NFL Playoff Props For AFC Championship & NFC Championship: Matthew Stafford, Deebo Samuel, Ja’Marr Chase, More
Getty Images. Pictured: Deebo Samuel, Matthew Stafford and Ja’Marr Chase (left to right)
With what was perhaps the most exciting Divisional Round in NFL history in the rearview mirror, the four surviving teams now turn their attention to the Conference Championships.
The action will start on Sunday with the AFC Championship Game at 3 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, where the Bengals will attempt to pull off another upset against the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are looking to stamp their Super Bowl tickets for a third straight year.
The two-game slate will continue with the NFC Championship Game at 6:30 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, where the Rams will try to atone for their two regular-season losses to their NFC West rivals, the 49ers.
What are player props? They’re bets on a player’s statistical outcome. Learn more here.
NFL Playoff Props
Ja’Marr Chase Over 87.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Chase put on a spectacular master class in these two teams’ first meeting in Week 17. He reeled in 11 of 12 targets for three touchdowns and a whopping 266 yards, which was the most receiving yards recorded in a single game this year and the 16th-most in a single game ever. The rookie has been electric all season, especially of late: He has tallied 640 receiving yards over the last five games, including one 26-receiving yard game Brandon Allen started in Week 18. Chase is coming off of a solid Divisional Round game against the Titans in which he caught 109 yards. I expect him to carve up the Chiefs defense, which allowed the sixth-most receiving yards in the regular season, and would bet this up to 94 yards.
Deebo Samuel Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)
Don’t get me wrong, I was happy for the 49ers after they pulled off a stunning upset over the Packers, but it was absolutely soul-crushing that Samuel’s rushing yards over did not hit. He missed the over ever-so-slightly last week with 39 rushing yards due in part to getting knocked out of the game early with a knee contusion. In these two teams’ previous meetings, he tallied 36 yards in Week 10 and 45 yards in Week 18. He is not currently on the 49ers’ injury report and head coach Kyle Shanahan says he wants to get the versatile wide-back the ball on, “almost every play.” It’s not the worst plan considering the team is a perfect 8-0 in games this year where Samuel tallied at least six carries. Assuming he can stay healthy for all 60 minutes of this game, this feels like an easy over and I would bet this up to 43 yards.
Matthew Stafford Under 279.5 Passing Yards (DraftKings)
Stafford posted a very strong 2021 and averaged 287 passing yards per game in the regular season. He looked stellar last week against the Buccaneers and tossed 366 yards in the Rams’ win. However, he has struggled against the 49ers this season (as many teams have) and threw for just 243 yards in Week 10 and 238 yards in Week 18 — both of which were losses for the Rams. San Francisco has just been extremely tough against the pass this year and allowed just 206 passing yards per game in the regular season — the sixth-fewest in the NFL. I expect this game to be fairly run-heavy and I would bet this all the way down to 269 yards.
BONUS: Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Interceptions (DraftKings)
For all you overachievers out there, my bonus pick this week is the over on Stafford’s interceptions. He has been turnover-free in the last two games, which is a huge relief after he tossed eight interceptions and fumbled once in the four weeks prior. Stafford was picked off twice in each of these two teams’ earlier meetings this year — both of which were very subpar games for the former Lions’ signal-caller. It isn’t the best value where I grabbed it at -145 (shop for the best updated line here), but if you expect Stafford to struggle as mentioned in the previous pick, it could be worth pairing together.