NFL Week 14 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Welcome to the home stretch. Five weeks to go in the regular season. Win totals are cashing, clinching scenarios are here and in Week 14 we have lots of weather impacting games.

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 14 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, December. 10, 11 a.m. ET.

The story of Week 14 is record-low totals. Between Patriots/Steelers and Jaguars/Browns, we could have the first duo of games closing at 31 or less in the same week since Week 13, 2005.

If you include the Texans/Jets total of 33, this could be the first week since Dec. 26, 1993 to have three games close with a total below 33. On that day, five games closed below 32.5.

In terms of history dating back to 1980, no NFL over/under has ever closed below 30. Three games, all on that same December 26, 1993 date, dipped below 30 during the week of action, but all three ended up closing at the 30 or higher mark by Sunday kickoff.

With such low totals this weekend, the wind and weather are becoming part of the reason. Track the up to the minute weather here.

+ Games with 10+ mph winds are 18-5-1 to the under this season, going under the total by 5.4 PPG.
+ Games with 10+ mph winds are 110-55-1 to the under in last three seasons and 191-126-1 since 2018. Over the past 20 years, these unders hit at a 57.2% rate.

Interestingly enough, NE/PIT doesn't have any wind. The last total to close under 33 with less than 10 mph winds was Steelers at the Browns back in 2005. Roethlisberger vs. Charlie Frye, a 41-0 PIT win.

The big story of the weekend is backup QBs. As of now, we are bracing for potentially nine backups to start. Here is what designates a backup QB.

If nine backups start this week, that would be the most in a non-Week 17 or Week 18 since Week 14 of the 2013 season — exactly 10 years ago this week, when we also had nine backups start.

Since the start of last season, backup QBs are 63-91 SU, but 83-67-4 ATS.

Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy are co-favorites to win MVP. They are the sixth and seventh different quarterbacks to be listed as the favorite to win the MVP award this season:

Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Prescott, Purdy

With Trevor Lawrence banged up, Jacksonville expects to start CJ Beathard this week. The Jaguars currently have a 10-game ATS road/neutral winning streak — which is the longest for any team over the last 20 years.

On Sunday Night Football, a total of 53 or higher would be the biggest over/under of the season so far.

+ We’ve had just 10 games close with a total of 50 or more this year. Unders are 8-2 in those games, including 26-12 to under last two seasons.
+ We’ve had just ten games close 50 or more for a total through 13 weeks, fewest since 2010 (6).

The Saints are 0-5 ATS at home this season (first 0-5 ATS home start for Saints since 1980). Only Washington also has zero ATS wins at home this season (0-5-1 ATS) and New Orleans has lost seven straight ATS at home dating back to last season.

• Saints haven’t lost seven straight home games ATS since 1979-80 seasons (lost eight straight ATS).
• Saints are 5-15 ATS at home since 2021, worst record in the NFL

Patriots enter Week 14 2-10 against the spread this season — the worst ATS mark through 12 weeks in Patriots franchise history. In 2023, New England is the least profitable team in the NFL against the spread, also going 11-1 to their team total under in their 12 games. Last season, they were 12-5 to their team total over.

This will be the 35th night game for the Jets and Giants since the 2018 season. They are a combined 4-30 SU, including 2-26 SU in their last 28 night games and 3-30 SU in their last 33 night games.

Since 2018, Jets and Giants are 1-15 SU at home in night games with their only win coming in Week 1 this season by the Jets.

• Patriots vs. Steelers under Belichick:
  11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS
  1-1 SU and 0-1-1 ATS without Brady
• Belichick is 5-3-1 ATS on the road against the Steelers
• Patriots are 2-10 ATS this season, worst record in the NFL.
  The Patriots haven’t started 2-9 ATS since 1981. In 1981, they started 2-9 ATS and ended 3-13 ATS. 2023 is the first time a Patriots team has ever started 2-10 ATS.
• Patriots are 4-15 SU, 3-16 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
  The Patriots have now lost five straight against the spread, the first time the Patriots have lost five straight ATS within the same season since losing six straight at the end of the 2007-08 Super Bowl campaign.
• Patriots have struggled vs. the best and done well against some of the bad teams.
  Since 2019, the Patriots are 16-23 SU, 14-23-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, second-worst ATS mark in the NFL just ahead of the Bears
  Since 2019, they are 19-10 SU, 16-13 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, including 10-10 ATS since 2020.
  In that same span, they are 10-23-1 ATS vs. teams that made playoffs previous season, third-worst mark in the NFL (SEA, CHI). When they face a team who didn’t make the playoffs, they are 24-21-1 ATS in that span.
• Patriots are the first team since 1938 to lose three straight games, allowing 10 or fewer points in each one (1938 Chicago Cardinals)
• Since 2020, Patriots are 13-17-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
• Between 2016-22, Patriots were 32-13 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, they are 0-5 ATS this season (lost 6 straight ATS).
• Teams to score 14 points or less in consecutive games are 164-130-9 1H ATS (55.8%) since 2012 – but this season, the trend has taken a turn. Those teams are 4-17 1H ATS.
  Week 14: NE, NYJ, LAC
• Teams after scoring 3 points or less in their previous game are 79-53-4 ATS (59.8%) last decade.
  Week 14: NE
• Teams after scoring 3 points or less in their previous game and listed as an underdog in their next game are 124-88-7 ATS (58.5%) last 20 years.
• Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS later in the season, 151-123-6 ATS since 2015
  Week 14: NE, ATL
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 176-122-6 ATS (59.1%) since 2018 & 39-28-2 ATS this season.
  Week 14: NE, LV, CAR, CHI, JAC, NYJ, CIN, TB, NYG

Bill Belichick

• Belichick in night games: 75-38 SU, 58-50-3 ATS in last 20 years – 5-11 ATS since 2020
  With Brady: 49-37-3 ATS (last 20 years)
  Without Brady w/ Patriots: 9-13 ATS (last 20 years)
  On the road at night: 28-22-1 ATS (last 20) and 3-9 ATS in last 12 spots
• Since Brady left, Belichick & NE are 27-36 SU, 26-36-1 ATS since 2020. Belichick without Tom Brady as head coach: 45-55 SU w/ NE, 37-45 SU w/ CLE, for a combined 82-100 SU.
• Since 2021, Belichick is 4-19 SU as an underdog (16-8 SU as a favorite). Between 2003-15, he was 25-22 SU as an underdog.
• Belichick ATS last 20 years by over/under
  Under 40: 36-15-1 ATS (69.2%)
  Under 42: 55-32-2 ATS (61.8%)
  Under 45: 96-67-5 ATS (57.1%)
  45+: 110-90-5 ATS (55%)
• NFL first half unders are now 93-70-3 in night games since 2021, including 25-20-1 on TNF and 31-19-1 on MNF in that span.
• Thursday home teams are just 31-35 SU, 25-41 ATS since 2020, including 22-36 ATS in night Thursday games (worst of any day of week for home teams at night).
  Since 2020, Thursday home teams at night 22-36 ATS. All other days of the week, 83-75-3 ATS.
• Bet home teams on Thursday night? Since 2020, they are only 29-29 SU. They are 94-65 SU on all other nights.

• The Steelers are 10-1 in their last 11 one-score games and 12-2 over their last 14 one-score games. Even dating back to 2021, Pittsburgh is 22-8-1 in one-score games.
• Steelers were the first team since 1933, when the NFL began tracking rushing and receiving statistics, to be out-gained in each of their first eight games and still have a winning record – they did it through ten games.
  Weeks 12 and 13 PIT out-gained their opponent in yards.
• Steelers had allowed 20 points or less in seven straight games. Pittsburgh had a streak of seven such games last year and they haven’t done it in eight straight since 2004.
  PIT after allowing 24 points or more under Tomlin: 49-32-1 ATS
• Since 2020, Steelers are 10-1 SU after allowing 24+ points.
• Steelers under Mike Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger: 37-23-3 ATS.
  Steelers under Tomlin without Big Ben or Pickett: 22-15-3 ATS
• Steelers are 31-48-1 1H ATS last 5 seasons under Tomlin, making him worst coach 1H ATS in that span.
• All it took was one game. Steelers put up 422 yards of offense in OC Eddie Faulkner’s first game.
  Matt Canada in Pittsburgh. 45 games. 0 games with 400 yards of offense. 2 games with 30 points.
  The Steelers played 45 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense. Their last game with 400+ yards prior to last week came in the Wild Card playoffs in 2020-21, the game before Canada was hired.
  45 games was the longest active streak in the NFL – longest streak since Rams in 2014-17 (46 games). They were sixth team last 20 years with this long of a streak.
• Teams to average fewer than 300 yds on the season and have 400+ yds in their previous game are 15-20-1 ATS in December or later and 6-13-1 ATS when playing at home.
• Over the last two seasons, Steelers are 15-7 SU/ATS w/ TJ Watt, 1-6 SU w/o him (2-4-1 ATS).
• Since T.J. Watt’s first game in 2017, Steelers are 67-44-2 SU, 59-52-2 ATS.
  They’ve played without him for just 11 games. Pittsburgh is 1-10 SU, 4-6-1 ATS in those games.
  Which means they are 65-34-2 SU, 54-46-1 ATS with Watt.
• As a favorite this season, Steelers are 3-2 ATS. Pittsburgh rarely covers as favorites in consecutive years. They were 4-2 ATS last year as favorites. Last b2b years above .500 ATS as favorites for Pittsburgh was in 2004-05.
• Tomlin is 18-11-1 SU at home on short rest vs. just 7-8 SU on the road on short rest.
• Since merger in 1970, Steelers are 54-20 SU at home in night games, including 17-6 SU, 12-10-1 ATS since 2014.
  Steelers have won six straight night games SU overall
  Steelers 3-0 SU/ATS at home at night last two seasons
• Trubisky is 31-26 SU, 27-27-3 ATS in his career.
  Trubisky has made 5 starts for Steelers – 2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS
  Trubisky is 0-2 SU at home in Pittsburgh for the Steelers
  Trubisky is 3-10-2 ATS in his last 15 home starts for the Steelers and Bears.
  Trubisky has actually started 12 night games in his career – 5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS – he’s lost three straight night games SU and ATS.
• Steelers are going to a backup QB for the 26th time in the last decade this week.
  They are 14-10-1 SU/ATS in those games – If you remove the 14 games they had a backup start in 2019, they are 6-4-1 SU, 5-5-1 ATS with a backup last decade.
  Backup QBs: Trubisky, Rudolph, Hodges, Landry Jones, Vick
  With a backup QB at home: 9-4-1 SU, 7-6-1 ATS last decade
• Good teams who score fewer than 14 points are good bets the following week. Teams who are over .500 SU and off scoring fewer than 14 points are 104-78-6 ATS (57.1%) last ten years.
  Week 14: PIT
• Over .500 SU teams with a negative average SU point differential in November or later are 146-176-13 ATS (45.3%) last 20 years.
  Week 14: PIT
• Steelers play back-to-back home games this week and last. Under Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 29-17-2 ATS playing on a homestand (two or more consecutive home games) – best of any head coach in the last 20 years.
• Will Levis became the seventh QB to face the Steelers in Pittsburgh in his first season in a night game. Those seven QBs are 0-7 SU: Levis, Fields, Clausen, Flacco, John Beck, Derek Anderson, Eric Zeier.
  QBs playing in Pittsburgh in their first season are 8-38 SU since 1950, including 1-21 SU in the last 20 years. 2016 Dak Prescott is the only winner.

• With Trevor Lawrence sidelined, the Jaguars have to go to a backup QB this week.
  This will be the first time since the end of the 2020 season that the Jaguars have to go to a backup QB.
  Dating back to 2019, the Jags have lost 9 consecutive games SU with a backup (5-4 ATS)
  Since 2019, last 5 years, Jaguars are 10-6 ATS with a backup QB: Mike Glennon, Jake Luton and Gardner Minshew
• Jaguars home/road splits this season:
  Home: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS
  Away/Neutral: 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS
• Jaguars are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. teams above .500 SU. Over the last two seasons
• Jaguars recent road/neutral success.
  Jacksonville has covered the spread in 10 straight road or neutral games, their longest away from home ATS winning streak in franchise history.
  In the last 20 years, the longest road/neutral ATS streak was 9 done by five different teams, most recently Chiefs in 2016-17 – that streak now belongs to the Jaguars.
  Road/Neutral ATS Streak last 20 yrs
  2022-23 JAC 10
  2015-16 CIN 9
  2016-17 KC 9
  2015-16 OAK 9
  2015-16 MIN 9
  2007-08 NYG 9
• Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite.
  Underdog: 32-24 ATS (7-2 ATS last 9 games)
  Favorite: 29-32 ATS
• Pederson ATS in his career: 61-56 ATS
  Sept-Nov: 37-40 ATS
  Dec on: 24-16 ATS
• Betting teams after a loss as a big favorite has been a good spot. Teams off a loss as a 7-pt favorite or higher are 55.5% ATS next week last 20 years and 43-35-1 ATS since 2018.
  Week 14: JAC

• With Deshaun Watson now gone for the season with shoulder surgery, another week of a backup QB in Cleveland.
  Browns will start a backup QB for the 57th time in the last decade this week. They are 19-38 SU, 26-30-1 ATS in those games.
  Browns have actually done a good job in these games lately going 4-7 SU and 6-4-1 ATS in their last 11 games with a backup.
  Under Stefanski, Browns are 8-12 SU, 10-9-1 ATS with a backup QB.
• Stefanski with Browns
  Favorite: 23-10 SU, 13-20 ATS
  Dog: 10-20 SU, 16-13-1 ATS
• Browns are 13-13-1 ATS after a loss under Stefanski.
  Browns are 12-20 SU, 13-19 ATS after a SU win under Stefanski
  Browns are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after a SU win.
• Browns are 12-11 SU, 8-15 ATS vs. AFC North under Kevin Stefanski. Of 146 head coaches last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is 140th.
  Stefanski is 21-18-1 ATS against non-AFC North teams.
• The Browns pass defense has been unreal.
  5th-fewest pass yds allowed thru 12 games since 1990.
  Their 81 1D allowed by pass thru 12 games is fewest for any team since 1990
• Browns rush offense since Nick Chubb’s injury. Since Week 3:
  Browns are 14th in NFL in rush EPA and 15th in rush success.
• Flacco career SU/ATS in Cleveland. 11 total games started. 9-2 SU, 8-2-1 ATS.
• Teams to travel from PST to EST have had 1H success going 109-69-3 1H ATS since 2017.
  WK14: CLE
• Tough to play off a party city. Last 5 years, teams on normal rest coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 99-137-7 ATS (41.9%).
  Week 14: DET, CLE, ATL
• Stefanski has done well after Browns defense has allowed a bunch of points.
  After 24 or more: 15-12-1 ATS (6-1 ATS this season)

• Rams scored 36 points last week vs. Browns.
  Rams after scoring 30 points under McVay: 32-13 SU, 21-22-2 ATS
  Since 2020: 11-7 SU, 7-11 ATS
• Matthew Stafford is 7-12-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season. Last 5 years, he is 24-39-2 2H ATS, the third-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of just Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert.
• Stafford can’t hold a lead.
  He’s 33-56-2 2H ATS after leading at half, including 9-19-1 2H ATS since 2019
  He’s 48-47-6 2H ATS when trailing HT.
• Stafford hasn’t finished above .500 ATS in a season since 2018 – he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, worst season since 2013. Stafford is 6-4-1 ATS this season.
• Stafford can’t beat good teams. He’s 33-66 SU and 37-60-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU – least profitable QB SU and ATS in this spot last 20 years.
  He is 10-9 SU and 7-12 ATS with Rams in this spot.
  When Stafford faces a team .500 SU or worse he is 58-37 SU and 48-43-4 ATS.
• Stafford is 18-21-2 ATS with Rams – second-least profitable QB for franchise last 20 years (Bulger)
• Beware of bad teams on winning streaks. Teams who are .500 SU or worse, who are on a win streak of 2 games or more are 202-225-11 ATS last 20 years.
  Week 14: LAR, ATL
• Sean McVay’s teams tend to perform better early in the season vs. late.
  Sept/Oct: 36-17 SU
  Nov. on: 37-30 SU
• McVay is 26-17-1 ATS vs. NFC West & 35-38-3 ATS vs. all other divisions
  ARI: 12-2-1 ATS | SEA: 10-5 ATS (22-7-1 ATS combined)
  SF: 4-10 ATS
• McVay is 13-5 SU, 11-5-2 ATS coaching in Eastern Time Zone.
  Last 20 years, no PST coach has performed better ATS than McVay in EST.
• How has McVay performed as an underdog? 13-24 SU, but 19-16-2 ATS (25-12 in a 6-pt teaser).
• Stafford is 29-73 SU as an underdog in his career, including 1-8 SU last two seasons.
  $100 bettor is down $2,546 last 20 years, worst in the NFL.
• Rams are 3-10 SU and 5-6-2 ATS in their last 13 road games dating back to last season.
• McVay biggest underdog of his career
  +16.5: 2022 at KC, L 26-10
  +7.5: 2023 vs. SF, L 30-23
  +7.5: 2022 at GB, L 24-12
• Bet “small, bad, road dogs” … teams to open as a dog of 7 points or less road/neutral, who won five games or less the previous year, are 356-253-10 ATS (58.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 14: LAR, DEN
• West coast teams traveling east has been a good omen lately.
  = West coast teams that travel east after a home game have performed well, going 91-65-4 ATS (58%) last ten years.
  WK14: LAR
  = PST teams have had success playing in EST recently, going 51-33-3 ATS since 2019.
  WK14: LAR
  = PST and MST teams have had success playing on the road in EST lately, they are 73-43-3 ATS since 2019 – over .500 ATS in all five seasons.
  WK14: LAR

• Most Consecutive Games Entering 4Q With Lead To Begin Season
  16, 1998 MIN, 15-1
  13, 2011 GB, 15-1
  12, 2023 BAL, 8-3
  12, 1998 DEN, 14-2
  10, 1984 MIA, 14-2
• Ravens' blown leads …
  This Season: Blew leads in all 3 losses, including 2 double-digit leads
  Since 2022 Season: 6 losses with a double-digit lead – T-most in NFL with Raiders.
  6: BAL, LV, 5: CHI, LAC
  Since 2021 Season: 8 losses with a double-digit lead – most in NFL (CHI has 7)
• Holding onto leads have been an issue for Baltimore.
  Over the last two seasons, the Ravens are 9-21 against the fourth quarter spread
• Ravens have lost Mark Andrews for the foreseeable future.
  Ravens are 58-34 SU when Andrews gets at least one target in a game. Baltimore is actually 5-2 SU without Andrews since he joined the team.
• Ravens are 9-1-2 on the first quarter moneyline this season and they are 18-7-5 1Q ML last two seasons.
• Harbaugh is 20 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and 2 games under .500 ATS as a favorite.
• Harbaugh is 156-108-9 1H ATS with $100 bettor up $3,992, most of any coach in NFL since 2005.
  With Lamar Jackson & Joe Flacco, Harbaugh is 144-101-9 1H ATS.
• Over the past three seasons, Lamar Jackson is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog but 12-18 ATS as a favorite, including 5-15 ATS when favored by more than 3 points.
• Jackson is 20-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog. In all other spots he is 21-30 ATS career.
• Jackson covers the 1H spread on the road/neutral, he’s 27-10-1 1H ATS and 21-17-1 1H ATS at home.
  Between 2021-23, he’s 20-15-1 1H ATS. From 2018-20, he was 28-12-1 1H ATS.
• When Lamar faces team under .500 SU, he’s 28-4 SU, 16-16 ATS.
• Fade good SU and ATS teams. In December or later, teams with a 70%+ win pct & 60%+ cover pct are 209-254-10 ATS (45.1%) last 20 years.
  Week 14: DET, BAL
• Lamar as 7 pt favorite or higher: 25-5 SU. He’s 16-3 SU at home, 9-2 SU on road.
• In Harbaugh’s career he is 49-9 SU, 22-35-1 ATS at home against opponents .500 SU or worse. Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in this spot since 2021 and 8-16 ATS since 2017.
  Of 141 coaches last 20 years, Harbaugh is second-worst ATS ahead of just Mike Shanahan.
• Lamar has faced the NFC in 18 games, he is 18-1 SU, 9-10 ATS. His one loss came vs. Giants last season.
  His .947 win pct is best by any QB against the opposing conference since the 1970 merger.
  Jackson vs. NFC: 18-1 SU, 9-10 ATS. He’s 37-21 SU, 32-26 ATS vs. AFC
• Jackson is 26-10 SU and 14-22 ATS as a home favorite. Of 216 QBs over the last 20 years, he is ranked 208th ATS as a home favorite.
  He’s just 11-17 ATS playing a home game at 1P ET
• John Harbaugh with extra time to prepare:
  10+ days: 25-8 SU, 19-12-2 ATS
  Week 1: 12-4 SU/ATS
  Combined: 37-12 SU, 31-16-2 ATS
• Lamar off a bye: 4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS (12+ days rest, incl. playoffs)
  Least profitable QBs off a bye last 20 years

