Why This Aaron Jones Over Is the NFL Prop To Bet For Titans vs. Packers

Why This Aaron Jones Over Is the NFL Prop To Bet For Titans vs. Packers article feature image
Credit:

Hannah Foslien/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Jones

  • Snow. Double-digit winds. The return of their starting center. No Jamaal Williams.
  • Sean Koerner -- our Director of Predictive Analytics -- explains why he's betting this Aaron Jones over.
  • At 70.5, Koerner projects a 59.2% chance of Jones going over his rushing yardage prop on Sunday Night Football.

NFL Prop Bets

Pick
Bet Now 
Aaron Jones Over 70.5 Rush Yards (-110)
FanDuel

With the NFC’s No. 1 seed on the line, the Packers should lean on Aaron Jones heavily tonight.

There are a few other factors working in Jones’ favor, too:

  • The Packers will likely employ a run-heavy game plan with snow forecasted.
  • They’ll welcome Corey Linsley back, whose 89.8 Pro Football Focus grade ranks first among all center — he should be a boost to their run game.
  • Jamaal Williams is not expected to play, which means A.J. Dillon will back up Jones after the rookie returned only two weeks ago after missing a month due to COVID-19.

The Titans will have their hands full with Aaron Rogers and the passing offense, so it’s not like they can sell out to stop Jones. He’s faced an eight-man box only 19% of the time (30th out of 52) and should be able to break a few big runs.

I would bet this up to 75.5, but here are Jones’ projected chances of going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:

Yards
Over
Under
70.5
59.2%
40.8%
71.5
58.4%
41.6%
72.5
57.6%
42.4%
73.5
56.8%
43.2%
74.5
56.0%
44.0%
75.5
55.2%
44.8%
76.5
54.4%
45.6%

Bet at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet