NFL Predictions Week 10: Data-Driven Picks for Jahmyr Gibbs, Joshua Dobbs, More
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Jahmyr Gibbs.
NFL Predictions Week 10: Data-Driven Picks for Jahmyr Gibbs, Joshua Dobbs, More
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our Predictive Analytics betting staff is targeting in the NFL Week 10 Sunday slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific prop bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 9:30 a.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 4:05 p.m. | ||
| 8:20 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Colts vs. Patriots
By Nick Giffen
The Colts are the sixth-most run heavy team in terms of pass rate over expectation (PROE), which means one of two things — either they’ll be running into a Patriots defense that is fifth in defensive rush DVOA, or Indianapolis will have to pass more, which is the less efficient facet of its offense.
In addition, the unique combination of the Colts' scoring luck (5.5 more per game than expected) and the Patriots' bad luck allowing points (3.7 more per game than expected) means the Colts have a Luck Team Total of -9.25, nearly six full points lower than any other team on Sunday.
Indianapolis just faced a much worse defense in the Panthers and scored 27 points. However, we have to remember 14 of those came off two Bryce Young pick-sixes. Without those, they score 13 points.
That would have put them fifth lowest on last week’s Sunday slate, which included zero points from Clayton Tune under center for the Cardinals, three points from the Brett Rypien-led Rams and six points from Tommy DeVito and the Giants.
Only DeVito is going to be in a repeat spot this week, and there may be some avenues for the Giants to get points. It’s possible Dallas rests its defensive starters late in a blowout, allowing the Giants to put up some garbage time points. Maybe Dak Prescott throws a pick-six. Or, possibly, DeVito simply improves from start one to start two.
If the Giants can score some points, then the combination of luck regression and Gardner Minshew struggling to pass the ball against a Patriots team that’s already solid against the run make this a flier worth taking.
Pick: Colts Lowest Scoring Team on Sunday (+3500)
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49ers vs. Jaguars
By Billy Ward
I understand why the total for this game is a bit lower than the week’s top options. Lions-Chargers sits at 48 points and Texans-Bengals at 47 — 49ers-Jags is just 44.5.
The 49ers scored exactly 17 points in three consecutive weeks before getting to their Week 9 bye week. However, none of those games featured Deebo Samuel for more than a few minutes. In games with Samuel active, the 49ers have scored no less than 33 points in any game. He’s a difference-maker for their offense, while the Jaguars have the firepower to keep pace.
I’m also bearish on the other two games mentioned. Cincinnati has been ineffective in the run game this season and will be missing Tee Higgins, not to mention Ja’Marr Chase could be limited with a back injury. As for the Texans, they’re also without their top running back (Dameon Pierce) and 1B wide receiver (Nico Collins), so that game could end up disappointing.
While the Lions and Chargers both have theoretically explosive offenses, Los Angeles is extremely thin at wide receiver behind Keenan Allen. Detroit is getting David Montgomery back and if it gets an early lead the game could turn into a slow-paced affair.
All of which gives Niners-Jags the best shootout potential on the slate, with a juicy +600 price.
Pick: Highest Scoring Game (+600)
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Texans vs. Bengals
By Nick Giffen
Stroud has been excellent this year, posting a Bad Ball Rate (BB%) among the lowest in the league at just 8.8%. Even then, he’s still been incredibly lucky to have just one interception.
Based off his 24 bad balls, we’d expect around 4.7 interceptions on average at this point for Stroud, putting him 3.7 interceptions below expectation.
He faces a Bengals defense that has been middle of the pack in BB%, but ranks ninth in PFF’s Turnover Worthy Play% (TWP%).
Add in the high volume of pass attempts – I’m projecting 36.5 – and this is a spot where the odds are too long. I have fair value at +110.
Pick: C.J. Stroud Interception (+126)
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Titans vs. Buccaneers
By Billy Ward
This game features teams that like to lean on the run, but they are both facing defenses that typically force opponents to the air.
The above statement is a matter of degrees, of course. The Titans are the heaviest pass funnel in the league, while the Bucs are only moderately better at stopping the run than the pass. Tampa also has only a slightly negative Pass Rate Over Expectation, while Tennessee ranks 26th.