1. Carson Palmer 3-9 ATS, 171. Cam Newton: 4-9 ATS, 170. P. Rivers: 6-11 ATS, 169. M. Hasselbeck: 4-8 ATS, 168. Andy Dalton: 3-7 ATS, 167. Lamar: 1-5 ATS
   With an ATS loss vs. LAR, he would be fourth-worst last 20 years

• Harbaugh off a bye: 14+ days
  Harbaugh: 11-6 ATS
  Lamar: 1-3 (excluding week 1)
• Fade great teams. In December or later, teams with a 70%+ win pct, 60%+ cover pct and a 10+ pt scoring margin on the season are 58-83-4 ATS (41.1%) last 20 years.
  Week 14: BAL, DAL

• Lions can go over their win total of 9.5 this week.
  Detroit is the only NFL team without double-digit win total in Wild Card era (since 1990) – their win total of 9.5 this year was their highest in WC era
• Tough to play off a party city. Last decade, teams to play on road, coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 61-97-6 ATS (38.6%).
  Week 14: DET
• Tough to play off a party city. Last five years, teams on normal rest coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 99-137-7 ATS (41.9%).
  Week 14: DET, CLE, ATL
• Fade good SU and ATS teams. In December or later, teams with a 70%+ win pct & 60%+ cover pct are 209-254-10 ATS (45.1%) last 20 years.
  Week 14: DET, BAL
• Lions are 8-4 ATS this season
  The Lions have started the season exactly 8-4 ATS the last three years.
• Jared Goff and the Lions will play 4 of their final 5 games in a dome, including all 4 after this week.
  at CHI, DEN, at MIN, at DAL, MIN
• Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor.
  Indoor: 31-16 ATS (21-8 ATS last 3 seasons)
  Outdoor: 34-34-2 ATS (25-20-1 ATS in Nov or earlier | 9-14-1 ATS in Dec/Jan)
• There is supposed to be massive winds in Chicago Sunday. Goff is 4-6 ATS in his career with 10+ MPH winds.
• Goff is 9-4 ATS in games not in EST with Lions, he was 25-31-2 ATS in that spot with Rams.
• Lions are -1000 to win the NFC North. DET was +135 to win division entering season – shortest division odds for DET last 20 years – Lions were favored to win NFC North in preseason for 1st time since current iteration of division in 2002. Last time they had best odds for division team was 1992
• Goff is 20-8-1 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
• Goff is most profitable QB ATS over last 5 years (47-27-1 ATS, +$1,659).
• Lions are 31-15 ATS (67.4%) since the start of the 2021 season, most profitable team ATS in the NFL ($1,325).
  Lions are 2 wins away from 10 ATS wins in three straight seasons (8-4 ATS this year). Prior to this stretch, Lions had one 10-win ATS season (2010) since 1995.
  Lions are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
• Goff is 20-10 ATS at home since 2020, third-most profitable QB in the NFL
  Goff on the road since 2020: 17-12 ATS (7th-most profitable QB)
• Goff went 383 pass attempts without an interception before throwing one in Week 2 – the third-longest streak in NFL history behind Aaron Rodgers (402) and Tom Brady (399).
  In 2023, he is +2 units betting his yes INT prop.
  If you bet on Goff to throw an INT in every game last season, you would have been down 7.3U (most of any QB).
• Lions have played four games as road favorites this season: 4-0 SU/ATS, covering by 6 PPG. Last time DET played fives games or more in a season as a road favorite was 2013.
• In Goff’s career, he is 24-15-1 ATS vs. division opponents – 10th of 251 QBs last 20 years.
  With the Lions, he’s 9-6 SU, 11-4 ATS vs. NFC North
  Most profitable QBs ATS in Division vs. NFC North last 20 years

