Our NFL Sundays are almost back.
To kick off Week 1, I shared my thoughts — in some capacity — on every Sunday afternoon game (and will have a separate writeup for Bills vs. Ravens on Sunday Night Football), including my four favorite sides, my top total, and how I'm thinking about the rest of the board.
I'll also conclude with a long-shot anytime touchdown parlay, if you're looking to throw some couch change on a fun sweat.
Let's get into my NFL Week 1 picks and predictions for Sunday.
NFL Week 1 Predictions
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NFL Spreads & Moneyline Picks
Prediction: Browns +6
Joe Burrow did get some work in the preseason and comes into the year with a cleaner bill of health than he has had in the past, but there could be something to the slow starts Cincinnati has had (even with Andy Dalton) under Zach Taylor.
While that's up for debate, Burrow's real struggles historically against the Browns' defense are not. The Cleveland rush, led by Myles Garrett, can still generate pressure at an elite level, especially against a questionable Cincinnati offensive line.
Can the secondary (specifically Greg Newsome now on the outside) bounce back after a disappointing 2024 campaign? We shall see. The Bengals will get their points, but the Browns have enough pass-rushing chops to kill enough drives to stay in this as long as their offense can put up some points.
While nobody can be overly excited about the prospects of Cleveland's offense for the 2025 season, the same can be said for the Cincinnati defense, which has question marks all over the board. With Joe Flacco under center and a relatively healthy offensive line, head coach Kevin Stefanski can scheme up a good enough game plan against a porous defense to sustain drives and play keep away from Burrow.
Also, if you're looking for a flier, I played some Harold Fannin anytime touchdown at +500. I expect the hometown kid to be used in a variety of ways with some potentially favorable matchups.
Trending: Joe Burrow is 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in his first two games of the year.
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Prediction: Falcons +2.5
Another home divisional 'dog here.
I just can't get to this number, even with a negligible home-field advantage. (Atlanta is just 11-22 ATS at home since 2021).
To me, there's just not much separating these teams, especially when you consider the fact that Tampa Bay is far from 100% healthy on offense without Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, and arguably the best left tackle in football in Tristan Wirfs. Even tight end Cade Otton isn't at 100%.
Plus, we just don't know how much of a drop-off this group will suffer after losing Liam Coen to Jacksonville. Can they duplicate the same level of success they had on late downs in 2024? I doubt it. Atlanta also might finally have some semblance of a pass rush if they hit in the draft.
It's worth noting that the Falcons also have a potential major blindside tackle problem after losing Kaleb McGary to injury. You can bet your bottom dollar that Todd Bowles is going to bring some exotic pressures off the right edge in an attempt to fluster the inexperienced Michael Penix. However, this offense should still move the ball against a Bucs' defense that really struggled against any offense with a pulse in 2024.
Hey, maybe this game finishes at one or two. I randomly had the thought that it seems like many games have ended by that margin in recent seasons, so I went and checked. It turns out that 15% of Atlanta's games have ended with a final margin of one or two points over the previous three seasons. It's completely meaningless, but I spent time thinking about it, so you have to hear about it. Plus, I can say I called it if it happens.
Trending: Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 23-7 ATS since 2010, including 18-4 ATS since 2012.
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Prediction: Titans +8.5
It's not the most ideal spot in the world with a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road in altitude. However, I can't pass up this number since I'm a tad lower than the market on Denver and higher on Tennessee.
Nobody really knows when it comes to the quarterback position, but I do believe the Titans hit on Cam Ward. Regardless, as long as he doesn't simply pitch the ball to the other team, he should be an upgrade from the Will Levis debacle.
In fairness, all of the blame can't be placed on Levis. The offensive line was an abomination, and that group should be vastly improved after bringing in a pair of free agent veterans (which also allows JC Latham to slide over to his more natural position at right tackle) under a highly respected offensive-line coach. The whole operation should look much smoother.
Additionally, the special teams were historically bad in 2024. While they likely won't be elite, it's almost impossible for them to be any worse after they overhauled that entire group. And defensively, there are enough decent pieces (especially if they can get L'Jarius Sneed back to form at corner) for this to be a league-average unit.
I also still have questions about Bo Nix, and we just don't know if the Broncos' defense will be as dominant as last season. Think about what we thought of the Jets and Browns going into 2024. I'll make Denver prove it can win by two possessions in what should be a lower-scoring affair.
Trending: Week 1 underdogs of more than eight points have gone 24-9 (72.7%) ATS since 2003, covering by over four points per game on average.
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Prediction: Packers Moneyline
I'm simply putting my money where my mouth is regarding coming into the season higher than the market on the Packers (pre-Micah Parsons trade) and lower on the Lions. You can spin multiple trends to make your side sound smarter with both coaches (and Jared Goff, who is 8-0 ATS in season openers) having plenty of success against the number early in the season.
What's more impactful is the potential loss of both coordinators for Detroit. It's been talked about ad nauseam in the offseason, but we still might not be accounting for it enough. There might be a precipitous drop-off in easy button plays for Goff, who also might have to deal with more interior pressure (especially with Parsons now added to the arsenal for Jeff Hafley) with a completely revamped interior offensive line. That's not ideal for the signal caller who certainly thrives a bit more when playing indoors.
