NFL Predictions: Data-Driven Picks for Divisional Round (Sunday)
Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Jones.
NFL Predictions: Data-Driven Picks for Divisional Round (Sunday)
Action Network's Predictive Analytics team has four data-driven picks for the Divisional Round Sunday slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:30 p.m. | ||
| 6:30 p.m. | ||
| 3 p.m. | ||
| 3 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Buccaneers vs. Lions
By Nick Giffen
The Luck Total of -2.7 is enough to back the under, but with 89% of the money coming in on the over, I'm content to wait this out until closer to kickoff before taking it.
The line has moved from 48.5 to as high as 50 as of Saturday night, and I expect the full market to move upward still based on the heavy over money.
If we see any movement downward, it's time to pounce on the under.
Pick: Under 50 (-110)
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Buccaneers vs. Lions
By Billy Ward
I’ve learned my lesson on blindly betting Detroit overs at home. That’s following their Wild Card game, where there were 38 first-half points – followed by just nine in the second.
The Lions want to be a run heavy team. They rank 27th in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) and 28th in overall pass rate. That mostly comes out in the second half, where they protect leads by playing slower than average from the front despite an overall quick pace.
That hasn’t always led to lower scoring second halves, though, thanks to a solid run game. That’s where the Bucs come in.
Tampa Bay is one of the tougher teams to run against, ranking fifth in yards allowed per carry but 24th in yards allowed per pass. That should limit the Lions if and when they switch to a run-heavy approach.
That’s all on top of the usual logic that points toward higher-scoring first halves in games with wider spreads. Figuring out firm numbers on this is one of my offseason projects, but we’d expect less offense with one team protecting a decent-sized lead.
The Lions are favored by 6.5-point, making it a reasonable assumption that they control this one late.
Pick: Highest Scoring Half — 1st (-110)
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Chiefs vs. Bills
By Nick Giffen
This is not a luck under – in fact, the Luck Total is technically +0.4, but that just puts it in neutral territory as far as luck is concerned, so let’s look at other factors.
There a real split to how pros vs. Joes are betting in our Pro Report – 63% of the bets are on the over, but 71% of the money is on the under.
Both of these teams played in games that had final scores that came in above the total Expected Score in the Wild Card Round.
- PIT/BUF 48 total pts vs. 45.2 expected
- MIA/KC 33 total pts vs. 31.2 expected
I'm projecting the under as well:
- Average total Expected Score in Chiefs games this year: 39.1
- Average total Expected Score in Bills games this year: 45.1
- Actual totals per game: 45 (BUF); 38.8 (KC)
How are we supposed to get to 45.5 in cold, possibly windy weather? These teams played to 37 total points and a 41.2 total Expected Score in Week 14, both well under 45.5.
Pick: Under 45.5 (-110)
Chiefs vs. Bills
By Nick Giffen
Allen has gone over his rushing yards prop in his last three games, which I think is inflating this a bit.
He’s averaged 44 rushing yards in the eight games since Bills made the move from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady at offensive coordinator. However, his median is 38.
The Chiefs have allowed the most rush attempts to QBs, but that’s because they are often ahead and quarterbacks will scramble on them in a negative game script. There’s a real chance Kansas City will be playing from behind in this game.
When QBs do run, the Chiefs allow the seventh-lowest yards per attempt.
In the Week 14 Bills-Chiefs game, Allen rushed 10 times but totaled just 32 yards in a 20-17 Buffalo win.
Pick: Josh Allen Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
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