1. Rodgers, 2. Goff, 3. Brad Johnson

• Since start of last season, Bears are 7-22 SU .. 4-3 SU at night, 3-19 SU not at night.
• Fields in night games: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS | all other times: 4-21 SU, 7-17-1 ATS
• Bears are 7-5 to the over this year (T-third best mark in NFL) and 17-12 to the over since start of last season, second best mark in the NFL. (Lions are 17-11)
• Bears haven’t won consecutive games SU since Jan. 2, 2022.
• The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons, going a pathetic 7-20-1 ATS vs the Lions, Packers and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,333 – that is the least profitable team vs. their own division in the NFL in that span.
  CHI is 20-30-1 ATS vs. other divisions since 2019
• Fields on bye: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS
• Fields on extended rest: 2-8 SU, 5-5 ATS
• Eberflus on bye: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS
• Eberflus on extended rest: 2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS
• Fields is 7-26 SU, 11-21-1 ATS in his career.
  Min. 20 starts, lowest ATS win pct last 20 years

1. Colt McCoy 12-23-1 ATS, 123. Fields, 122. Bruce Gradkowski 7-13-1 ATS

• Fields 3-10 SU, 4-9 ATS vs. NFC North
• Fields is 13-19-1 1H ATS in his career.
  Since he was drafted in 2021, only Tom Brady, Kyler Murray, Desmond Ridder, Kenny Pickett and Mac Jones have been worse 1H ATS.
• When Bears opponents score more than 20 points vs. a Justin Fields-Bears team, they are 21-0 SU. All 7 Fields wins have come with opponents scoring 20 points or less.
• Bears haven’t gone over their win total since 2018 – they are 2-9-1 to the under since 2011
• The Bears have never had 4,000 yard passer. It's been 14 straight seasons without QB starting every game and they've have just one Pro Bowl QB since 1985 (Mitchell Trubisky, 2018)
• Bears face three dome teams in December or later: DET, ARI, ATL
  CHI is 20-9-2 ATS in freezing temperatures at home last 20 years (best in NFL)
• Bears have been very streak at home since 2021.
  Won last two, lost 10 straight, won three straight, lost five straight, won two straight ←- start of 2021
• Bears haven’t won three straight home games SU in the same season since December 2019.
• Over the last 20 years, Bears are 66-83-4 ATS (43.9%) after a SU win. Under Matt Eberflus, Bears are 1-5 SU/ATS after a win, failing to cover the spread by 4.83 PPG.
  Bears are 30-47-1 ATS as a dog after a SU win last 20 years
• Chicago is 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall and they are 27-50-2 ATS over the last five seasons – worst mark in the NFL
• Teams listed as home dogs off extended rest have struggled recently. Home dogs off eight days rest or more are 7-12 ATS this season and 42-59-2 ATS in the last decade.
  Week 14: CHI, LV, NYG
• Divisional games in December or later have had an edge to the under when played in the early window of games (1p ET). Divisional games played at 1p ET in Dec. or later are 220-168-9 (56.7%) last 20 years.
  Week 14: TB/ATL, DET/CHI, CAR/NO

• Panthers went under their win total in Week 12 and were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 13. After going over their win total last year, Carolina has still not eclipsed their win total in consecutive years since 2002-03.
  Since 2002, there have been 33 instances of a team drafting a quarterback in the top 10 who then went on to start at least eight games as a rookie, and those teams combined to go 11-19-2 (36.7%) toward their win-total over (with Texans now pending). Over the past 10 years, they’ve been even worse, going just 5-12-2 (29.4%).
• Panthers are 1 of 2 teams to be listed as underdogs in all of their games so far this season – with the Cardinals.
• Panthers are 8-4 against first quarter spread this season, including 4-3 1Q ATS on the road. Panthers are 17-7 1Q ATS the past three seasons.
• Bryce Young is 1-10 SU so far this season. Since 2000, No. 1 overall QB picks are 63-129-2 SU in their first season.
• Panthers have really struggled on the road recently.
  Panthers are 0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS on the road this season, failing to cover the spread by 4.75 PPG and losing by 11 PPG.
  Worst SU this season: CAR 0-7 ATS, TEN 0-6
  Worst ATS this season: TEN 1-5 ATS, NYG 2-5 ATS, CAR 2-5 ATS
  Panthers are 9-15 ATS last 3 seasons, tied for worst mark in the NFL with CHI and LV

