NFL Week 10 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Another week in the NFL and all we have to talk about is a whole lot of unders.

From full-game unders to night-game unders to second-half unders, the 2023 first-half of the season has been marked by a lack of scoring.

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.

Welcome to Week 10 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Saturday, Nov. 11, 8p ET.

• NFL unders are now 83-52-1 (61.5%), best through nine weeks since 1991
• Monday Night Football unders are 10-1 in 2023 and 55-28-1 since 2019

This season …
+ Night game unders: 22-7 (62-29 last 2 years)
+ 2H unders: 82-53-1

Christian McCaffrey has a TD in 17 consecutive games, tying an NFL record with Colts RB/WR Lenny Moore, who accomplished the feat in 1963-64.

McCaffrey's odds to score a TD each week this season: -105 (TD No. 10 in streak), -160 (11), -240 (12), -250 (13), -195 (14), -165 (15), -180 (16), -205 (17)
Playoffs: -125 (9), -160 (8), -150 (7)
2022: -205 (6), -165 (5), -140 (4), -130 (3), +100 (2), -150 (1)

The Cowboys are big favorites against the Giants this week — the biggest favorite this season and tied for the third-biggest over the last two years.

Biggest Favorites Last Two Years
17.5 — Cowboys/Texans (2022)
17.5 — Cowboys/Giants (2023)
17 — Giants/Eagles (2022)
16.5 — Chiefs/Rams (2022)

When both teams are on extended rest (8 days or more), the under is 99-47-1 (67.8%) since 2018, including 23-5 this season.

Week 10 matchups that meet this criteria: JAC/SF, BUF/DEN

The Falcons are 2-12-4 on the first-half moneyline, including 2-16 against the first-half spread in their last 18 games.

Their 6-20 1H ATS mark over the last two seasons is the worst in the NFL.

The Giants are 42-17-2 to the under since 2020 – by far the best mark to the under in the NFL in that timeframe.

This will be the 34th night game for the Jets and Giants since 2018. They are a combined 4-29 SU, including 2-25 SU in their last 27 night games.

• Since 2018, the Jets and Giants are 1-15 SU at home in night games.
• Since 2018, the Jets and Giants are 2-14 SU in their last 16 road games at night

The Colts are the only NFL team to score 20 points in every game this season. They’ve scored 20-plus in 10 straight games. The second-longest streak? Jaguars and Browns with five games.

Indy is 8-1 to the team total over, best in the NFL.

Mac Jones is 3-16 SU, 4-15 ATS as an underdog in his career.
Jones is 1-14 ATS in his last 15 starts as a dog.
Over the last 20 years, he is ranked 273rd of 275 QBs as an underdog ATS.
Jones is 1-12 ATS as dog since the start of last season; the rest of NFL is 215-182-10 as a dog in that span.

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• The Panthers are 1-7, the Bears are 2-7. This is the first night game between teams both with a win percentage of less than 25% this late into the season since 2018, when the 49ers faced the Giants – also a 1-7 vs. 2-7 matchup in Week 10, on MNF. The Giants won, 27-23, on road. This would be the worst TNF game, in terms of combined records, since SF-OAK in 2018 – a 1-7 vs. 1-6 matchup.
• Winds Thursday night at Soldier Field are expected to be around 10-12 mph. The under is 15-8 in Chicago since 2018 with 10-plus mph winds.

• Primetime unders are 22-7 this season, 161-102-3 since 2019.
• NFL first-half unders are 85-65-3 in night games since 2021, including 24-17-1 on TNF and 28-17-1 on MNF in that span.
• Thursday home teams are just 27-33 SU, 23-37 ATS since 2020, including 21-33 ATS in night Thursday games (worst of any day of week for home teams at night). Since 2020, Thursday home teams at night 21-33 ATS. All other days of the week, 81-68-3 ATS.
• Bet home teams on Thursday night? Since 2020, they are only 26-28 SU. They are 92-60 SU on all other nights.

• NFL underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 165-109-6 ATS (60%) since 2018 and  28-15-2 ATS this season.
  Week 10 teams that apply: CAR, NYG, LV, MIN, CLE, TEN, GB
• Panthers are 0-4 ATS on the road this season — the most losses without a win ATS on the road this year (DEN is 0-2-1 ATS).
• What a first-half ATS rollercoaster Frank Reich teams have gone through.
  2023 Panthers: 5-3 1H ATS
  2022 Colts: 0-9 1H ATS
  2018-21 Colts: 42-25-1 1H ATS (Reich second-best in NFL)
• Dating back to last season, Reich-coached teams are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
• Reich has been great in night games: 8-5 SU, 10-2-1 ATS. His 10-2-1 ATS mark at night is fourth-best last 20 years among 136 coaches
  Reich is 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS on TNF.
• Reich has coached 10 games in his career on short rest, his teams are 6-4 SU, 8-2 ATS.
  With a cover Thursday, Reich would be 5th-best coach ATS on short rest last 20 years
• Bryce Young is 1-6 SU so far this season. Since 2000, No. 1 overall QB picks are 63-125-2 SU in their first season.
• Reich has usually played to his role in both Carolina and Indy
  As favorite: 30-13-1 SU
  As underdog: 12-29 SU
• When Reich plays a team below .500 SU, he’s 18-8 SU as a favorite and 2-6 SU as an underdog

Under 6-foot-0, Starting QB Rookie Year
2023 Bryce Young 1-6 SU
2020 PJ Walker 1-0 SU
2019 Kyler Murray 5-11 SU
2012 Russell Wilson 11-5 SU
1986 Doug Flutie 1-0 SU
1976 Pat Haden 5-2 SU

Highest Team O/U – Draft QB First Overall in WC Era (since 1990)
1992 Giants/Dave Brown – 9 (Supplemental Draft) (6-10 SU)
2023 Panthers/Bryce Young – 7.5 (1-7 SU)
2016 Rams/Jared Goff – 7.5 (4-12 SU)

• When two defenses that allow 24+ PPG with a total below 50 in November or later face each other, the under is 150-112-6 (57.3%). Week 10: CAR/CHI, NE/IND
• When two bad teams (25% win percentage or less) play each other, the favorite is 142-94-1 SU but 95-136-6 ATS.
• The Bears lost the turnover battle 5-0 to the Saints … and still covered the +9-point spread. Teams to lose the TO battle by 5+ 12-219-1 ATS since 1990 entering last week.
• Since the start of last season, the Bears are 5-21 SU … 2-2 SU at night, 3-19 SU during the day.
• If Justin Fields isn't ready to go for this game, the Bears will once again turn to Tyson Bagent, which would be the 38th time Chicago starts a backup QB over the last decade. The Bears are 10-27 SU, 15-22 ATS in those games, including 2-11 SU, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in the spot dating to 2021.
• The Bears are 20-29-1 ATS vs. non-NFC North divisions since 2019, the third-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Falcons, Raiders.
• The Bears are 6-3 to the over this year (tied for the best "over" mark in the NFL) and 16-10 to the over since start of last season, tops in the NFL.
• Most profitable NFL team to 𝐛𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 …
  • Since 2022: Bears (17-8-1 ATS)
  • Since 2021: Bears (28-14-1 ATS)
  • Since 2020: Bears (37-22-1 ATS)
  • Since 2019: Bears (49-25-2 ATS)
  • Since 2018: Bears (54-37-2 ATS)
• Over the last 20 years, the Bears are 65-82-4 ATS (44.2%) after a SU win. Under Matt Eberflus, they are 0-4 SU/ATS after a win, failing to cover the spread by 6.3 PPG. Chicago is 29-46-1 ATS as a dog after a SU win over the last 20 years.
• Two weeks ago against the Raiders, the Bears won their first home game in more than a year. Now they are going for two in a row at home. Chicago hasn’t won consecutive home games SU in the same season since Oct. 3, 2021
• This is the Bears' 13th night game since 2020 – they are 3-9 SU in that span. In their 18 night games since 2019, they are 6-12 ATS, third-worst in NFL (Bucs, Saints, Bears). The Bears are 2-10 SU in their last 12 night games but won two straight, both on the road, followed by a loss on the road to the Chargers.
• Chicago is 3-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall and they are 2-19 SU in their last 21 games overall.

A few facts and trends from the 43 total international games:
+ The under has a small edge at 23-20.
Wembley: 14-11 to the under
Twickenham: 2-1 to the under
Allianz: 1-0 to the under
Deutsch Bank Park: 1-0 to the under
Azteca: 3-2 to the over
Tottenham: 5-3 to the over
+ Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 32-10-1 straight up and 28-15 against the spread.
Favorites at Tottenham: 3-5 ATS. All other international stadiums: 25-10 ATS.
+ The public has struggled a bit overseas. Teams with 51%-plus of tickets in international games are just 21-21 ATS.
+ Favorites of a FG or more overseas are 25-7-1 SU, 21-12 ATS.

• Teams to see the line move three points or more away from them — Colts opened at +4.5, now sit at -1 — are 18-27-2 ATS this season, 57-87-3 ATS since start of last year and 114-151-4 ATS since 2020. Week 10: DAL, IND, DET, NO. Close: BAL, HOU.
• When two defenses that allow 24+ PPG with a total below 50 in November or later face each other, the under is 150-112-6 (57.3%). Week 10: CAR/CHI, NE/IND.
• Zack Moss is currently second in rushing yards in the NFL.
• Gardner Minshew has played one neutral game in his career – with the Jaguars in 2019 as a 1-point favorite over the Texans. Jags lost, 26-3.
• When Minshew has started five primetime games in his career – at night, international, non-Sunday – his teams are 1-4 SU/ATS. Minshew has lost four straight in this spot.
• The Colts are the only team to score 20 points in every game this season. They’ve scored 20+ in 10 straight games. The second-longest streak? Jaguars and Browns with five games. The Colts are 8-1 to their team total over, best in the NFL.
• Minshew is 4-11 SU, 5-10 ATS in “toss-up” games – a spread of 4 or less.
• The Colts got Jonathan Taylor back in the mix lately, but it hasn’t mattered.
  Colts when Taylor gets 10-plus carries: 22-19-1 SU
  Fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play: 6-12 SU
  Colts are 3-10-1 SU in their last 14 games when Taylor gets double-digit carries.
• Minshew is 3-12 SU in his last 15 starts; he broke a streak of eight consecutive losses SU as a dog against the Ravens earlier this season. He’s 4-11 ATS in his last 15 starts (6-11 ATS since 2020).
• Colts QBs have struggled in the backup role. They are 6-17 SU (11-12 ATS) since 2017.
• When Minshew’s opponent scores more than 20 points, he is 1-16 SU.
• Minshew is 7-11 SU when he throws 2-plus passing TDs in a game in his career.
• Minshew’s teams are just 1-6 SU after a SU win in his last seven attempts at a winning streak. It’s been 16 starts since Minshew won two in a row.

• The Patriots are 3-12 SU, 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
• The Patriots have struggled vs. the best and done well against some of the bad teams.
  Since 2019, they are 16-23 SU, 14-23-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, second-worst ATS mark in the NFL, just ahead of the Bears.
  Since 2019, they are 19-7 SU, 16-10 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, including 10-7 ATS since 2020.
  In that same span, they are 10-21-1 ATS vs. teams who made the playoffs the previous season, third-worst mark in the NFL (SEA, CHI). When the Patriots face a team that didn’t make the playoffs, they are 24-20-1 ATS in that span.
  Jones is 12-10 SU vs. teams that failed to make the playoffs the previous season and 6-13 SU vs. teams that did.
• Teams with a negative SU point differential, that are over .500 ATS later in the season, are 142-118-6 ATS since 2015. Week 10: NE, GB, TEN, HOU, LV.

Mac Jones

• Jones is 3-16 SU, 4-15 ATS as an underdog in his career.
  He is 1-14 ATS in his last 15 starts as a dog.
  Over the last 20 years, Jones is ranked 273rd of 275 QBs as an underdog ATS.
  Jones is 1-12 ATS as dog since start of last season – rest of NFL is 215-182-10 as a dog in that span.
• This is Jones’ first neutral-field start of his career.
  Jones has started 10 night games and one Saturday day “island game,” so this will be his 12th “primetime” start with the Patriots. He is 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS in those games.
• Jones has lost seven straight starts SU vs. non-divisional opponents. He is 3-10 SU since start of last season – a loss would make him the worst of 72 QBs.
• Jones is 1-15 SU when opponents score more than 24 points. He is 17-8 SU when his defense allows 24 points or less. When his offense scores 21 points or less, NE is 4-17 SU.
• Jones is 16-24-1 ATS career – the least-profitable QB over the last 20 years under Bill Belichick.
  He is 5-0 ATS vs. the Jets and Zack Wilson. He’s 11-24-1 ATS vs. all other QBs.
  He is 0-6 ATS vs. the Dolphins. He’s 16-18-1 ATS vs. all other teams.
  He is 12-9-1 ATS as a favorite, 4-15 ATS as an underdog.
• Two weeks ago was Jones' 15th career game with two or more passing TDs. NE is 6-9 SU in those games.
• Jones is tied for the NFL lead in INTs with 9. Current leaders and their preseason odds for most INTs in 2023: Mac Jones (+3000), Josh Allen (+1000), Sam Howell (+1800), Garoppolo (+3000)
• Jones is 6-of-30 from 20-plus yards downfield this season; his 20% completion rate is lowest for any QB in the NFL with minimum 200 pass attempts (27 QBs).
• Jones is 8-10 ATS off a SU win. He’s lost four straight ATS in this spot and is 2-8 ATS in his last 10. Here is how he’s done off a SU win:
  -6-3 ATS as a favorite
  -2-7 ATS as a underdog

Bill Belichick

• Since Tom Brady left New England in 2020, Belichick and Patriots are 27-33 SU, 26-33-1 ATS. Belichick without Brady: 45-52 SU with NE, 37-45 SU with CLE, for a combined 82-97 SU mark.
• Since 2010, the Patriots are 9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS vs. the Colts. Belichick is 17-7 SU, 14-8-2 ATS in his career with Patriots vs. Colts.
• Since 2021, Belichick is 4-17 SU as an underdog (16-7 SU as a favorite). Between 2003-15, he was 25-22 SU as an underdog.

• This is just the second division game since 2014 where both teams are coming off games in which they each allowed fewer than 10 points and 200 passing yards. The other: 2017 MIN-CHI, 23-10 final. That 2017 CHI-MIN matchup, also last game between two teams allowing a field goal or less in their previous game.

• Deshaun Watson is 0-2 SU/ATS vs. Lamar Jackson – failing to cover the spread by 19.8 PPG.
• Watson is 3-12 SU as a dog in his last 15 starts.
• Watson is 3-2 ATS this season. He hasn’t finished above .500 ATS since his rookie year (2017).
• Watson is 19-18-2 ATS in his career vs. teams .500 SU or worse, and 12-12-1 ATS vs. sub-.500 SU teams.
• If Watson starts in Week 9, he’ll be coming off a decent layoff since his injury. Here is how he has performed based on rest:
  Short rest: 11-1 SU, 7-3-2 ATS
  Normal rest: 17-19 SU, 16-20 ATS
  Extended rest: 7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS
• Kevin Stefanski with Browns:
  Favorite: 22-10 SU, 12-20 ATS
  Dog: 9-18 SU, 15-11-1 ATS
• The Browns are 13-12-1 ATS after a loss under Stefanski.
  Cleveland is 10-19 SU, 11-18 ATS after a SU win under Stefanski
  Cleveland is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after a SU win.
• After a SU loss, Stefanski has been a favorite of 6 or more points in six games. The Browns are 2-5 ATS in those games.
• The Browns are 10-11 SU, 6-15 ATS vs. AFC North under Stefanski.
  Of 145 head coaches in the last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the least-profitable coach.
  Stefanski is 21-16-1 ATS against non-AFC North teams.
• Watson has faced the AFC North with Cleveland five times. Browns are 2-0 SU/ATS at home and 0-3 SU/ATS on the road.
• Watson off a SU win: 16-18 SU, 14-19-1 ATS
• Watson has struggled vs. good teams lately. His teams are 1-10 SU in his last 11 starts vs. teams above .500 SU on the season. He is 1-1 SU with the Browns in this spot.

• The Ravens are 7-0-2 on the first-quarter moneyline this season.
• Lowest game totals of Lamar Jackson’s career:
  38.5, 2023 at PIT (17-10)
  38.5, 2023 at CLE (28-3)
• Jackson is 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS vs. Browns. He’s 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS vs. Browns at home.
• Jackson has done well vs. good defenses. The Ravens are 6-2 SU/ATS with Jackson vs. teams allowing 17 PPG or less on the season.
• Jackson is hard to beat when he’s on a roll. When he’s on a win streak of four-plus games, the Ravens are 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS.
• Baltimore's defense has been juggernaut at home recently.
  Points allowed at home last 10 games: 3, 6, 16, 22 (Minshew), 9, 16, 9, 3, 20, 17
  Baltimore has allowed three TDs in five home games this season.
• John Harbaugh has struggled after a great defensive performance.
  After allowing 3 points or less: 3-9-1 ATS
  After allowing 6 points or less: 6-14-2 ATS
  After allowing 3 points or less: 17-24-3 ATS
  After allowing 13 points or less: 36-47-3 ATS
• Harbaugh is 21 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and three games under .500 ATS as a favorite.
• Harbaugh is 153-108-9 1H ATS with $100 bettor up $3,709, most of any coach in NFL since 2005.
  With Jackson and Joe Flacco, Harbaugh is 141-101-9 1H ATS.
• Over the past three seasons, Jackson is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog but 10-17 ATS as a favorite, including 4-14 ATS when favored by more than 3 points.
• Jackson is 15-5 SU, 10-10 ATS vs. AFC North. He's 7-2 ATS on the road, 3-8 ATS at home.
• Jackson is 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or as an underdog. In all other spots, he is 20-29 ATS in his career.
• Jackson covers the 1H spread on the road/neutral with regularity: 26-10-1 1H ATS and 19-17-1 1H ATS at home.
  Between 2021-23, he’s 17-15-1 1H ATS. From 2018-20, he was 28-12-1 1H ATS.
• Jackson is 25-9 SU and 13-21 ATS as a home favorite. Of 212 QBs over the last 20 years, he is ranked 203rd ATS as a home favorite. He’s just 10-16 ATS playing a home game at 1 p.m. ET
• Watch out when Baltimore gets the run game going.
  They ran for 298 yards on 41 carries and three TDs last week.
  When they run for 200-plus tards under Harbaugh, they are 21-9 SU in their next game. When the eclipse 250, they are 9-1 SU in their next game.

• CJ Stroud is 4-4 SU in his rookie season. QBs out of Ohio State are a combined 47-97 SU in the NFL (10 total QBs). The most wins SU in a single season by any of those QBs is five by Kent Graham, done twice.
  With a win, Stroud would be over .500 SU. Only one other OSU QB is over .500 SU for his NFL career: Craig Krenzel 3-2.
• Stroud has been incredible. He has 14 passing touchdowns and more than 2,200 passing yards. He is the third QB to do that in his first eight NFL starts (Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert).
• The Texans have four SU wins this season, matching their most in the last four seasons.
  Houston has won four games or less SU three straight years (2020-22). The last team to do it four straight years: 1972-75 Bears.
• Tough beat for Texans bettors last week. Stroud threw five passing TDs and they didn’t cover the 2.5.
  Teams with 5-plus passing TDs going into last week were 102-13 SU, 93-16-6 ATS over the last 20 years — an 85% cover rate.
• Stroud has had a near turnover-free start to his career. His 279 pass attempts is the most by a QB in his first eight career starts with one of INTs fewer, and his Y/A of 8.1 is second on that list behind Cam Newton.
• Most QB pass attempts this season, 1 INT or fewer:
  Stroud – 279 attempts
  Giants' Tyrod Taylor – 87 attempts
  Colts' Anthony Richardson – 84 attempts
• In his eight starts,  Stroud is 4-1 ATS as an underdog and 0-3 ATS as a favorite.
  He’s excelled in the first half, going 5-3 1H ATS this season.
  In the 1H, Stroud is 5-0 ATS as a dog, 0-3 ATS as a favorite.
• Teams with a negative SU point differential, and are over .500 ATS over all this deep into the season, are 142-118-6 ATS since 2015. Week 10: NE, GB, TEN, HOU, LV.

• The Bengals, who have allowed 20 or fewer points in four straight games, are in the tough spot this week:
  Teams who are over .500 SU and allow 20 or fewer points in four straight games and are listed as a favorite, are 125-154-7 ATS (44.8%).
• Burrow is 28-18-1 to the under in the last three seasons, the third-most profitable QB (out of 94) to the under in the NFL.
• Burrow is 23-9 SU as a favorite in his career. He is 16-4 SU as a favorite in his last 20 starts.
• Burrow has 10 TDs, 2 INTs in the Bengals' current four-game winning streak, and in that span he leads all QBs in success rate, is second in completion % and fifth in EPA/play.
  Cincinnati is going for five straight covers this week.
• Burrow prefers the road to home when it comes to covering the number.
  Road/Neutral: 21-10 ATS
  Home: 15-10-1 ATS
• In Burrow’s career, he is 37-19-1 (67%) against the second-half spread in his career.
  Best 2H ATS mark in the NFL since he was drafted.
• Burrow is 9-9 ATS vs. AFC North and 27-11-1 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents.
• Burrow is 20-4 SU and 20-3-1 ATS in his last 24 games vs. non-divisional opponents.
• Burrow is 36-20-1 ATS (63.16%) in his career – seventh-most profitable entering 2023, last 20 years: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Alex Smith, Burrow
  Highest QB ATS win percentage last 20 years (min. 25 starts): Bridgewater, Shaun Hill, Burrow
  Highest QB ATS win percentage last 20 years after Week 1 (min. 50 starts): Bridgewater, Burrow, Andrew Luck
• Burrow is 23-9 SU as a favorite. As a favorite, he is 12-3 SU last 15.
• The Texans sack opposing QBs on 3.1% of snaps. Burrow has been good vs. good sack teams.
  3% or higher sack rate: 22-11 ATS
• Burrow has faced a team coming off a SU win 23 times in his career. He is 17-6 SU and 18-5 ATS in those games.
  Top QBs in this spot ATS last 20 years: Brees, Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Burrow

• When two teams are off 14-plus days rest – a bye – last 20 years, the favorite is 31-22 SU, but with no home/road advantage, 19-19 split.
• Some wind is expected for this Jaguars home game.
  Since 2018, the Jaguars at home are 10-3 to the under with 10+ mph winds.
  Brock Purdy has played two games in 10+ mph winds; the 49ers have failed to score 20 points in either game.

• Expect a low scoring game? When both teams are on extended rest, the under is 99-47-1 (67.8%) since 2018, including 23-5 so far this season.
• The 49ers are the third team in the last 20 years to lose three straight games, but have a win percentage of 60% or higher in their ninth game or earlier.
  2016 Vikings – lost by 6 on road
  2009 Giants – lost by 1 at home
• Rest helps the losing. Teams on extended rest (8-plus days) are 132-103-4 ATS on losing streaks of thre-plus games in the last 20 years.
• Teams to travel from PST to EST have had 1H success, going 105-65-3 1H ATS since 2017.
• First the Browns, then the Vikings, now the Bengals. The 49ers have suffered three straight regular-season losses. Dating back to last season, they are 7-3 SU/ATS coming off a loss.
  When Kyle Shanahan is a favorite off a loss, he’s only 9-9 SU.
• The 49ers fall to 0-38 under Shanahan when trailing by 8-plus points in fourth quarter in the regular season or playoffs. The Niners have lost 39 straight overall in that scenario. Only Carolina has a longer streak at 46 straight
• Purdy in October: 25-12 SU at Iowa State and 9-4 SU with the 49ers (34-16 SU).
• Purdy is 8-1 ATS at home, just 2-5 ATS on the road.
• The 49ers had scored 30-plus points in eight straight regular season games, the longest such streak for an NFC team since the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams in 1999-2000 (14). That was before managing just 17 in each of their last three games: vs. Cleveland, Minnesota and Cincinnati.
  Kyle Shanahan is 7-2 ATS after scoring 17 or less in back-to-back games.
  After scoring 17 points or less in three straight games, teams favored in their next game are 62-81-3 ATS over the last 20 years.
• In games Christian McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 17-4 SU, 14-7 ATS.
  McCaffrey has a TD in 17 consecutive games, tied for most in NFL history with Hall of Fame WR/RB Lenny Moore.
  McCaffrey odds to score a TD in each game this season: -105, -160, -240, -250, -195, -165, -180, -205.
• The most-profitable 49ers QB ATS over the last 20 years: Jimmy Garoppolo 35-25-1, Shaun Hill 12-4, Purdy 10-4.
• The 49ers are 29-19 ATS over the last three seasons – fourth-most profitable team in the NFL (DET, CIN, DAL, SF).

• The Jaguars are on a franchise-changing run, winning and covering five in a row.
  The Jaguars franchise has existed since 1995. They’ve never won and covered the spread in five straight games until now.
  The Jaguars haven't covered six straight games since 2010, and they last covered seven straight in 2007.
• Jacksonville is 6-2 SU through eight games this season, the team's best start since 1999.
  Best Jaguars SU Starts
  1999 – 7-1
  2023 – 6-2
  1998 – 6-2
• The Jaguars and Lions are in good spots. Good teams on long rest tend to win. Teams with winning percentages of 75-plus, coming off a bye are 132-81-1 SU (62%) last 20 years.
  111-58-1 SU as a favorite
  20-23 SU as an underdog
• The Jaguars are coming off a bye to face the 49ers.
  Lawrence has played five career games on extended rest (8-plus days): 3-2 SU/ATS, but he’s won and covered three in a row dating to the start of last season.
  Including Week 1 performances, Lawrence is 4-4 SU/ATS on extended rest in the pros.
• Doug Pederson has had success on extended rest/prep, too.
  He’s 15-8 SU, 14-9 ATS on extended rest and 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS in Week 1s, for a combined 20-10 SU, 18-12 ATS in his career.
• The Jaguars are 8-16 SU off a loss under Lawrence. They are 9-7 SU off of a win.
  Lawrence is 9-15 ATS career off a loss and 10-6 ATS off a SU win.
• When it comes to covering the number, Lawrence likes facing good teams. The Jaguars have covered nine straight games vs. teams above .500 SU. Over the last two seasons, Lawrence is 9-3 ATS in this spot.
• Lawrence is 13-19 SU as an underdog in his career, but 10-7 SU since the start of last season (3-12 SU as a dog in his rookie year).
• Lawrence has been made into a different QB under Pederson:
  with Pederson: 16-11 SU/ATS
  with Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer: 3-14 SU, 5-12 ATS
• Lawrence is 21-23 against the 1H spread in his career, but this season has been a turnaround for him. He is an NFL-best 7-1 1H ATS this season.
• Lawrence is 17-9-1 against the second-half spread since the start of last season – the second-most profitable 2H ATS QB in the NFL behind Burrow.
• Looking for a Lawrence anytime TD? He’s scored in just six of 44 career games – his last coming in December of last year.
• Lawrence is 26-18 to the under in the last three seasons, the seventh-most profitable QB to the under in the NFL (out of 78) behind Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones, Burrow, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill and Derek Carr.
• Lawrence on the moneyline as an underdog:
  Home: 7-6 SU
  Road/Neutral: 6-13 SU (4-1 SU in last five)
• Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite.
  Underdog: 32-23 ATS (7-1 ATS last 8 games)
  Favorite: 27-31 ATS

• Saints opened as an underdog and are now the favorites. Those such teams are 45-84 ATS since 2019 and 9-12 ATS this season.
  Week 10: DET, NO, TB, IND
• Teams to see line move three points or more away from them — ex. -3 to -6 — are 18-27-2 ATS this season.
  57-87-3 ATS since start of last year
  114-151-4 ATS since 2020
  Week 10: DAL, IND, DET, NO. Close: BAL, HOU
• After 12 straight unders going back to last season, the Saints went over in consecutive games, then went under last week.
  They are 7-2 to the under this year, 13-2 last 15, 16-3 in last 19 and 28-15 since start of 2021 season.
• Road Warriors. Here is the Saints' ML record over the past few seasons, home vs. road.
  Last 3: Home: 8-11 SU | Road: 12-10 SU
  Last 5: Home: 21-17 SU | Road: 25-13 SU
• Saints, Falcons have a bye next week. Teams with a bye coming up are 12-6 SU, 12-6 ATS this season, with the under 15-3 in those games (when facing teams NOT with a bye coming up). Teams before a bye, facing a team not before a bye, are 158-116-1 SU (57.7%), 157-115-3 ATS (57.7%) since 2013. Week 10: NO, ATL
• Carr is 8-25-2 ATS when favored by three points or more, including 1-13-1 ATS in his last 15 games in this spot. Since 2021, he’s 1-10-1 ATS in this spot.
• Saints were +2.5 on lookahead. Now -2.5/-3. Derek Carr is 19-35-2 ATS (35.2%) when line moves in his direction (ex. -3 to -4). 214th of 215 QBs last 20 years ATS. He’s 1-6-1 ATS in this spot with Saints.
• Carr covers vs. good defenses and tends to lose ATS vs. bad defenses. Based on how many PPG opposing defenses give up against Carr:
  Fewer than 21 PPG: 31-21 ATS
  21 PPG or more: 33-54-3 ATS
• Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime now for the fifth time in his career, and he is still struggling to cover the spread: 26-34-2 ATS in those previous four seasons and 2-6-1 ATS in 2023 with the Saints.
  15: 8-8 ATS, 17: 5-8-2 ATS, 18: 6-10 ATS, 22: 7-8 ATS, 23: 2-6-1 ATS
• The Saints are definitely going to be favored over the Bears, which isn’t a good thing for Carr.
  Favorite: 18-35-2 ATS (worst of all QBs last 20 years)
  Underdog: 52-44-1 ATS
• Carr was 17-29-2 ATS as a favorite with the Raiders, with a $100 bettor down $1,286. Now with the Saints, he is 1-6-1 ATS as a favorite.
  Carr hasn’t had a year above .500 ATS as a favorite since 2016.
• Carr is 22-34-2 ATS on the road/neutral since 2017, the least-profitable road QB ATS in that span (123 of 123 QBs). He’s 22-24-1 ATS at home in that span.
• Allen-coached teams are just 13-20-1 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU on the season.
• Allen-coached teams are just 4-11-1 ATS vs. teams over .500 SU on the season. He is under .500 ATS in this spot in all five of his seasons as a head coach.
• In his career, Allen is 20-42 SU. His 32.3% win percentage is eighth-worst among all head coaches in the Wild Card era.
• Allen is a bit better with some prep:
  Short rest: 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS
  Normal rest: 10-26 SU, 12-24 ATS
  Extended rest + Week 1: 9-8 SU, 9-6-2 ATS
  He’s 11-34 SU, 14-31 ATS on short or normal rest as a head coach.
• Allen is 23-37-2 ATS in his career as a coach.
  His 23-37-2 ATS mark is third-worst for any coach over the last 20 years (Jon Gruden, Mike Shanahan).
• Allen-coached teams are just 3-14-2 ATS coming off a SU win.
  Last 20 years, he’s ranked 138th out of 142 coaches ATS coming off a win.
• In games where Carr is a favorite or a small underdog, his teams have struggled:
  As favorite or underdog of three or less: 36-50-3 ATS
  Dog of more than three points: 34-29 ATS

• The Vikings are 8-0-1 to the first-quarter under this season.
• Kirk Cousins is now in Minnesota’s past and Josh Dobbs is the quarterback of the now.
  Even after last week, the Vikings’ 20 passing TDs is tied with Miami for most in the NFL and their passing yards is second in the league, too.
• With Cousins out, Minnesota will continue to go to a backup QB.
  Since 2015, only three backup QBs have started for Minnesota: Jaren Hall, Sean Mannion and Case Keenum. They are 13-6 SU, 12-7 ATS in 19 games filling in for the Vikings. Now it’s Dobbs’ turn to start for Minnesota.
• Under Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings are 3-6 ATS as underdogs, but their three wins came SU and as dogs of 6 or more.
  Overall, the Vikings are failing to cover by 6 PPG as dogs under O’Connell.
• The Vikings got their second rushing TD of the year last week. With two now, they are tied with the Panthers for second-fewest in the NFL, ahead of only the Broncos.
• The Vikings are 7-2 to the under this season, tied for third in the NFL with the Saints, Chiefs and Raiders.
• O’Connell by time of day:
  1 p.m. ET or earlier: 9-8-1 ATS
  2 p.m. ET or later: 3-6 ATS
• O’Connell off win/loss
  Loss: 4-4 ATS
  Win: 7-9-1 ATS

• It is smart to fade bad teams off a recent win. Teams 1-4 SU in their last five games and coming off a win are 79-135-1 SU (36.9%) last 20 years.
• "Bet dogs in low total games." NFL underdogs in games with total below 42 are 165-109-6 ATS (60%) since 2018 and 28-15-2 ATS this season.
  Week 10 match: CAR, NYG, LV, MIN, CLE, TEN, GB
• The Packers went 5-6 SU as favorites under LaFleur last season. Week 9 was their first game as a favorite this year.
  Between 2019-21, the Packers were 33-9 SU as a favorite under Matt LaFleur.
  Prior to this season, the Packers hadn't been underdogs in their first seven games since 1980.
  The Packers were last underdogs in their first eight games back in 1953 (dogs in first 10 games).
• Offensive problems in Green Bay:
  29th in completion percentage, 24th in yards/pass attempt, 22nd in passer rating
  Love’s 59.6% completion percentage is second-worst in the NFL, ahead of only Zach Wilson.
• LaFleur is 46-33 ATS in his career as Packers coach.
• LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 16-9 ATS as a 'dog — 12-5 with Aaron Rodgers and 4-4 with Love. As a favorite, LaFleur is 30-24 ATS.
• Love has been streaky as an NFL QB:
  Started 4-0 ATS, 1-4 ATS since.
  He has closed as a favorite just once in his nine career starts.
• Love doesn’t play well vs. good sack teams. The Steeelers have 4.1% of their defensive snaps end in a sack.
  More than 2%: 2-4 ATS
  2% or less: 2-0 ATS
• Of the 27 QBs with 200+ passing attempts this season, Love’s 9.1 air yards/attempt is highest.

