NFL Predictions Week 13: Data-Driven Picks for A.J. Brown, Mike Evans, More
Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images. Pictured: A.J. Brown.
NFL Predictions Week 13: Data-Driven Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 4:05 p.m. | ||
| 4:25 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Falcons vs. Jets (& Colts vs. Titans)
By Billy Ward
We only have a couple of games that fit the criteria we’re looking for with this prop, but both are excellent examples.
The game between the Falcons and Jets has an absurdly low total of 33.5, making it hard to see either team with three total scores, much less three consecutive. The two-point spread is also a major factor, as scoring should balance between two teams.
The total is low enough that my dataset doesn’t have enough comparable games to come up with a confident projection for this number. However, all games with a total below 40 have historically seen "no" hit more than "yes." This game is way below that mark, with the added benefit of a tight spread.
Colts vs. Titans isn’t quite as great of a spot, as Indianapolis' fast pace (at times) puts a bit of upward pressure on the total. Still, it’s only 41.5. The more important factor is the spread, which couldn’t be much better with the Colts favored by one.
I’d give this one a true price of +110 or so on the "no" side, which is still a solid value at +130.
Pick: Falcons vs. Jets Either Team to Record 3 Unanswered Scores (+125; BetMGM); Colts vs. Titans (+130; DraftKings)
Cardinals vs. Steelers
By Nick Giffen
Pickett’s interception rate is down this year, but that seems to be a product of good fortune than improvement on his part.
Pickett has thrown 39 bad balls this year but has been picked just four times, coming in 3.6 interceptions below expectation. Notably, his turnover-worthy play rate is down, coming in at a low 1.9%, but that’s in part because his fumble rate is much lower than last year, which also factors into TWP%.
Last year, Pickett was picked off on 17.3% of his bad balls. If that rate continued this year he’d be at 6.75 INTs. Even accounting for a slightly shorter aDOT (7.5 vs 7.1) he’s still around two INTs under his personal adjusted INT rate.
The Cardinals have forced a bad-ball rate below league average, but they’ve also made the most of those, picking off
nine in 12 games.
In all, I have Pickett around a coin flip to throw an interception, so getting significant plus-money odds is nice.
Pick: Kenny Pickett Over 0.5 Interceptions (+125)
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Colts vs. Titans
By Nick Giffen
I love getting the hook here, but what I love even more is the pace splits of these teams.
In the first half (prior to the 2-minute warning), the Colts play at a 27.3-second-per-play rate, while Tennessee comes in at 30.7.
In the second half, every possible scenario will speed up the game. When these teams are leading by at least a touchdown, they aren’t appreciably faster in pace than in the first half. And if one team is leading by a TD, the other is trailing, where both pick up the pace considerably.
The Colts are the fourth-fastest second-half team when trailing by at least a touchdown, with plays occurring at a 20.3-second-per-play rate. The Titans are 11th at 23.3.
In the event of a close game, these teams play at a 26.1- and 28.4-second-per-play rate, both notably faster than in the first half.
Yet, somehow, the second-half total is just 20.5 across the board, while some 21.5 and 21s are available for the first half.
I also like the higher scoring half to be the second (+110 at DraftKings).
Pick: First Half Under 21.5 (-112)
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Panthers vs. Buccaneers
By Nick Giffen
This matchup against Carolina should suit Evans well.
Carolina has struggled to prevent big plays, especially on the outside where Evans lines up 72% of the time. On deep balls out wide, the Panthers allow a 50% catch rate, compared to a 40.5% league average. That lines up perfectly with Evans’ aDOT (14.3), as he frequently is tasked with catching deep passes from Baker Mayfield.
Factor in that Chris Godwin may be limited, or even out as he deals with a neck injury, and there’s just too much value here to pass on Evans.
I have this projected closer to +140, with upside for even more if Godwin is limited or out.
Pick: Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown (+160)
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49ers vs. Eagles
By Billy Ward
Brown hasn’t topped 70 yards in three straight games. However, not too long ago he was among the hottest receivers with a crazy streak of six straight games with at least 127 receiving yards.
His high water mark in that span was 175 yards, and four of those five games all finished with at least 130. The top receiver in our weekly projections, Tyreek Hill, is projected with a mean of 102 yards.
Hill’s upside is a bit capped thanks to a likely blowout against the Commanders. One or two big plays could effectively end his day early with the Dolphins favored by nine.
The other two wideouts with shorter odds than Brown – Keenan Allen and Amon-Ra St. Brown – are primarily possession-style receivers with routes closer to the line of scrimmage. Either could get to a big receiving total with volume, but that relies on a lot more going right.
Obviously, Hill is likely to finish the day on top, as he combines both deep balls and plenty of catchable volume. However, the odds for Brown should be a lot closer than they are, so I’ll take a stab at a juicy plus-money line.
Unfortunately, these picks can’t be parlayed, but I’m also interested in the 49ers-Eagles game to be the highest scoring game of the day at +550. The logic is similar, as it relies on Dolphins-Commanders turning into a blowout and limiting the upside of that game.
Pick: A.J. Brown: Most Receiving Yards on Sunday (+1300)
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