: Quinn Ewers Over 180.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Jets vs. Saints
Chris Olave Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
By Brit Devine
With Devaughn Vele out and Mason Tipton missing practice on Thursday with an illness, we should see Chris Olave jump back into the alpha role in the passing game for the Saints.
Vele has been earning targets from Tyler Shough, seeing 26 of them over the past four weeks.
The Saints' WR depth is nonexistent with Vele out, and I'm expecting Olave to get peppered with targets from the start in this one, just like he did at the end of last week's games once Vele was injured.
Olave should also fare well against the coverage matchup — the Jets play one of the highest rates of man coverage in the league.
Olave leads the Saints in nearly every category that matters for production against man coverage; he should find plenty of opportunities to get open against a crumbling Jets defense.
Pick: Chris Olave Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Vikings vs. Giants
Devin Singletary Under 9.5 Rush Attempts (-140)
By Kyle Murray
This has some juice, but it still looks like a really solid bet.
Devin Singletary was very clearly the RB2 last week with Tyrone Tracy Jr. fully healthy, and as a result, he played just 24% of snaps and had just five carries.
Singletary's role alone would be enough to have interest in this bet, but the game script is also one that could lead to decreased rushing volume for the Giants, as they are underdogs against Minnesota in this game.
Pick: Devin Singletary Under 9.5 Rush Attempts (-140)
Falcons vs. Cardinals
Jacoby Brissett Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-115)
The Cardinals lead the league in neutral pass rate. They’ve pushed that number even higher with Jacoby Brissett under center. He’s chucked it 40+ times in six straight games.
Arizona has also been crushed by running back injuries.
It’s hard to see them handing the ball to Michael Carter and Emari Demercado instead of slinging it to Trey McBride and Michael Wilson.
Pick: Jacoby Brissett Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-115)
Steelers vs. Lions
Aaron Rodgers Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-125)
By Grant Neiffer
This line is far too low given the spot.
The Lions have historically been a pass-funnel defense, and while that hasn't been the case as much this season, their secondary is so beat up that there is no reason for the Steelers not to pass a lot.
Aaron Rodgers isn't the same QB he used to be, but being a 7-point 'dog against a tough run defense in a dome, he's likely going to be throwing the ball more than we've seen from him lately.
I have Rodgers projected for three attempts over this number.
Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-125)
Raiders vs. Texans
C.J. Stroud Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-110)
By Grant Neiffer
The blowout is absolutely a worry, but this matchup is far too good to pass up.
The Texans have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and Stroud has struggled heavily when pressured.
However, when Stroud has a clean pocket, he's lit up opposing defenses.
The Raiders are bottom-3 in pressure rate this season, and in the two games that C.J. Stroud has faced a team that ranked bottom-4 in pressure rate, he put up 318 passing yards (49ers) and 260 passing yards (Cardinals).
Even if this game gets out of hand, it likely means that Stroud got it there.
I have Stroud projected for 20 yards over this number.
