NFL Rookie of the Year Odds for Offensive & Defensive Prospects Ahead of the Draft
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Lawrence
With just over 48 hours before the start of the 2021 NFL Draft, a handful of sportsbooks have started to release odds for the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards.
Placing futures bets without knowledge of where a player will land can be risky, but could offer some upside in light of the unknown. Below, we break down some of the opening odds at DraftKings.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | +200 | 33.3% |
| Mac Jones | +500 | 16.7% |
| Zach Wilson | +700 | 12.5% |
| Justin Fields | +800 | 11.1% |
| Trey Lance | +800 | 11.1% |
| Kyle Pitts | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Jaylen Waddle | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Najee Harris | +1600 | 5.9% |
| DeVonta Smith | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Travis Etienne | +1800 | 5.3% |
| Javonte Williams | +2500 | 3.9% |
| Rashod Bateman | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Elijah Moore | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Trey Sermon | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Kadarius Toney | +5000 | 2.0% |
It should come as no surprise that Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence has the shortest odds for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Lawrence has been penciled in as a potential generational talent and earned the "Tank for Trevor" moniker. He is the heavy favorite to be selected first in the 2021 NFL Draft at -10000 odds (99.01% implied probability) — a pick held by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Next, it's Alabama's Mac Jones — not BYU's Zach Wilson — with the second-shortest odds for OROY at +500 (16.67%). Jones is the favorite to be selected No. 3 overall at -305 odds (75.31%) by the San Francisco 49ers while Wilson is heavily favored to be selected second by the New York Jets at -10000 odds (99.01%). This is likely a factor in these odds, as Jones — or whomever the 49ers eventually pick — will be immediately surrounded by a significantly better coaching staff, offensive line and arsenal of weapons than Wilson will in New York.
Wilson comes in third at +700 odds (12.5%) for OROY, followed by Ohio State's Justin Fields and North Dakota State's Trey Lance, who are tied at +800 odds (11.11%). Fields' draft position over/under currently sits at 7.5 (+120/-150) while Lances' over/under is at 5.5 (-159/+125).
Florida's Kyle Pitts has the highest odds at +1100 (8.33%) for a non-quarterback. The talented tight end has a draft position over/under at 5.5 (+170/-225) and could go as early as fourth overall.
Pitts is followed by LSU receiver Ja'Marr Chase at +1200 (7.69%), Alabama receiver Jaylen Waddle at +1400 (6.67%), Alabama running back Najee Harris at +1600 (5.88%), Alabama receiver Devonta Smith at +1600 (5.88%) and Clemson running back Travis Etienne at +1800 (5.26%).
The previous two OROY winners have been quarterbacks: Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert. Nine of the winners since 2000 have been running backs, nine have been quarterbacks, three have been wide receivers and zero have been tight ends.
Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Micah Parsons | +400 | 20% |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | +700 | 12.5% |
| Kwity Paye | +900 | 10% |
| Jaelan Phillips | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Patrick Surtain II | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Caleb Farley | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Azeez Ojulari | +1300 | 7.1% |
| Zaven Collins | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Jaycee Horn | +1500 | 6.3% |
| Jamin Davis | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Trevon Moehrig-Woodard | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Gregory Rousseau | +2200 | 4.4% |
| Nick Bolton | +2500 | 3.9% |
| Greg Newsome II | +2500 | 3.9% |
| Ronnie Perkins | +2500 | 3.9% |
The opening odds for Defensive Rookie of the Year list Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons as the leader with +400 odds (20%). Parsons was a consensus All-American in 2019 and was a COVID-19 opt-out of the 2020 season. He's projected to be the second defensive player off the board with a position over/under of 13.5 (-103/-122).
Parsons is followed by Notre Dame linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah at +700 (12.5%), another unanimous All-American in 2020. He won the Butkus Award as the top linebacker in his senior year for the Fighting Irish and has a draft position over/under of 19.5 (-112/-112).
Next up are the two of the top edge rushers in this year's draft class: Michigan defensive end Kwity Paye at +900 (10%) and UCLA defensive end Jaelan Phillips at +1000 (9.09%). Paye participated in just four games in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and has a draft position over/under of 19.5 (-112/-112). Phillips is a former five-star recruit and is the top projected edge rusher with a draft position over/under of 18.5 (-112/-112).
Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain II is next on the DROY odds at +1000 (9.09%) and is projected to be the first defensive player off the board with a draft position over/under of 10.5 (+125/-159). Surtain is a former five-star recruit and the son of All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain Sr. Surtain II won the College Football Playoff title as a member of the Crimson Tide and earned SEC Defensive Player of the Year and unanimous All American honors in 2020.
Surtain II is followed by Virginia Tech cornerback Caleb Farley at +1200 (7.69%), Georgia linebacker Azeez Ojulari at +1300 (7.14%), Tulsa linebacker Zaven Collins at +1400 (6.67%), South Carolina cornerback Jaycee Horn at +1500 (6.25%) and Kentucky linebacker Jamin Davis at +1600 (5.88%).
The previous two DROY winners have been defensive ends (Nick Bosa and Chase Young) and 17 of the winners since 2000 have been either a defensive end or linebacker. Just two cornerbacks and two defensive tackles have won the award since 2000.
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