• The Steelers have allowed 20 or fewer points in four straight games, which puts them in a tough spot this week:
  Teams who are over .500 SU and allow 20 or fewer points in four straight games and are listed as a favorite are 125-154-7 ATS (44.8%).
• Steelers under Mike Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger: 35-22-3 ATS.
  Steelers under Tomlin without Big Ben or Kenny Pickett: 22-15-3 ATS.
• Steelers are 30-45-1 1H ATS last five seasons under Tomlin, making him worst among coaches 1H ATS in that span.
• This is the second of back-to-back homes games for the Steelers. Under Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 28-17-2 ATS playing on a homestand (two-plus consecutive home games) – best of any head coach in the last 20 years.
• When the Steelers open -3 or smaller, or as an underdog, they are 25-12-4 ATS under Tomlin at home and 73-44-5 ATS overall.
• When the Steelers close -3 or smaller, or as an underdog, they are 86-56-6 ATS under Tomlin, including 34-18-4 ATS at home.
• The Steelers have played 43 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense — the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest streak since the Rams' in 2014-17 (46 games). They are the sixth team in the last 20 years with this long of a streak.
• Over the last two seasons, the Steelers are 13-5 SU/ATS with T.J. Watt, 1-6 SU without him (2-4-1 ATS).
• Since Watt’s first game in 2017, the Steelers are 65-42-2 SU, 57-50-2 ATS.
  They’ve played without him just 11 times and are 1-10 SU, 4-6-1 ATS in those games.
  With him: 64-32-2 SU, 53-44-1 ATS.
• Off extended rest during the regular season, Pickett is 4-0 SU/ATS in his pro career, covering the spread by 7.3 PPG.
  Pickett is 1 of 3 QBs 5-0 or better ATS on extended rest over the last 20 years (Kellen Clemens, Seneca Wallace).
• Rest has been good for Tomlin. On extended prep, the Steelers are 14-6-1 ATS since 2018, making him the best coach in the NFL ATS in that span.
• Tomlin has had success vs. NFC in his career.
  He’s been .500 SU or better every season in his career.
  Tomlin is 45-24-1 SU, 39-31 ATS vs. NFC.
  The Steelers are 25-8-1 SU vs. NFC at home under Tomlin.

• The Titans are in Florida in back-to-back weeks facing the Bucs, then next week against the Jaguars.
  Teams facing either the Bucs, Jags or Dolphins on the second leg or later of a road trip are 91-50-5 ATS last 20 years.
• Teams playing on the road off a loss are 280-242-13 ATS since 2019. 27-24-2 ATS this year. Business trip bet.
  Week 10: CAR, TEN, SF, NYJ, ATL, NYG
• "Bet dogs in low total games." NFL underdogs in games with total below 42 are 165-109-6 ATS (60%) since 2018 and 28-15-2 ATS this season.
  Week 10 match: CAR, NYG, LV, MIN, CLE, TEN, GB
• Titans have officially moved from Ryan Tannehill to Will Levis, moving Tannehill to the backup slot.
• In games with a spread of 3 or less, Mike Vrabel is 21-17 SU, 19-17-2 ATS, including 4-2 ATS in that spot this season.
• The Titans have now gone 27 straight games without scoring 30 points.
  Longest active streak in the NFL and longest streak in franchise history
  NYG streak of 43 straight games was the last one broken this high in 2022.
• Vrabel as an underdog: 25-25 SU, 29-20-1 ATS, including 25-14-1 ATS when the spread is +3 or higher.
  Minimum 20 games as an underdog, only Vrabel, LaFleur, Tomlin and Bill Cowher are at or over .500 SU as an underdog in the Wild Card era.
  In six seasons with the Titans, Vrabel has never finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog (4-3 ATS this season).
• Vrabel is 37-27 SU in September, October and November in his career (16-15 SU in December and beyond).
• The Titans have struggled recently under Vrabel on extended rest (eight-plus days), losing four of their last six games SU.
  Vrabel has coached seven games off a bye (12-plus days) and is is 5-2 SU/ATS in those games.
  Most-profitable coaches ATS off bye (12-plus days) last 20 years:

1. Mike McCarthy: 13-6-1, 2. Belichick: 22-17-1, 3. Vrabel: 6-1

• Vrabel is 12-9-1 ATS as an underdog off of a SU loss. He’s covered three of his last four games in this spot.

• The Bucs opened as an underdog and are now the favorites. Such teams are 45-84 ATS since 2019 and 9-12 ATS this season.
  Week 10: DET, NO, TB, IND
• The Bucs have lost four consecutive games straight up — Todd Bowles’ longest SU losing streak since 2018 with the Jets.
  Bowles tends to let losing streaks continue. After a loss, he’s 18-33 SU in his next game, ranked 140th of 147 coaches last 20 years.
• Teams off four-plus straight losses that see the line move in their direction in the next game are 41-51-4 ATS since 2016.
  Week 10: ARI, TB
• The Bucs are 16-9-1 ATS over the last two season, tied with the Patriots and Saints for second-best mark in the NFL, behind just the Bears.
• Baker Mayfield is 34-44-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,166 (271st of 281 QBs in the last 20 years).
  Mayfield is 22-20 ATS as an underdog and 12-24-1 ATS as a favorite.
• Bowles' teams have struggled mightily off of a loss. He is 18-33 SU, 20-29-2 ATS in that spot, including 3-9-1 ATS with the Bucs.
• Bowles has one of the worst records in the NFL as an underdog:
  He is 14-40 SU, 22-29-3 ATS as an underdog (23-15 SU as a favorite)
  His 22-29-3 ATS mark ranks 140th out of 147 coaches in the last 20 years and is worst among all active head coaches.
• Mayfield is 13-22-1 ATS at home in his career. He’s never finished a season above .500 ATS at home, ranking 110th out of 112 QBs since he entered the league.
• Mayfield has been an under machine since start of last year, 13-5 in that span including five straight unders until the Texans game
• The Bucs opened as the underdog and are now a slight favorite at home against the Titans. Bowles is 16-38 SU as a coach when his team opens as an underdog.
• As an underdog, Bowles is 14-40 SU and 12-38 over the last five seasons.
  2022: 3-9
  2021: 4-11
  2020: 3-10
  2019: 0-4
  2018: 2-4

• Falcons are 0-6-3 on the first-half moneyline this season, the only winless team in the NFL.
• Teams playing on the road off a loss are 280-242-13 ATS since 2019. 27-24-2 ATS this year. Business trip bet.
  Week 10: CAR, TEN, SF, NYJ, ATL, NYG
• Falcons are 18-30-1 ATS vs. non-AFC South divisions since 2019, the worst mark in the NFL.
• Saints, Falcons have a bye next week. Teams with a bye coming up are 12-6 SU, 12-6 ATS this season, with the under 15-3 in those games (when facing teams NOT with a bye coming up). Teams before a bye, facing a team not before a bye, are 158-116-1 SU (57.7%), 157-115-3 ATS (57.7%) since 2013. Week 10: NO, ATL
• Falcons have struggled ATS recently:
  They are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games overall dating back to last season.
  1-7 ATS last eight games.
• Falcons are 11-12 ATS after a SU loss under Arthur Smith. An average team. After a win, not so much.
  Falcons are 4-13 SU, 4-12-1 ATS after a SU win under Smith.
  His 4-12-1 ATS mark ranks 134th out of 142 head coaches in the last 20 years.
• Arthur Smith:
  September-October: 11-12 ATS
  November on: 6-13-1 ATS
  Smith is 6-4 ATS in first four games of the season – his teams are 11-19-1 ATS in Game 5 forward.
• The Falcons continue their journey having played zero games this season with a positive rest differential vs. their opponent.
  They played on the road before their game in London (Weeks 3-4); they lost at Detroit.
  7 of their last 11 games on the road – they are 1-2 SU in this stretch.
  3 of last 4 games are on the road.
• The Falcons are 2-12-4 1H ML, 2-16 1H ATS in their last 18 games.
  Their 6-20 1H ATS last two seasons ranks last in the NFL
• Taylor Heinicke is 5-2-1 SU as a favorite and 7-12 SU as an underdog. Profitable on the ML in both spots.
• Heinicke is 6-11-1 SU vs. teams .500 SU or better on the season, losing those games by 5.94 PPG.

• The Cardinals allowed seven sacks last week to Cleveland. Teams that allow seven-plus in their previous game are 89-115-5 ATS last 20 years (43.6%).
  Week 10: NYG, NYJ, ARI
• Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 84-55-1 ATS (60.4%) since 2020.
  Week 10: NYG, ARI, SEA
• Seahawks are coming off a tough offensive performance with fewer than 200 passing yards in a 37-3 loss at Baltimore. Teams to have fewer than 200 total yards and score 3 or fewer points are 103-80-2 ATS in their next game.
  Week 10: SEA, ARI
  Teams to score 3 or fewer points in their previous game and are listed as underdogs are 123-88-7 ATS last 20 years.
• Teams coming off four-plus consecutive losses and see the line move in their next game in their direction are 41-51-4 ATS since 2016.
  Week 10: ARI, TB
• Since Kyler Murray arrived in Arizona, he is 25-32-1 SU. All other QBs are 4-13 SU.
• The losing could continue for the Cardinals. Teams to won six games or fewer in the previous season and are on a losing streak of five or more games are 66-158-1 SU (29.5%) in the last 20 years.
• The Cardinals defense stinks:
  Pressure rate: 17% (30th)
  Opponent first downs: 203 (32nd)
  EPA/play on defense: 31st
  Opponent success rate: 31st
• The Cardinals haven’t been a public side yet this season. Arizona is the only team this season without a game as the public side.
  Teams without public side through their first nine games last decade: 2023 ARI, 2021 PHI, 2021 CHI, 2017 CLE, 2016 CLE, 2015 CLE, 2015 TB, 2015 SF, 2014 LV, 2014 LAR.
  With Murray back, the Cards look like they will close as the public side this week. Last game as a public side? Jan. 1 2023 against Atlanta.

