NFL Prop Bets: 4 Season Leader Picks for 2020
Getty Images. Pictured: Drew Brees, Josh Jacobs
Instead of betting overs on their season-long prop bets, a better way to invest in a player’s ceiling is by betting season-leader markets.
For example, I really like Calvin Ridley’s upside in Atlanta this season, so earlier this offseason I bet him at +9000 to lead the NFL in receiving yards. His odds are now down to +3300.
Thankfully, I’ve identified four picks still offering value as we head into the final stretch before the season. Let’s dive right in.
NFL Prop Bets: Season Leaders
Most Passing Yards
Drew Brees may no longer have the same arm strength at 41 years old, but he has adapted his playing style to remain an elite quarterback.
His 2.57 Time to Throw rate (per NextGen Stats) was the second-fastest while his 6.7 average depth of target was the fourth lowest. Brees relies on his ability to lead his pass-catchers with pinpoint accuracy on high-percentage throws to fuel his passing yards.
In the 10 full games Brees played in last season, he averaged 294 passing yards (fifth overall). He was able to accomplish that without having a true No. 2 wide receiver and with Alvin Kamara playing at less than 100% for most of the season. Emmanuel Sanders will provide Brees with a true No. 2 WR this season while Kamara should return with 100% health assuming his contract-related training camp absence doesn’t drag on, which will allow Brees to open up the passing game more this season.
I’m projecting Brees for 4,200 passing yards, which ranks fifth among QBs, while his 25-1 odds to lead the league in passing yards rank only 10th overall — it’s why I love betting on his over 3,900 passing yards and for him to lead the league in passing.
PICKS: Drew Brees +2500 (bet to +2000)
Most Rushing Yards
A shoulder injury sidelined Jacobs for three of the final four games of his rookie season — an injury he initially played through, demonstrating his ability and toughness in the process — but his average of 88.5 rushing yards in the 13 games he did play ranked third overall.
Now I’m projecting him for 1,214 rushing yards this season, the third-most.
It remains to be seen how much more involved he’ll become in the passing game in Year 2, but he should once again dominate carries in this backfield. The Raiders had one of the NFL’s best offensive lines in 2019 and return all five starters. Continuity is key when it comes to O-line play, which will only be magnified given the limited offseason.
Jacobs has a ton of upside in this market and is priced at eighth overall.
PICK: Josh Jacobs +1900 (bet to +1700)
Most Receiving Yards
Brown’s yards per catch of 20.5 from a season ago will regress — I’m projecting him closer to 15.5 yards per catch — but his volume should increase substantially. It wasn’t until Week 10 that he began to play 70% of snaps, when he subsequently averaged 88 yards per game over his final seven games — a 1,408-yard pace if extrapolated over 16 games. Now I expect him to play 80% or more when healthy.
If the Titans’ workhorse running back Derrick Henry were to miss any time, this offense would adopt a much heavier passing attack — a situation that work in Brown’s favor.
At 50-1, Brown as the 24th-best odds in this market when I have him projected with the 12th-most receiving yards.
PICK: A.J. Brown +5000 (bet to +4000)
Most Receiving Touchdowns
I’m betting on Kupp’s upside here: I’m projecting him for 6.7 receiving touchdowns, which ranks 15th overall compared to his 25th-best odds.
His 10 receiving touchdowns ranked second in 2019, only one behind league-leader Kenny Golladay.
The Rams have finished in the top-five in rush attempts inside the 5-yard line each of the last two seasons, but now without Todd Gurley, there’s a chance they attempt more passes around the goal line, only elevating Kupp’s ceiling even further.
PICK: Cooper Kupp +4000 (bet to +3500)