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NFL Playoff Picture, Win Total Projections: Power Ratings Look Ahead in AFC & NFC

NFL Playoff Picture, Win Total Projections: Power Ratings Look Ahead in AFC & NFC article feature image
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Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Hurts.

After Week 7 in the NFL, some surprising results shook up the playoff picture even further.

Here at the Predictive Analytics team, we update our NFL Power Ratings every week, projecting the number of victories that a team is projected to have at the end of the season. Using that win total, we’ll see what the playoff picture would look like.

For reference, here is what the NFL playoff picture currently looks like. Remember, only one team per conference gets a bye into the Divisional Round, and there are three Wild Card spots available.

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Current NFL Playoff Picture

As it currently stands, the Bills and the Eagles control home field advantage with half and one-game edges over the second-place teams, respectively. The Chiefs and the Vikings follow suit, and behind them is an interesting group of teams.

AFC

  1. Buffalo Bills (5-1)
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
  3. Tennessee Titans (4-2)
  4. Baltimore Ravens (4-3)
  5. New York Jets (5-2)
  6. Miami Dolphins (4-3)
  7. Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)

NFC

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)
  2. Minnesota Vikings (5-1)
  3. Seattle Seahawks (4-3)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)
  5. New York Giants (6-1)
  6. Dallas Cowboys (5-2)
  7. Los Angeles Rams (3-3)

Projected NFL Playoff Picture

Our projections have a few teams making the postseason that aren’t currently involved, including the Packers and Bengals.

Projected number of wins in parentheses

AFC

  1. Buffalo Bills (14.01)
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (12.23)
  3. Baltimore Ravens (10.27)
  4. Tennessee Titans (9.40)
  5. Cincinnati Bengals (10.0)
  6. Miami Dolphins (9.63)
  7. New York Jets (9.28)

NFC

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (14.09)
  2. Minnesota Vikings (10.90)
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9.20)
  4. San Francisco 49ers (8.79)
  5. New York Giants (10.90)
  6. Dallas Cowboys (9.53)
  7. Green Bay Packers (8.59)

According to our Power Ratings, the Jets could be making an appearance in the playoffs, as well as their New York peer, the Giants.

Full win total projections can be found below.


For win total projections and over/under odds, click here for a downloadable spreadsheet featuring odds at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM.


Updated AFC Win Projections

AFC Team Projected Win Total
Bills 14.01
Chiefs 12.23
Ravens 10.27
Bengals 10.0
Dolphins 9.63
Titans 9.40
Jets 9.28
Chargers 9.02
Colts 8.29
Raiders 8.23
Patriots 7.12
Browns 6.83
Jaguars 6.68
Broncos 6.15
Steelers 5.51
Texans 4.90
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Updated NFC Win Projections

NFC Team Projected Win Total
Eagles 14.09
Vikings 10.90
Giants 10.90
Cowboys 9.53
Buccaneers 9.20
49ers 8.79
Packers 8.59
Rams 8.53
Seahawks 8.35
Falcons 7.68
Cardinals 7.42
Commanders 7.25
Saints 6.39
Bears 6.38
Lions 5.31
Panthers 5.01

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