Week 1: ARI +7 at WAS, 22% tickets (ARI covered)
Week 2: ARI +4.5 vs. NYG, 18% tickets (ARI covered)
Week 3: ARI +12.5 vs. DAL, 18% tickets (ARI covered)
Week 4: ARI +15 at SF, 36% tickets (ARI didn’t cover)
Week 5: ARI +3 vs. CIN, 42% tickets (ARI didn’t cover)
Week 6: ARI: +7 at LAR, 38% tickets (ARI didn’t cover)
Week 7: ARI +9 at SEA, 37% tickets (ARI didn’t cover)
Week 8: ARI +9.5 vs BAL, 24% tickets (ARI covered)
Week 9: ARI +13 at CLE, 30% tickets (ARI didn’t cover)

• The Lions opened as an underdog and are now the favorites. Those such teams are 45-84 ATS since 2019 and 9-12 ATS this season.
  Week 10: DET, NO, TB, IND
• Teams to see the line move three points or more away from them are 18-27-2 ATS this season.
  57-87-3 ATS since start of last year
  114-151-4 ATS since 2020
  Week 10: DAL, IND, DET, NO. Close: BAL, HOU
• Jared Goff is 18-6-1 against the first-half spread over the last two seasons, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
• The Lions are 29-13 ATS (69%) since the start of the 2021 season, most-profitable team ATS in the NFL ($1,253). Second-best is Cincinnati.
  The Lions are four wins away from 10 ATS wins in three straight seasons (5-2 ATS this year). Prior to this stretch, they had one 10-win ATS season (2010) since 1995.
  They are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
• Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor:
  Indoor: 29-14 ATS (19-6 ATS last two seasons)
  Outdoor: 34-34-2 ATS (25-20-1 ATS in November or earlier | 9-14-1 ATS in December-January)
• Goff is 20-8 ATS at home since 2020, most-profitable QB in the NFL.
  Goff on the road since 2020: 15-12 ATS
• Goff is 14-8 ATS off a SU loss with the Lions, including 11-4 ATS when that game is played at home.
  When Goff’s team is above .500 SU and coming off a loss, he’s 12-6-1 ATS
• Goff on extended rest (eight-plus days): 14-11-2 ATS (not including Week 1)
  Goff at home on extended rest with Lions: 5-1 SU/ATS, covering by 10.5 PPG
• Dating back to last season, Goff has covered seven of his last eight games vs. above .500 SU opponents, going 12-4 ATS in this spot since 2021 – the second-best mark in the NFL, behind Joe Burrow.
  Since the start of 2021, Goff is 10-2 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage of 66% or higher.
• Goff is 7-4 ATS in games not in EST with the Lions; he was 25-31-2 ATS in that spot with the Rams.
• The Jaguars and Lions are in good spots. Good teams on long rest tend to win. Teams with a win percentage of 75% or more coming off a bye are 132-81-1 SU (62%) over last 20 years.
  111-58-1 SU as a favorite
  20-23 SU as a underdog
• Goff has started eight games in SoFi Stadium, one with Detroit and seven with the Rams. He is 5-3 SU/ATS.

• Fewest SU wins for teams with win total of 9.5 or more:
  Jets, Chargers: 4
• The Chargers have played 26 games since the start of last season, and 18 of them have finished within seven points.
  19 of the Chargers last 27 games have been decided by 7 points or less dating back to Week 18 last year. The Chargers last nine losses were by 14, 3, 3, 2, 1, 3, 7, 3 and 6 points.
• Justin Herbert’s career W-L record has been, for the most part, a product of his defense.
  When his defense allows 27 points or more, Chargers are 6-24 SU, 9-21 ATS.
  When his defense allows fewer than 27 points, Chargers are 23-5 SU, 22-5-1 ATS.
• Herbert is 16-12 ATS on the road, and only 14-14-1 ATS at home in his career.
  Chargers have finished .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 consecutive seasons.
  Chargers have finished above .500 ATS once at home in the last 10 years.
• Herbert by time zone:
  EST/CST: 14-7 ATS
  MST/PST: 17-19-1 ATS
• Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite:
  Underdog: 13-8 ATS, 18-3 in 6-point teasers
  Favorite: 18-18-1 ATS, 27-8 in 6-point teasers
• Herbert is 16-18-1 ATS in “toss-up” games in his career (spread of 4 points or less), including 11-15-1 ATS with spread of 3 or less. He’s 2-6-1 ATS in his last nine games in this spot, with his two wins over the Vikings and Jets.
• Herbert is 34-24 1H ATS, he’s 17-9 1H ATS since start of last season – third-best mark in the NFL.
• Herbert is 17-36-5 against the 2H spread in his career.
  Since 2005, he ranks 250th out of 254 QBs in 2H ATS profitability.
  He’s 8-25-2 2H ATS when leading at HT (-$1,764, third-worst in NFL since 2005).

Herbert 2H ATS career:
2023: 2-5-1
2022: 6-10-2
2021: 5-12
2020: 4-9-2

• Teams playing on the road off a loss are 280-242-13 ATS since 2019, 27-24-2 ATS this year. Business trip bet.
  Week 10: CAR, TEN, SF, NYJ, ATL, NYG
• Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 84-55-1 ATS (60.4%) since 2020.
  Week 10: NYG, ARI, SEA
• The Giants are 8-1 to the under this season, best under team in the NFL.
  That is the Giants best start to the over or under through nine games since 1980.
• The Giants are 42-17-2 to the under since 2020 – by far the best mark to the under in the NFL during that stretch.
• They have scored 10 or fewer points in back-to-back games.
  When those teams are underdogs of 3 or more in their next game, they are 103-76-3 ATS over last 20 years.
• Brian Daboll led the Giants to an impressive 11-3 ATS record as an underdog in Year 1, going 7-6  SU in those spots. This season hasn’t been as kind.
  The Giants are 1-7 SU and 2-5-1 ATS as an underdog in 2023.
  They went 7-0 ATS after a SU loss last season. This year, they are 1-3 ATS after covering a big number vs. Buffalo last week.
• Since 2017, the Giants are 8-39 SU in games played after the 1 p.m. ET window, making them the least-profitable NFL team on the ML.
• Tough schedule: Four of the Giants' first six games were on the road, and Weeks 9-11 are on the road as ell (LV, DAL, WSH).
• Giants are 17-14 ATS on the road last 4 years, but its been very up and down
  2023: 1-4 ATS | 2022: 7-2 ATS | 2021: 3-6 ATS | 2020: 6-2 ATS
• Tough to play coming off a party-city road trip. Over the last decade, teams to play on road and coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 61-94-6 ATS (39%).
• The Giants allowed eight sacks last week to the Raiders. Teams that allow seven or more sacks in their previous game are 89-115-5 ATS last 20 years (43.6%).
  Week 10: NYG, NYJ, ARI

• Double-digit favorites in divisional games are 122-149-9 ATS (45%) last 20 years. In November or earlier, they are 54-85-6 ATS (38.8%).
• Teams to see the line move 3 points or more away from you are 18-27-2 ATS this season
  57-87-3 ATS since start of last year
  114-151-4 ATS since 2020
  Week 10: DAL, IND, DET, NO. Close: BAL, HOU
• CeeDee Lamb has 100-plus receiving yards in three straight games, tying a career high. Four straight has only been done twice in Cowboys history: 1995, Michael Irvin (7), 2007, Terrell Owens (4).
• Biggest Spreads last 20 years in games with total below 40:
  -19.5: Seahawks vs. Jaguars, 2013 (SEA 45-17)
  -17: Saints at Broncos, 2020 (NO 31-3)
  -16.5: Steelers vs. Lions, 2005 (PIT 35-21)
• Dak Prescott has had success playing against the NFC East.
  He’s 28-8 SU, 25-11 ATS all-time.
  Last 20 years, he’s the fourth-most profitable QB ATS vs. his own division: 1. Aaron Rodgers, 2. Ben Roethlisberger, 3. Tom Brady, 4. Prescott
  Prescott is 25-11 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,278), 35-38-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$504).
• Prescott is 9-4 ATS vs. Giants. His most profitable opponent ATS.
  Prescott has won 11 straight starts SU vs. Giants (11-2 SU in his career vs. NYG).
• Prescott is 6-0 ATS coming off a loss last two seasons and 5-9 ATS off a SU win.
  6-0 ATS mark is best in the NFL. Undefeated QBs ATS coming off a loss over last two seasons: Prescott, Deshaun Watson (4-0), Sam Darnold (3-0)
  5-9 ATS mark is fourth-worst in the NFL.
• Prescott tends to perform well as a big favorite. He’s 32-7 SU, 27-11-1 ATS as a favorite of 6 or more points in his career.
  He’s 22-4 SU, 17-8-1 ATS as a favorite of 6-plus points at home.
  As a double-digit favorite, he's 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS.
  As a favorite of 6-plus vs. NFC East opponents, Prescott is 13-1 SU, 11-3 ATS.
• Prescott does well vs. bad teams. He is 33-10 SU, 28-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 21-23 SU, 17-27 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
  The 28-13-2 ATS mark is second-best in the last 20 years behind Brady.
  The 17-27 ATS mark ranks 253rd out of 257 QBs in the last 20 years.
• Mike McCarthy is 59-39 ATS vs. division opponents with GB/DAL (11-9 ATS with DAL).
  Last 20 years, he’s the most-profitable coach vs. division opponents ATS (+$1,738)
  Vs. Division: 49-27 ATS as favorite, 10-12 ATS as underdog.
• Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson has 13 targets in the red zone this year, most among NFL tight ends and fourth-most among all players.
• Can the Cowboys keep it going? Last three seasons:
  After a loss SU: 11-1 ATS
  After a win SU: 16-14 ATS
• If you bet on Prescott to throw an INT in every game last season, you would be up 8.6U (most of any QB). Second is Aaron Rodgers at +7.2U.
  This season, you would be down 1.1 units betting a “yes” INT for Prescott.

• Washington has done a good job at winning on the road in a primetime slot lately. They are 8-5 SU on the road at 4 p.m. ET window or later since 2020, second-most profitable team on ML in the NFL.
• Ron Rivera’s team is on a road trip, going to PST this week. It is the fourth time in Rivera’s career he will go coast to coast. With a game in PST, his team is failing to cover the spread by 15.7 PPG.
• Sam Howell is second in the NFL in passing yards this season. He has more passing TDs than Herbert, Prescott and Goff.
• Howell is attempting to defy the odds for another week:
  QBs in their first 10 career starts, playing on the road in NE vs. Belichick were 5-31 SU – now, 6-31 after last week.
  QBs in their first season are 8-28 SU on the road in Seattle since 1970.
• Sam Howell has been sacked 44 times so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. The league record for sacks taken in a season is 76, set in 2002 by David Carr for the Texans, in their first year in the NFL.

Most Times Sacked as QB (through nine games):
49 — David Carr, 2002
46 — David Carr, 2005
44 — Sam Howell, 2023

• Howell is 4-1 ATS in his career on the road. All five games have ended in one-score games.
  Howell is 1-3-1 ATS at home
  Best Washington QB ATS on road last 20 years: Rex Grossman, Tim Hasselbeck, Howell
• Rivera is coming off a win as an underdog last week against the Patriots. You might assume there is a step back the following week, but Rivera is 16-6-1 ATS in this spot since 2017 – the best ATS in this spot in that span. He is 25-11-1 ATS in this spot for his career, most-profitable coach in the NFL.
• The dog is strong in Rivera. He is 60-43-2 ATS as an underdog and 47-52-2 ATS as a favorite with Washington and Carolina.
• In the last four seasons, Rivera-coached games are 36-22-2 (62%) to the under.
  In that span, Rivera is the third-best coach to the under (Joe Judge, Sean McVay).
• Rivera has had issues covering the 1H spread. Washington is 3-6 1H ATS this season and 28-42-2 1H ATS since 2019 – worst coach 1H ATS in NFL.

• Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 84-55-1 ATS (60.4%) since 2020.
  Week 10: NYG, ARI, SEA
• Seattle is coming off a tough offensive performance with fewer than 200 passing yards, while scoring just a field goal. Teams coming off games in which they had fewer than 200 yards and three or fewer points are 103-80-2 ATS in their next game.
  Week 10: SEA, ARI
• Geno Smith is 20-16-2 ATS as a dog, but only 10-12 ATS as a favorite.
• Smith has performed well after a a loss. He’s 20-13 ATS. After a SU win, he’s only 8-13-2 ATS.
• Pete Carroll teams usually start slow before they get going:
  Carroll in Weeks 1 and 2: 11-16-1 ATS
  Carroll in Week 3 on: 110-92-7 ATS
• Teams on the second leg or later of a road trip when facing Seattle are 12-38 SU, 20-29-1 ATS.
• Carroll does well at home:
  71-28 SU at home with Russell Wilson and Smith
  10-7 SU at home with all other QBs
• The offensive bounce-back hasn’t boded well for Carroll and the Seahawks. They are just 9-13-2 ATS after scoring 13 points or less in their previous game since 2014.
  However, Seattle is 2-0 SU/ATS in that spot this season, scoring 37 and 20 points, respectively.
• In 60 starts, Smith's teams have closed as a favorite of a touchdown or more once — earlier this season at home against the Cardinals (-9). Seattle won by 10.
  Smith is just 4-7 ATS career when favored by more than a field goal.

• The Jets allowed eight sacks to the Chargers on Monday night. Teams that allow seven or more sacks in their previous game are 89-115-5 ATS last 20 years (43.6%).
  Week 10: NYG, NYJ, ARI
• Teams playing on the road off a loss are 280-242-13 ATS since 2019. 27-24-2 ATS this year. Business trip bet.
  Week 10: CAR, TEN, SF, NYJ, ATL, NYG
• This will be the 34th night game for the Jets and Giants since the 2018 season. They are a combined 4-29 SU, including 2-25 SU in their last 27 night games.
  Since 2018, the Jets and Giants are 1-15 SU at home in night games.
  Since 2018, the Jets and Giants are 2-14 SU in their last 16 road games at night.
• Zach Wilson has 118 pass attempts since his last interception. That is the second-longest streak of his career.
  Wilson has also thrown just one interception in his last 219 pass attempts. That’s one interception in his last 24 quarters of football.
• The Jets have three wins with Wilson as the starting QB this season. All three have required a fourth-quarter comeback.
  Wilson is tied with Kenny Pickett for the most 4Q comebacks in the NFL this season.
• Last season, Wilson became the first quarterback since the NFL merger to record the worst passer rating in two consecutive seasons. In 2023, he currently has the third-worst passer rating in the NFL, ahead of just Daniel Jones and Ryan Tannehill.
• This is Wilson’s first career game in PST. His previous three this far west came in MST – all against Broncos. He’s 2-1 SU/ATS in those games.
• The Jets have been favored in five games with Wilson as the starter this season. They are 3-2 SU and 2-2-1 ATS. His highest spread as a favorite is 3 against the Giants a few weeks ago.
• Wilson and the Jets have struggled to win against good offensive teams:
  20 PPG or higher: 5-13 SU
  19.9 PPG or less: 6-4 SU
• With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets start a "backup" QB for the rest of the season. They have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup QB, going 6-28 SU, 13-20-1 ATS over the last decade.
• Wilson has made three career starts at night:
  27-6 home loss to the Chargers, 2023 as 3-point underdogs
  23-20 home loss to the Chiefs, 2023 as 7.5-point underdogs
  19-3 home loss to the Jaguars, 2022 as 2.5-point favorites.
• 201 QBs have made a night start in the last 20 years, none are 0-4 SU or worse right now. With a loss, Wilson would be.
• The Jets are historically a struggling road team. They are 24-38-4 ATS on the road since 2015, under .500 ATS on the road in seven of the last eight seasons.
  The Jets' last road night game win: 2018 vs. Detroit.
• The Jets are +300 to make the playoffs right now. They haven’t made playoffs in 12 seasons, the longest drought in the NFL.

Longest active playoff drought four major sports:
12 – Jets
12 – Sabres

• Recent generations don’t know a good primetime Raiders team.
  Last 20 years, they are 18-35 SU in night games.
  Only 1 of 12 QBs are above .500 SU at night for the Raiders: Jason Campbell, 1-0 SU.
• Teams with a negative SU point differential and over .500 ATS later in the season are 142-118-6 ATS since 2015.
  Week 10: NE, GB, TEN, HOU, LV
• This is the 10th night game in Vegas since the Raiders moved there in 2020. They are just 4-5 SU/ATS.
• The Raiders' team total under is 8-1 this season – tied with the Giants and Patriots for best TT under record in the NFL.
• Aidan O’Connell is the 24th different Raiders starting QB over the last 20 years.
  Only two of those previous 24 have been profitable ATS for the Raiders: Jason Campbell and Terrelle Pryor. O’Connell can join the list this week at 1-1 ATS currently.
• Raiders home/road since moving to Las Vegas:
  At home in Vegas: 14-15 SU, 16-13 ATS
  On road/neutral: 14-17 SU, 12-19 ATS
• Raiders have struggled to score in their last five night games with recently fired Josh McDaniels: 14, 17, 18, 10, 16.
• At 1-0 ATS, Antonio Pierce is already making Raiders history.
  He's the third LV coach since 1990 over .500 ATS (Hue Jackson and Jon Gruden).

