Why This Aaron Jones Over Is the NFL Prop To Bet For Titans vs. Packers
Hannah Foslien/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Jones
- Snow. Double-digit winds. The return of their starting center. No Jamaal Williams.
- Sean Koerner -- our Director of Predictive Analytics -- explains why he's betting this Aaron Jones over.
- At 70.5, Koerner projects a 59.2% chance of Jones going over his rushing yardage prop on Sunday Night Football.
NFL Prop Bets
With the NFC’s No. 1 seed on the line, the Packers should lean on Aaron Jones heavily tonight.
There are a few other factors working in Jones’ favor, too:
- The Packers will likely employ a run-heavy game plan with snow forecasted.
- They’ll welcome Corey Linsley back, whose 89.8 Pro Football Focus grade ranks first among all center — he should be a boost to their run game.
- Jamaal Williams is not expected to play, which means A.J. Dillon will back up Jones after the rookie returned only two weeks ago after missing a month due to COVID-19.
The Titans will have their hands full with Aaron Rogers and the passing offense, so it’s not like they can sell out to stop Jones. He’s faced an eight-man box only 19% of the time (30th out of 52) and should be able to break a few big runs.
I would bet this up to 75.5, but here are Jones’ projected chances of going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations: