NFL Week 12 features a 14-game slate, with the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins and Washington Commanders enjoying a bye week.
For my Week 12 picks, we have under predictions, spread and moneyline bets, receiving yards props for stars like Travis Kelce and Tee Higgins, plus receptions props for Kyle Pitts and Chase Brown, among others.
I also have a spread pick for Sunday Night Football between the Buccaneers and Rams — plus an AFC North champion futures prediction.
Let's get to my NFL Week 12 picks and predictions!
NFL Week 12 Predictions
Patriots vs Bengals Spread/Moneyline Picks; Props
This game has already been a wild ride before it’s even begun.
I took the Bengals +7 on the Hot Read, then saw the line balloon to +9 the next day when Ja’Marr Chase was suspended for Spitgate. Then it bounced right back the other way as Joe Burrow began practicing and looked like he might start. Now, as that remains uncertain, the line has settled right back in the middle.
Chase is a real loss, of course, but Burrow would be an even bigger gain. It looks like the Bengals quarterback will be listed as questionable and could even be something of a game-time decision, but I think this is one of the worst lines of the season, and I’m going to like Cincinnati either way. I make it Patriots under a field goal if Burrow plays.
Editor's Note: Burrow will not be activated for this game.
This is a kitchen sink spot for the Bengals, now 3–7 with a daunting Ravens–Bills-Ravens stretch up next, playing at home with their backs against the wall. The game shapes up as a shootout, and Cincinnati has the guns to go blow for blow and save their season.
We know how bad their defense is. It’s not just 32nd in DVOA; it's now the worst ever defense measured by DVOA through 10 games. The only real good news is that defense is not sticky, and worst-ever can truly only regress to the mean — any change is good.
The key in this matchup, though, is that the Patriots defense has also been pretty bad. Despite the 9-2 record, New England ranks in the bottom five both overall and against the pass in Defensive DVOA. New England is also missing Milton Williams and potentially a few other names on the front seven. This pass defense is beatable, and the Bengals are ready to pass.
The Patriots offense has been good but not great, fringe top 10 in many metrics. It hasn’t run well all season and may not be able to hurt this bad run defense, so that makes things more volatile in the pass game and puts it all on the shoulders of Drake Maye.
Maye has played like an MVP this season, but gets precious little help — and if Burrow does return, he negates that QB advantage, but with better weapons around him.
The Bengals have actually had the better offense of late, ranking third by DVOA over the last six games. Cincinnati’s offense also has huge home-road splits, top five at home versus bottom five on the road.
Over their last 12 home games, the Bengals average a whopping 36.8 PPG, with all but one of those games at 30 points or better. Joe Flacco has been terrific at home too, scoring 33, 38, and 42 with Cincinnati, and so far this season winning home games against the Steelers and Packers, nearly a third til a last-second Bears loss, and two other one-point losses.
All signs point to this being a shootout, and the Bengals have the better offense, the better weapons, and maybe now the better QB if Burrow plays.
I love this spot for the Bengals, and I’m betting both the spread and the moneyline — but let’s talk about when to bet it.
The price at this point is a hedge, at Bengals +7 and +270 ML. If Burrow starts, that dips below the key number, so if you think Joe Cool plays, you should grab your ticket now — or wait and get confirmation that this is an even better spot for Cincinnati, despite a slightly worse number. Burrow has also been lights out in his career as an underdog.
If you’re worried Burrow sits, you may want to wait to get confirmation of that, too. Flacco back in should likely push this past Bengals +7 the other direction and buy a better price. However, I’ll still like it either way.
I’m also nibbling the Bengals at +4000 to win the division (ESPN Bet). Those upcoming games against the Ravens, Bills, and then Ravens again are tough. Still, they’re also not as bad as they sound, the way those teams are playing, and they’re a direct opportunity to win against opponents Cincinnati is competing head-to-head with for a long-shot playoff berth.
Pick: Bengals +7 and +270 ML
Tee Higgins and Chase Brown Props
If we like the Bengals to put up points against the Patriots, we should certainly be betting overs, especially on the receiving game. Those overs look good if Cincinnati is playing well, since they’re likely the reason why, but they’re also still good in a trailing script as the Bengals will need to pass to get back into the game.
At first glance, Ja’Marr Chase being out might make you feel hesitant to invest in fellow wide receiver Tee Higgins, assuming the opponent can put more of its energy into stopping Higgins. However, the Patriots rank dead last against opposing WR1s by DVOA.
Against five “true” WR1s this season, New England has allowed an average of six catches for 90 yards, with five of the seven putting up at least 6/97.
That’s pretty close to what Tee Higgins has done in his last five games without Chase, at 6.2 catches for 102 yards, with three of those five games at 114 yards or better. I’m taking one shot at a higher alternate line and playing 90+ receiving yards for Tee at +240 (bet365).
Higgins has five TDs in his last five games, all with Flacco, with at least one score in all but one of those games. A higher scoring game obviously means more TD opportunities, so let’s bet on another Higgins TD at +140 (Fanatics). You can combine the two for 90 yards and a score at +425 (DraftKings too).
The Chase Brown angle is somewhat parallel.
Brown has struggled as a runner this season while excelling as a pass catcher of late, largely because of the absence of a teammate. With third-down back Samaje Perine out for the last couple of games, Brown has been a workhorse, playing 89% of the snaps, way up from his usual. That’s resulted in huge volume in the passing game: eight catches for 75 yards on 14 targets in one game, six for 28 on eight targets in the other.
The Patriots have been the stingiest fantasy defense against opposing running backs this season because the run defense has been so strong, but they’ve actually allowed the most RB receptions. Seven running backs have caught at least five balls in a game, including eight each to similarly great receiving RBs DeVon Achane and Bijan Robinson.
This one may actually be even better if it’s Flacco, as much as he likes to check it down to his RBs. In nine starts this season, he’s seen an RB catch five, six, eight, and eight passes.
Take the Over 4.5 on Chase Brown receptions at +100 (Fanatics), and this looks like a definite escalator spot in case the targets all pile up again. I’ll play 6+ receptions (+175), seven (+320), and eight (+650), all at bet365.
I like all of these Higgins and Brown props with either Bengals QB. If anything, I like the Higgins TD and Brown escalator even better with Flacco because he’s been feeding both so much lately!
Pick: Tee Higgins 90+ Receiving Yards; Chase Brown Over 4.5 Receptions
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Giants vs Lions Spread Pick
I took Lions -9.5 on the Lookahead last week, and though the line hasn’t moved toward two TDs yet as expected, I still love the pick.
There’s no more dead cat bounce for the Giants after firing their coach, and there’s no RB1 or WR1 either, with Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers nowhere to be found. We’ll see if it’s Jaxson Dart or Jameis Winston at quarterback — looks more like Winston at this point, with Dart yet to be cleared from concussion protocol — so that would mean QB1 too.
However, the real problem here is the Giants defense, especially the horrible run defense that ranks dead last by both DVOA and EPA per play. That poor run D has no shot against Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
The Lions want to bite kneecaps and run the football, and this looks like a get-right spot for this run game. You may want to consider RB overs, too. Detroit is running better inside this season, but runs more often outside, and that’s where the Giants defense is especially bad — advantage Gibbs?
Jared Goff has been nearly invincible playing indoors with the Lions at 36–13–1 ATS (73%), and it’s not just him. The Lions have the league’s best defense by DVOA at home this season as well.
Detroit is also on an incredible streak, covering 13 straight games after an outright loss. That includes 3–0 this season with wins by 15, 22, and 31. The Lions are also unbeaten as double-digit favorites since the start of last season, including wins by 24, 38, and 46.
This is the get-right spot for the Lions, so take Detroit -10 (Caesars) as the team settles in before its Thanksgiving showdown, but don’t stop there. When Detroit plays an inferior opponent, things often get ugly.
The Lions have seven wins since the start of last season by 22+ points, so play Lions -20.5 at +348 (bet365). They also have four wins by 31+, so Lions -30.5 is worth a shot too at +1100 (FanDuel).
Detroit has yet to have a truly monster score line this season, but had wins by 38, 38, and 46 last season, so let’s take the escalator all the way up. Place the last portion of your bet on Lions -37.5 at +2500 (FanDuel) and let’s hope for a Detroit blowout.
Pick: Lions -10
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Seahawks vs Titans Over/Under Pick
Last week, the Seahawks played in the DVOA Bowl against the Rams, with №1 vs №2. This week, it’s whatever the opposite of that is… the Toilet Bowl? It’s №1 vs №32, as the Titans have been mostly dreadful all season.
Although Seattle lost last week, its defense was absolutely dominant against a red-hot Rams offense. Seattle’s defense is also best in the league on the road by DVOA versus outside the top 10 at home.
The Titans offense is about as bad as it gets. The line has been poor, rookie quarterback Cam Ward has barely shown signs of life without any weapons to attack, and Tennessee just can’t score. The Titans are dead last in PPG at 14.3, including a meager 11.0 PPG against top-10 defenses.
Seattle may not necessarily put up a huge number either, though. The one real weakness on this team is the run game and the interior of the offensive line, which is suddenly missing its young center-guard combo from NDSU.
That’s rough timing against a Titans side whose only real strength is a pair of star defensive tackles, Jeffrey Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat. That could mean another tough game for Seahawks QB Sam Darnold if he’s facing interior pressure all day.
These are two of the three lowest variance teams in the NFL, so what you see is what you get — Seattle is great, Tennessee is bad, and we probably won’t get much of a surprise here. Still, it could be ugly along the way.
Totals between 39 and 44 that drop 1-to-4 points from open are 54.3% to the under since 2017. When a total starts to drop in that range, it’s typically profitable to join the steam. Grab the Under 40.5 before it fades further.
Pick: Under 40.5
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Colts vs Chiefs Props
This is the biggest game on the schedule, with the 5–5 Chiefs surprisingly fighting for their playoff lives.
I really wanted to back the Chiefs, but I have a hard time past -3. It’s difficult not to trust the Chiefs at home in such a big spot, especially since the defense is far better at home.
The Colts haven’t exactly been great against real opponents this season — touchdown losses to the Rams and Steelers, plus a fluky one-point win over the Broncos — but the usually reliable Patrick Mahomes trends haven’t held up this season like usual.
Mahomes is also 0–4 ATS in his career against opponents coming out of a bye week, and that’s especially troubling considering the extra time Indy DC Lou Anarumo has had to get his defense ready for Mahomes since Anarumo has really messed with Mahomes’ timing over the years in his time in Cincinnati.
Still, there’s another Anarumo pattern we can play: his teams are consistently bad against tight ends. His Bengals allowed the most fantasy points to TEs of any team last year, and this year’s Colts are fifth-worst in that metric and by DVOA. Indy’s corners are terrific overall and particularly good against WR1s, so Mahomes will need to attack with old reliable, Travis Kelce.
The Colts have really only faced two really good tight ends this year. They gave up 8/71 and a TD to Trey McBride and also saw rookie Oronde Gadsden Jr.’s breakout game at 7/164 and a score.
Even as Kelce slows down late in his career, he’s still producing. He’s had at least 47 receiving yards in all but one game this season, so his line of 50.5 yards (-110, BetMGM) is flat out disrespectful. Take the over.
Kelce has at least 6/60 in four of his last six games. You can play that combo as a simple SGP at +192 (FanDuel), and add in a touchdown as well at +390. He’s had 6/60/1 in three of his last six.
This is pretty close to a playoff game for the Chiefs, and Kelce has always been at his best in Kansas City’s biggest games.
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
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Jets vs Ravens Moneyline Pick
We’ve been red hot on upset picks for a month now — for and against the Panthers week after week — but this is the craziest long shot yet and likely where the magic ends.
However, I’m almost always going to consider an underdog in this range on the moneyline if I can make any case at all, and I can make a case for value on the Jets.
Something about the Ravens offense still feels off. Lamar Jackson keeps popping up on the injury report; first the hamstring, now the ankle. Baltimore’s rushing attack has also felt disappointing, and the Jets run defense has been good and should hold up enough.
The big mismatch is the Ravens passing attack against the 31st-ranked pass defense by DVOA, but Jackson hasn’t been able to punish opponents this season often.
The Jets are off extra rest after a Thursday night game, and Tyrod Taylor is a huge upgrade over Justin Fields since he can actually pass the ball. The Jets offense has been awful at home, worst in the league by DVOA, yet it is actually fringe top 10 on the road. The Ravens have been far worse at home this season on both offense and defense, though three of those games came without Jackson.
Baltimore scored 37 PPG in its first three games but dropped to 20.1 since. The Jets have been within one score in the fourth quarter in eight of their 10 games. Taylor is 6-3 ATS as more than a touchdown underdog in his career, with outright wins as a dog of 8, 8.5, and 10 points.
Since 2018, moneyline underdogs of between +750 and +1000 are 4-15 straight up. That may not look like much, but ML bettors are profiting at 96% ROI over that stretch because these numbers are so long.
The most likely outcome is a blowout Ravens win and a get-right game that makes our bet feel silly, but the hope is an ugly, low-scoring 17-16 win.
Sprinkle the Jets moneyline at +900 (ESPN Bet) and let’s see if they can pull off the unimaginable.
Be sure to shop around for the best line! That same bet is +600 at multiple books, and the long number is entirely the point. That’s almost an extra 50% payout on the same bet, even though it’s only a few percent more implied likelihood of a Jets win. Underdogs this long are worth a shot.
Pick: Jets Moneyline (+900)
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Jaguars vs Cardinals Picks: Spread & Moneyline
There are a few terrible teams the Jaguars might be worthy of being field-goal favorites against on the road, but the Cardinals definitely aren’t one of them. This is just a baffling line and a great spot to buy low on Arizona and sell high on Jacksonville all at once.
Arizona was unlucky to run into a finally healthy San Francisco team last week and looked bad, but the Cards have been competitive in nearly every game this season.
Jacksonville is riding high after beating up on the Chargers in a dominant win, but that game got away from LA with all the injuries in both trenches.
Considering last week alone, the Jaguars look like a playoff contender, and the Cardinals look like a rebuilding team. However, if you zoom out, the picture changes drastically.
On the season, these teams look like relative equals. In fact, I have them ranked back-to-back in my power ratings, meaning I actually make Arizona the favorite here with home-field advantage factored in.
The Cardinals defense is the best unit on the field, even more so as corners Garrett Williams and Will Johnson are getting healthy. Hunter Rallis has that unit playing really good football, and Arizona’s offense is missing its top players in Kyler Murray, James Conner, and Marvin Harrison Jr., but has played better, more cohesive football without them.
For all those injuries, Jacksonville may have even more. The Jaguars’ injury report this week feels like almost the entire team. Both RBs, Tuten and Etienne, are in doubt, along with Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange, and there are injuries on both sides in the trenches and to both starting corners, too. Those RB injuries could be especially important in this matchup against a sometimes beatable run defense.
The Jaguars just aren’t good enough to have earned the full key number on the road, and the trends are heavily in favor of Arizona. Jags QB Trevor Lawrence has been poor as a favorite at 10–15 ATS (40%) and worse against teams below .500 at 7–16 ATS (30%).
Still, it’s the team-agnostic trends that are even more convincing here, each telling the same story: buy low on Arizona and sell high on Jacksonville:
- Teams coming off a 17+ point win as underdogs of a TD or less: 65–121–3 ATS (35%)
- Teams coming off a 17+ loss against opponents off a 17+ win: 117–80–4 ATS (59%)
- Home teams since 2010 facing opponents that covered by 26+ points as underdogs the previous week: 40–15–1 ATS (73%).
This is a great spot to invest in Arizona and sell Jacksonville. Be sure to get Cardinals +3 while it’s available (-110, ESPN Bet), and play the +145 moneyline too. I make Arizona favorites.
And while we’re here, we may as well keep riding Trey McBride overs — because Jacoby Brissett sure is. McBride has been positively on fire with Brissett, averaging 8.4 catches for 89 yards in five games together with at least one touchdown in every game.
The Jaguars allow the second-most fantasy points to TEs, including six scores against their last seven TE1s.
Play McBride Anytime TD at +110 (bet365) and touch 2+ TDs too at +700. And though McBride’s receptions and yards lines are mostly baked in now, he does have eight, nine, 10, and 10-catch games with Brissett, so I’ll play 10+ receptions at +220 (bet365).
If you like both angles together, that certainly makes sense. McBride to score a touchdown in a Cardinals win is +305 if you want to play both (bet365).
Pick: Cardinals +3 and +145 ML
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Eagles vs Cowboys Spread & Moneyline Pick
The Eagles continue to get by on the skin of their teeth. The offense simply is not clicking, and I’ve been looking for the right spot to fade Philadelphia.
The Cowboys played the Eagles basically even in the season opener. That one was in Philadelphia, and that’s where we’ll start, because the move to Dallas here is a huge swing in this rivalry. The home team has won 12 of the last 14 in this matchup, with the only two losses featuring a backup QB starting for the home team.
The Cowboys offense always looks much more comfortable at home and is the better offense here, and Dallas also has the clearly better special teams, so the question is just how much of an advantage Philadelphia’s defense is.
The Eagles have been terrific of late, but Dallas’s defense is improving too, and Quinnen Williams looks like an immediate difference maker. The Cowboys are more bad than awful now on that end, surely in the bottom 10 instead of being the league-worst.
That’s significant against an Eagles offense that’s struggled all year and might be headed in the wrong direction now that the offensive line is compromised. Philadelphia is missing Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens, and the Johnson loss in particular is massive.
Per Aaron Schatz, the on/off splits this season with Lane Johnson are insane. His presence this season has been worth +0.18 EPA per play, +14% DVOA, and +51 expected points versus his time off the field. Per Bill Barnwell, the Eagles offense ranks third in EPA with Lane Johnson on the field in his career and plummets to 28th without, fifth-worst!
Johnson is perhaps the league’s best pass protector, so it’s no surprise that his absence has most directly hurt Philadelphia QBs over the years. That’s bad news, right as the passing game has found some footing, especially since the run game hasn’t been as strong this year.
Jalen Hurts has never been great in this spot, just 11–18–2 ATS (38%) against sub-.500 teams, and the Eagles aren’t exactly dominating teams this season. Seven of their eight wins this year are by one score, including the previous meeting in Philly.
That’s why you’ll want to grab Cowboys +3.5 (FanDuel) while it’s available above the hook, since it’s very easy to see even an Eagles win not covering that number.
I think Dallas can win too and will sprinkle part of the bet on the +155 moneyline (ESPN Bet), but will put more of the bet on +3.5 as long as it’s available above the key number.
Pick: Cowboys +3.5 and +155 ML
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Falcons vs Saints Props
I can’t believe we’ve really reached a world where Tyler Shough is an actual favorite in his third NFL start — and the Saints appear to be the sharp side!
That feels like a bit of an overreaction to Michael Penix and Drake London being out for Atlanta, but Kirk Cousins is 2–9 ATS against opponents coming off a bye week, so I’ll stay away from a side.
I don’t know who wins and honestly don’t care, but I do know Cousins loves to throw to his tight ends, and he may not have much choice with Atlanta’s receiving room all in the hospital.
Kyle Pitts had a career-best nine receptions in his own game with Cousins earlier this season. Drake London was out that one as well, so we’ve seen the script! This isn’t even really a matchup play — it’s just treating Pitts like Cousins’ WR1 with no other options.
Pitts has two other games of 7+ catches this season, so I’ll start the escalator there: 7+ receptions at +280, eight for +513, and nine for +960, all at DraftKings.
Pick: Kyle Pitts 7+ Receptions
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Buccaneers vs Rams Spread Pick
The Rams are getting a lot of talk as the best team in the NFL, but I’m not ready to sell high on LA just yet — maybe after this one, since I’m not sure books are quite capturing Tampa Bay’s true rating just yet.
The Bucs rank 13th in DVOA on the season but have been trending in the wrong direction, particularly on offense, where they rank just 19th in the last six weeks and fringe bottom 10 in passing.
The offense just hasn’t been healthy. Bucky Irving and Mike Evans remain out, and the offensive line is banged up and has struggled.
Tampa has gotten by with its defense, but this is a particularly bad matchup for Todd Bowles’ defense. Tampa is so good against the run that it invites opponents to pass, and MVP favorite Matthew Stafford could shred this pass defense.
The Rams call the most play-action in the league, and the Bucs rank in the bottom five in EPA per play defending that. Tampa also looks like it’ll be without CB Jamel Dean, a huge loss against wide receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams since he’s PFF’s №1 rated corner on the season.
The Rams continue to play a huge amount of 13 personnel, with one RB and three TEs, and that forces opponents to match heavier and put more linebackers on the field. That is a big matchup problem for the Bucs, who are especially weak at LB and defending the middle of the field.
So far this season, facing 2+ TE sets with four or fewer defensive backs on the field, Tampa Bay ranks dead last in the NFL at 9.0 yards per pass attempt — almost a first down every pass! The Bucs are also in the fringe of the bottom 10 in explosive pass plays allowed. Stafford might carve this defense up.
Remember our Terrance Ferguson props last week? He didn’t even see a target, but we might have been a game early. With Tyler Higbee now on IR, Ferguson should see an uptick in snaps and targets, so I’m running back his longest reception escalator too once it posts. This could be a breakout game for the rookie.
The Bills were -5.5 against the Bucs last week, so does it make sense that the Rams are -6.5, just a point more? LA’s offense is better than Buffalo’s, and its defense is way better.
I liked Buffalo last week but got spooked by what felt like a high line, and the Bills won comfortably by 12 points. The Rams are a better team, and though the Bucs are feisty, I think LA ends up winning comfortably.
Don’t be intimidated by the line. Grab Rams -6.5 (BetMGM) below the key number while it’s available.
Pick: Rams -6.5
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Browns vs Raiders Props: Maxx Crosby Sacks
We may not get too many chances to fade Shedeur Sanders if he’s as bad as everyone fears, so let’s talk about the right way to do it.
I already took under 37.5 on Hot Read with both defenses clearly at an advantage here. The Raiders rank 10th in Defensive DVOA over the last six weeks, even after the ugly showing against the Cowboys. Even so, Raiders -4 is a hilarious line against any team, let alone a Browns defense this good.
So is Shedeur Sanders really as bad as everyone fears? He might be.
Sanders will be the 18th Browns QB to make his first career start since the Browns franchise in 1999; the first 17 are winless, 0–17. He’s the 42nd Browns starting QB in that stretch.
Including preseason action, Sanders now has 59 dropbacks on 20 drives — already yikes — with an awful 31 pressures and nine sacks. That’s left a 53% pressure rate, a 29% sack-to-pressure ratio, and a 15% sack rate, all unimaginably horrendous numbers.
Sanders holds the ball far too long. He averaged almost four seconds to throw in the preseason and was at 3.2 seconds on Sunday in limited time. That’s just not going to work in the NFL.
With a line set at 28.5 attempts, that would imply at least five sacks for Sanders over a full game, and that honestly feels low.
Could we see an NFL sack record in this game? The record is 18 back in 1978 by the Packers and Chargers. Geno Smith has been sacked 4+ times in half his games, and Myles Garrett has four- and five-sack games in the last month.
Most defensive props don’t post until near kickoff, but some books like DraftKings post team sack totals like Over 2.5 or 3.5. I’d love to bet a Raiders defensive sack total Over 3.5 and take the escalator up from there.
Books also typically post individual sack lines. Maxx Crosby is the one reliable Raiders pass rusher, with at least one full sack in half his games this season, so I’d love to bet Crosby Over 0.5 sacks.
If you want to fade Shedeur Sanders because you think he’s terrible, you’ve got to be more aggressive than just a Raiders side or something like Browns 0-to-10 points at +210.
I’ll sprinkle a few options. Browns under 7.5 points at +440 (DraftKings) looks better than no touchdowns at +400 since that would probably take three field goals. Zero Browns points sits at +2800 too (bet365). And how about a goofy scrambling-around-backwards-oh-no-no-no Browns safety? You can bet that at +1700 (DraftKings).
You just know everyone will be talking about Shedeur Sanders all weekend, so we may as well have some fun with a few long-shot Haterade props.
Pick: Maxx Crosby Over 0.5 Sacks
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Week 13 Lookahead Pick: Chiefs vs Cowboys Spread
It’s a time-honored tradition to bet against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, so let’s start the holidays early. Since 2011, the Cowboys are an ugly 3–11 ATS on Thanksgiving, covering just 21% of the time.
Thanksgiving has typically been a great trends spot, and it’s usually good to back the favorites — as long as it’s not the Cowboys. All other favorites are 31–11 ATS (74%), and public favorites are even better at 79%. You can bet this will be a public spot for the Chiefs, either coming off a confidence-restoring win over the Colts or with their backs against the wall at 5–6.
The Chiefs are 5–5 but would be 10–0 if you flipped their results in one-score games, and all their wins are by 13+ points. Kansas City’s offense is better than Dallas’s, and the defense is way better.
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid just don’t lose games like this in a big holiday national TV spot against a beatable opponent.
It may feel odd grabbing Chiefs -3.5 (FanDuel) since Kansas City could lose to the Colts and the Cowboys could beat the Eagles, but would we really get that number under a field goal on Thanksgiving? Books would bleed Chiefs money, and I don’t think they want it.
The Chiefs are already -4 or -4.5 at some books, so grab Chiefs -3.5 while it’s there.
Pick: Chiefs -3.5
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Brandon's NFL Week 12 Betting Card
- Bengals +7 and +270 ML
- Tee Higgins 90+ Receiving Yards; Chase Brown Over 4.5 Receptions
- Lions -10
- Seahawks vs Titans Under 40.5
- Travis Kelce Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
- Jets Moneyline (+900)
- Cardinals +3 and +145 ML
- Cowboys +3.5 and +155 ML
- Kyle Pitts 7+ Receptions
- Rams -6.5
- Maxx Crosby Over 0.5 Sacks
NFL Week 13 Lookahead Pick
- Chiefs -3.5