• Unders on Monday Night Football are 10-1 in 2023 and 55-28-1 since 2019.
• Sean Payton in night games: 41-22 SU, 33-29-1 ATS. He’s 0-1 SU/ATS with Broncos.
  Payton is 31-24-1 ATS at night with Drew Brees, 2-5 ATS with all other QBs.
  Payton is 11-11 SU as an underdog at night. He’s won SU as a dog with three different QBs: Brees, Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill.
• Payton has coached 26 games on MNF. He is 17-9 SU, but 11-15 ATS.
• With the Broncos on MNF, Denver gets a little extra time t prep. Payton is 38-21 SU on extended rest, and when he is a dog on extended rest, he is 9-5 ATS.
• Russell Wilson is 34-18-1 SU, 30-20-1 ATS in night games during his career.
  He is 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS with Broncos and 33-14-1 SU, 28-17-1 ATS with Seahawks.
  Wilson is 23-5 SU in night games at home and 11-13-1 SU away from home.
  He is 10-5 SU, 7-7-1 ATS on MNF, but he has lost three straight starts on MNF SU, scoring 16, 16 and 15 points.
• Rest hasn’t been best for Wilson lately. He’s 1-6 SU in his last seven starts on extended rest.
  This 15-day rest for Denver is Wilson's longest since 2014.
• Wilson is 27-14 SU playing on the East Coast in his career, 1-3 SU with Broncos and 26-11 SU with Seahawks.

Biggest underdog night game, Russell Wilson:
+10.5 – 2023 at KC (L, 19-8)
+7.5 – 2016 at NE (W, 31-24)
+7.5 – 2012 at SF (L, 13-6)

• Wilson has covered the spread in two straight. He hasn’t done it in three straight since October 2020 with Seattle.
• The Broncos are coming off a bye and are a big underdog in Buffalo. In the last 20 years, underdogs of 7 or more points, coming off a bye week, are 23-67-2 SU, 48-44 ATS. But the 23 wins SU lead to a 22.9% ROI, with a $100 bettor up $2,105.
• Denver's defense has allowed a completion percentage of 73.6%, tied for the third-highest through eight games in the Super Bowl era.
• The Broncos are 7-1 ATS in the game after playing the Chiefs since the start of the 2019 season. They have won seven consecutive games SU the game after playing Kansas City.
• Broncos defense through eight game:
  Opponent completion percentage: 73.6% — fourth-highest in Super Bowl era.
  Allowing 5.4 yards per rush – eighth-most in SB era
• Wilson is 13-24 SU over the last three seasons; he was 107-52-1 SU in his first nine seasons in the NFL.
  Wilson is 4-12 SU in his last 16 starts and 5-15 SU in his last 20 starts for the Broncos.
• Wilson with Seahawks vs. Broncos:
  DEN: 7-16 SU, 8-14-1 ATS (both marks are second-worst in the NFL).
  SEA: 113-60-1 SU, 90-77-7 ATS
• Wilson’s 7-16 SU mark has lost bettors $922 with the Broncos, making him the least-profitable QB on the ML for Denver over the last 20 years.

• Expect a low-scoring game? When both teams are on extended rest, the under is 99-47-1 (67.8%) since 2018, including 23-5 so far this season.
• The Bills are 15-2 SU in their last 17 home games, including 25-5 SU in their last 30 home games.
  They have won six consecutive home games SU at night (8-1 SU in night home games since 2019).
• Josh Allen is 15-7 SU, 11-11 ATS in night games, including 8-1 SU at home, but just 7-6 SU away from home.
  Allen is 12-4 SU as a favorite at night and only 3-3 SU as a dog.
• Bills have lost five straight games ATS.
  The five straight ATS losses are a career-high for Josh Allen.
  The Bills haven’t lost five straight ATS since 1976, when they lost six straight ATS.
• Buffalo has lost five straight night games ATS and four straight night games at home ATS.
• Allen has thrown an INT in five straight games – the first time he’s done that in the regular season in his career.
  The last time Allen didn’t have a turnover in consecutive regular-season starts was Dec. 19-28, 2020.
  Allen in the regular season:
  69 INT since 2018, most in NFL.
  55 fumbles since 2018, most in NFL.
• Allen has 60 career wins, and 45 have been by 7 points or more.
• Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career:
  He is 31-19-3 ATS on seven days rest (12th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot).
  He’s 7-9-1 ATS on short rest and 6-12-1 ATS on extended rest.
• Allen’s 6-12-1 ATS mark on extended rest ranks 216th out of 219 QBs in the last 20 years.
• The biggest advantage for the Bills might be the second half. With Allen, Buffalo is 56-34-3 against the 2H spread. Since 2005, he’s the second-most profitable QB on the 2H spread (out of 254 QBs).
• The Bills defense allowed 24 points to the Jaguars last week. Allen and the Bills are 19-5 SU, 14-8-2 ATS in games after allowing 24 or more points, including 11-1 SU in their last 12 games in this spot.
• The Bills are coming off of a loss against the Bengals last week:
  Allen off a SU loss: 20-7 SU, 13-12-2 ATS.
  Allen off a SU loss, listed as a favorite: 16-2 SU.
• As a home favorite, Allen and the Bills are 31-7 SU. He’s ninth in the NFL in ML profitability over the last 20 years.
  As a home favorite of 7 or more, Allen is 19-1 SU; he lost to the Colts in 2021.
  Allen is 27-4 SU as a favorite of 7 or more overall, including 11-0 SU off a loss.
  When Allen's Bills are favored by 3 or more after a SU loss, they're 15-2 SU, 9-6-2 ATS.

System: Simple. Bet good teams after scoring low points in a loss.

Matches: SEA

System: Jump on the rollercoaster. Bet the teams who just lost big.

Matches: NYJ

System: Offensive third down conversion percentage. Follow the good teams.

Matches: SF, BAL, DAL, BUF

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

• NEW LEADER: Cowboys WR Kavontae Turpin takes top spot at +29.5U with +850 hit in W9.
• New Top 10 Addition: Keaton Mitchell +17U.
• W9 Biggest Hits: Keaton Mitchell +2200 and Drew Sample +1200

Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.

• Jakobi Meyers hits again at +1200 — fourth time in 2023! Now at +42.5U on the season.
• Barring a miracle, doubt any player surpassing Jaleel McLaughlin anytime soon.
• Biggest W9 First TD Hit: Irv Smith Jr +2800

League Trends ⤵️

Teams to see line move 3 points or more away from you — ex. -3 to -6 — are 18-27-2 ATS this season

These teams are 57-87-3 ATS since start of last year and 114-151-4 ATS since 2020.

Week 10: DAL, IND, DET, NO .. Close: BAL, HOU

Luck Unders move to 20-11 this year (64.5%) and 114-77-2 (60%) since 2018
Luck Unders for week 10:
CAR vs CHI
IND vs NE

Luck Matchup – GB +3.5 vs PIT
Luck Difference of 29, Luck Gap of 49.6%
So many trends fit this one:
Unlucky road teams meeting at least one criteria 54-23-3 ATS (69%)
Unlucky road teams with Luck Diff 28+ are 12-2 (86%) ATS
After Week 4: 11-1 ATS (92%)
Road unlucky teams and game has a positive luck total 29-10-2 (72%) ATS
Low total (game total below 38) road dogs 89-55-3 (62%) since 2009 — Raybon was on this trend last week with MIN vs ATL

Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 32-10-1 straight up and 28-15 against the spread.

Favorites at Tottenham: 3-5 ATS. All other international stadiums: 25-10 ATS.

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

ATS Standings and Stat Sheet ⤵️

Award Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Awards Matrix

	Leader	Second In Odds	Third In Odds
NFL MVP	Patrick Mahomes (+275)	Jalen Hurts (+300)	Lamar Jackson (+400)
Offensive POY	Christian McCaffrey (+140)	Tyreek Hill (+140)	AJ Brown (+600)
Defensive POY	Micah Parsons (+185)	Myles Garrett (+185)	T.J. Watt (+250)
Offensive ROY	CJ Stroud (-500)	Puka Nacua (+700)	Jahmyr Gibbs (+1400)
Defensive ROY	Jalen Carter (-300)	Devon Witherspoon (+300)	Brian Branch (+1200)
Comeback POY	Damar Hamlin (-115)	Tua Tagovailoa (+175)	Joshua Dobbs (+900)
Coach Of The Year	Dan Campbell (+200)	Mike McDaniel (+400)	DeMeco Ryans (+600)
Updated as of November 7

Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:

• Lamar Jackson's ascension in the MVP race is a story. He was 18-1 entering Week 6, now 4-1 and the third choice.
• Offensive ROY is a wrap. Stroud went from -165 to -500 over the weekend.
• Comeback POY is a race. Hamlin is down to -115. Josh Dobbs is on the board for the first time at +900 at the third choice and Aaron Rodgers now on the board at 28-1.

Trivia Instructions

For this weeks trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer

Trivia Question: With Kyler Murray back this week for Arizona. Over the last 20 years, who is the most profitable QB against the spread playing for the Arizona Cardinals? He last started a game for them back in 2005-06.

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