We have you covered with a total of seven NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 9.
Our staff has locked in prop bets for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Lions vs Vikings, 49ers vs Giants among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, we have a pair of picks for later in the day for Jaguars vs Raiders and Chiefs vs Bills. We also have bets for Bears vs Bengals, Chargers vs Titans and more.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Week 9 of the NFL season on November 2.
NFL Player Props Week 9
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
49ers vs. Giants
Kendrick Bourne Under 3.5 Receptions (-130)
Kendrick Bourne stepped up when San Francisco's main pass-catchers were injured, but he seems to be shifting back to a field-stretching role.
Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle all missed time over the first six weeks of the season.
Bourne posted a decent 16% target share and a 21% target per route run rate. Most importantly, his average depth of target was 9.1 yards.
With Kittle and Jennings available the past two weeks, Bourne's target share has fallen to 10.3%. His target per route run rate is down to 12%.
Crucially, his aDOT is up to 14 yards. It's hard to rack up catches when you're operating that far down the field.
New York is banged up in the secondary, so Bourne could definitely get loose for a big play or two. It's just hard to see the volume being there.
Pick: Kendrick Bourne Under 3.5 Receptions (-130)
Vikings vs. Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD (+100)
By Chris Prince
Plus-odds on Amon-Ra St. Brown to score a touchdown in the friendly confines of Ford Field with Detroit's team total sitting at 28.5 points? Sign me up!
St. Brown has a nice history of finding the end zone at home, scoring in seven of his last 10 games dating back to last season. He has scored six touchdowns at home this season in only three games.
He has also played well against the Vikings defense, finding the end zone in three of the past four meetings between these two teams.
Minnesota has allowed seven receiving touchdowns to wideouts this season, which ranks bottom-12 in the league.
This prop shouldn't be in the plus-money range, but I'm happy to take advantage.
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD (+100)
Bears vs. Bengals
Cole Kmet Anytime TD (+425)
Cole Kmet hasn't been great this season, but the spot here is too good to pass up at this price.
The Bengals have been absolutely terrible this season against TEs, giving up the most TDs in the league at 10, with six being the second-highest in that department.
Their defense has been horrible, and with Joe Flacco at quarterback, they can actually keep games close, forcing the opposing team to throw the ball.
I have the true odds on Kmet around +400 in this spot, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Cole Kmet Anytime TD (+425)
Chargers vs. Titans
Kimani Vidal Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Chris Prince
There are still a few books lagging behind as this prop has climbed to as high as 77.5 in some other spots, so take advantage here while these lines are still out there.
To be clear, I would play this one up to 80.5, as Kimani Vidal finds himself in a tremendous spot against the Titans.
Vidal is operating as the clear workhorse running back for the Chargers, and they are hefty 9.5-point favorites against a hapless Titans defense.
Vidal saw a whopping 23 carries in a blowout game script last week against the Vikings, and he's gone over 115 rushing yards in two of his last three games.
The Titans haven't stopped anybody on the ground this season; they've allowed every team outside of the Raiders to rush for at least 129 yards, and they have given up the second-most rushing yards per game to running backs (119.4).
This is a smash spot for Vidal, with alternates and ladders on the menu for me as well.
Pick: Kimani Vidal Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Colts vs. Steelers
Alec Pierce Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards (-115)
By Brit Devine
Alec Pierce has hit this in five of six games this season, with all five of those games coming in at 26+ yards. His only miss was a game with a longest reception of 19 yards in a game against the Titans that was over in the third quarter.
Pierce has the second-highest aDOT (21.0 yards) in the league of any player with at least 50 routes run. He is clearly the downfield threat for a Colts offense that is the best in the league right now.
The Steelers have played the fifth-most man coverage and the third-most single-high safety coverage, both of which are coverages that Pierce leads the team in in targets per route run of the full-time receivers.
The Steelers have also allowed the most passing yards in the league when blitzing, while Pierce leads the team in receiving yards against the blitz (despite missing two games).
One catch should be all this takes in what is basically the best matchup Pierce can have, on paper.
Pick: Alec Pierce Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards (-115)
Jaguars vs. Raiders
Parker Washington Over 3.5 Receptions (-115)
By Kyle Murray
With the news of Travis Hunter hitting the IR, Parker Washington is set to get a big bump in his role for the Jaguars.
This season, Hunter has run 154 routes from the slot, and Washington is third on the team with 62 (just behind Brian Thomas Jr. at 67).
Washington should be in line to take over that slot position, where he could easily have a high-volume role with a lot of his targets coming in high-catch-rate scenarios.
Pick: Parker Washington Over 3.5 Receptions (-115)
Chiefs vs. Bills
Josh Allen Over 7.5 Rushing Attempts (+100)
By Brit Devine
This would be a bad bet based solely on Josh Allen's rushing volume this season, but I'm looking more toward the opponent in this one in the biggest game of the season for the Bills.
These are the games you want to bank on Allen putting his body on the line for his team. Allen has recorded double-digit rushing attempts against the Chiefs in his last seven meetings against them (including the playoffs).
In his career, Allen is 8-for-9 against this line in matchups against the Chiefs, with his only loss being a game with seven rushing attempts.
These big matchups (or matchups at the end of the season with playoff implications) are when I am willing to fully back the rushing efforts from Allen, and there is simply no bigger game this season for them than this one.