I'm a believer in the Packers on both sides of the ball and expect them to make an early-season home statement against a division rival that they lost two competitive games to last year, in large part due to the Lions converting six of seven fourth-down conversions — four of which were touchdowns.
Trending: Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers have gone 15-3 ATS over the first three games of the season since 2019, including a perfect 7-0 ATS at home in Lambeau Field.
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My Favorite Over/Under Pick
Prediction: Raiders-Patriots Over 43.5
The Raiders offense should be significantly improved after adding Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty after a year of poor quarterback play and a rushing attack with the league's lowest yards per rush (3.6). The Patriots' defense is certainly improved from a personnel standpoint, but it is still far from being an elite unit after finishing with a bottom-three DVOA in 2024. While the cornerback room is strong, stud Christian Gonzalez might not suit up due to injury, and the safety room is extremely inexperienced. That spells bad news against Brock Bowers.
New England's offense should also take a major step forward, especially if Drake Maye improves upon a promising rookie campaign in which he had absolutely no help from a protection, scheme or skill position standpoint. The offensive line still has questions with a pair of rookies projected to start on the left side, but the overall talent level has significantly risen. The same can be said for the skill position group and at offensive coordinator with the hiring of Josh McDaniels, who certainly has plenty of familiarity with Raiders defensive coordinator Patrick Graham from their recent time together in Las Vegas. His offense should suit Maye's skill set well.
More importantly, the Raiders' defense profiles as one of the league's worst. Maxx Crosby still can wreck a game, but there's not much else to write home about. The cornerback room looks particularly poor with a projected starting lineup that includes rookie Darien Porter (who played the position one year in college), Packers castoff Eric Stokes and nickel Darnay Holmes, who allowed the sixth-highest catch rate among 126 cornerbacks last year (min. 250 snaps).
I'm assuming the Raiders will sell out to prevent explosive plays and hope that Crosby and company can create havoc, but the Patriots should have no issues sustaining drives.
Keep in mind, 44 has been the most frequent number of total points scored over the past five seasons.
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Other Potential Totals
I always try to be a little hesitant on totals early in the season in the NFL, as we always seem to have new rules (this year it's the kicking balls and kickoffs, which could alter overall field-position variance) and points of emphasis, but these are the ones I had circled:
Prediction: Texans-Rams Under
Houston should have one of the best defenses in the league with a relentless pass rush and an elite secondary, which could spell trouble for a potentially rusty (and one year older) Matthew Stafford.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans upgraded at offensive coordinator and added some weapons on the outside, but the offensive line remains a major area of weakness. As a result, it's hard to envision an efficient rushing attack or reliable pass protection against a relentless Rams pass rush that became the first team in NFL history to have each of its top four sack guys be first- or second-year players in 2024.
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Prediction: 49ers-Seahawks Under
San Francisco has a number of skill-position injuries and should lean on the ground game in what profiles as a slower-paced affair.
Seattle will also likely lean more on its rushing attack under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, especially with pass protection concerns and a less explosive wide receiver room.
I could see two very good scripts to start this game, so I'll hunt for a live under if we get some early touchdowns on the board.
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Prediction: Dolphins-Colts Under
I bet under 47.5 with the thought process of Daniel Jones not having the capability to fully exploit a poor Miami secondary. Additionally, both defensive fronts should have advantages at the line of scrimmage.
However, with the early-season uncertainty and two offensive-minded coaches in a dome, I've started to sour a bit on this position, especially with more optimistic offensive health reports for the Dolphins.
I may end up coming back on the over for some, but I am still monitoring.
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Prediction: Panthers-Jags Over
I had this circled as one of my favorite totals of Week 1 in a matchup of two very suspect defenses. Additionally, Bryce Young really started to come on at the end of last season, and Liam Coen should provide a considerable boost to a Jaguars offense that was so poorly schemed last year.
However, I have become a bit less enthusiastic after some of the recent news out of Carolina. Not only did they trade Adam Thielen and place Jalen Coker on IR, but the Panthers' underrated offensive line might also come into the season opener a bit shorthanded. I also worry a bit about the pace and how much the Jaguars' defense can improve in a new defensive scheme that should fit their personnel.
I'm still mulling this over and may pivot to a Jaguars team total over, wait to bet it live, or pass altogether. However, I did play Trevor Lawrence anytime touchdown at +430 with word on the street that Coen could start using the tush push in short-yardage situations.
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Steelers vs Jets
Prediction: Steelers-Jets Under
It's a scary low total, but it's difficult to envision either offense blowing up in a game that will feel like it's being played in a phone booth. For what it's worth, Mike Tomlin road unders have historically cashed at a hefty rate.
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Remaining Scraps
I'm considering the Giants, but missed the best of the number. I have nothing for Arizona-New Orleans, but I did use the Cardinals in survivor.
Anytime TD Parlay: Lottery Ticket of the Week
- Harold Fannin Jr.
- Trevor Lawrence
- Mark Andrews
Parlay Odds: +6637 (DraftKings)