Still, that suggests some mostly ineffectual pounding of the rock to start the game, with at least one team opening it up in the second half. Ideally for this pick it would be the Bucs, who have the more effective passing offense and are taking on the weaker passing defense.
That scenario would also lead to plenty of volume for Derrick Henry in the second half. Anecdotally, his bruising style of running gets more effective as the game wears on, and battered defenders start making business decisions.
All of which should increase scoring as we get deeper into this game, especially if the Titans are able to keep things close. DraftKings has this line priced at -125, which is closer to what I’d make the line.
Fortunately, FanDuel has both halves priced at -110, creating some value. You could also wait to bet this live in hopes that the game total drops and/or the Titans are in front.
Pick: Highest Scoring Half — 2nd (-110)
Saints vs. Vikings
By Nick Giffen
Dobbs did an admirable job filling in for Jaren Hall in last week’s game against the Falcons, but he faces a much tougher test against the Saints.
The Saints lead the NFL in interceptions, and it’s not because they’ve been lucky. New Orleans leads the league in Bad Ball Rate (BB%) at a whopping 19.1%, forcing 58 bad balls while facing just 303 pass attempts. That means their expected interceptions are 11.3, so the 12 INTs it has is just a fraction above that.
Meanwhile, Dobbs has actually been quite lucky to avoid interceptions. Over the last two years, he has a BB% of 13.2% thanks to 48 Bad Balls in that timeframe. That means he has 9.4 expected interceptions, but he has thrown just seven.
At 9.4 expected INTs over 11 games played, that’s around 0.85 per game. With an adjustment upward for facing the toughest defense in the NFL in terms of BB%, I’m getting Dobbs at 1.1 INTs on average on 32.5 pass attempts projected. That means fair odds on this are closer to -180.
Pick: Joshua Dobbs Interception (-145)
Lions vs. Chargers
By Nick Giffen
The return of David Montgomery is why I’m guessing this line started so low (it was initially 17.5) and remains low enough at 18.5 that I’m still showing value.
However, Montgomery’s return doesn’t have a major impact on Gibbs’ receiving usage. In three games with and three without Montgomery, Gibbs received 17 and 16 targets, respectively.
Gibbs gets a top-notch matchup against the Chargers, who allow the second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs. Los Angeles struggles both with volume and efficiency in this area.
The Chargers allows the third-most targets to RBs, in large part thanks to their high use of zone coverage. They’re also extremely inefficient when RBs are targeted, ranking 28th in defensive pass DVOA to the position.
I’d rather take the yards than the receptions because Gibbs is capable of topping this with one or two catches, keeping this in play even if he doesn’t crack his 2.5 reception prop.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Jets vs. Raiders
By Billy Ward
There’s a handful of close games on Sunday’s slate, with two other games featuring 1.5-point spreads.
BetMGM isn’t offering this prop on either of the other games: Colts-Patriots and Falcons-Cardinals. DraftKings is, curiously, offering worse prices on the "no" side of those contests despite both games featuring bigger spreads and totals. That makes the “yes” side of the prop more likely, but the pricing is reversed.
Which brings us to Sunday Night Football. Both teams feature broken offenses, ranking 26th (Las Vegas) and 30th (New York) in points per game. They unsurprisingly both rank in the 20s in pace of play in close games – though quicker overall due to plenty of negative game scripts.
That explains the 36.5-point total, easily the lowest on the board for Sunday. The one-point spread is the bigger factor though. Collectively, games with a spread of two or less hit this prop at a 44% rate, which would be true odds of +129.
Of course, this one projects even better than that. The one-point spread is obviously on the lower end of the range for that sample. The minuscule total is also a big factor — games checking in under 40 fail to see three unanswered scores 52% of the time.
It’s hard to come up with an exact number for both scenarios due to the extremely limited sample size, but I’d make this one a slight favorite with some back-of-the-napkin math. This makes the +135 line more than generous.
I’m showing slight value on the other two games mentioned, which both have “no” priced at +130 on DraftKings. The true odds should be closer to +125, but that works out to about a 70% chance of hitting at least one if betting them both, which we’d obviously take at that price. Not enough to qualify as a “best bet,” but I’ll be taking a stab on those, too.
Pick: Either Team to Record 3 Unanswered Scores — No (-110)
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