Highest Team O/U – Draft QB 1st Overall in WC Era (since 1990)
1992 Giants/Dave Brown – 9 (Supplemental Draft) (6-10 SU)
2023 Panthers/Bryce Young – 7.5 (1-10 SU)
2016 Rams/Jared Goff – 7.5 (4-12 SU)

• Panthers recent history vs. Saints:
  Since 2016: 5-11 SU and 8-7-1 ATS
  Haven’t gone winless ATS vs Saints since 2016-2017 season
• On road vs. NO: In same span, CAR is 2-6 SU in the Superdome and 5-3 ATS
• Bryce vs. NFC South: 0-3 SU and 1-1-1 ATS
• Panthers recently vs. NFC South:
  Since 2019, Panthers are 8-19 SU and 12-14 ATS vs NFC South
  Home: 4-9 SU and 4-8-1 ATS
  Road/Neutral: 4-10 SU and 5-8-1 ATS
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 176-122-6 ATS (59.1%) since 2018 & 39-28-2 ATS this season.
  Week 14: NE, LV, CAR, CHI, JAC, NYJ, CIN, TB, NYG
• Divisional games in December or later have had an edge to the under when played in the early window of games (1p ET). Divisional games played at 1p ET in Dec. or later are 220-168-9 (56.7%) last 20 years.
  Week 14: TB/ATL, DET/CHI, CAR/NO
• Teams off a division loss, facing a division foe again are 293-254-17. $100 bettor up $2,342 last 20 years.
  Week 14: CAR
• Teams at the end of a road trip tend to fall off a bit. On the third game or later of a road trip, teams are 44-65 SU in the last 20 years, including 21-54 SU in that spot as an underdog.
  Week 14: CAR

• Saints have four straight ATS. First time losing 4 straight since 2018-19, when they lost 7 straight between two seasons.
  Saints are 0-5 ATS at home this season (1st 0-5 ATS home start for Saints since 1980). Only Washington has 0 ATS wins at home this season (0-5-1 ATS) and NO has lost 7 straight ATS at home dating back to last season
  Saints haven’t lost 7 straight home games ATS since 1979-80 seasons (lost 8 straight ATS). 1980 is the Saints last 0-5 ATS home start, too (started 0-6 ATS at home).
• Saints are 5-15 ATS at home since 2021, worst record in the NFL
• Road Warriors. Here are the Saints ML record over the past few seasons, home vs. road.
  Last 3: Home: 8-12 SU | Road: 12-12 SU
  Last 5: Home: 21-18 SU | Road: 25-15 SU
• Allen-coached teams are just 13-21-1 ATS vs. teams who are under .500 SU on the season and just 4-13-1 ATS vs. teams who are over .500 SU on the season. Allen is under .500 ATS vs. teams who are over .500 SU in all five of his seasons as a head coach.
• In his career, Dennis Allen is 20-45 SU. His 30.8% win pct is eighth-worst among all head coaches in the Wild Card era.
• Dennis Allen is a bit better with some prep.
  Short rest: 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS
  Normal rest: 10-28 SU, 12-26 ATS
  Extended rest + Week 1: 9-9 SU, 9-7-2 ATS
  He’s 11-36 SU, 14-33 ATS on short or normal rest as a head coach
• Allen is 23-40-2 ATS in his career as a coach.
  Allen’s 23-40-2 ATS mark is third-worst for any coach last 20 years:

1. Jon Gruden, 148. Mike Shanahan, 147. Dennis Allen

• Allen is 5-14-2 ATS vs. divisional opponents in his career.
  4-7-1 ATS with Raiders
  1-7-1 ATS with Saints
  His 5-14-2 ATS mark is dead last of 147 coaches in profitability last 20 years and among 118 coaches to coach 20+ divisional games since 1990, Allen’s 26.3% ATS win pct is worst of all 118 coaches.

• In games where Carr is a favorite or a small underdog, his teams have struggled.
  As favorite or underdog of 3 or less: 36-52-3 ATS
  Dog of more than 3 points: 34-30 ATS
• Derek Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime now for the fifth time in his career this year, and is still struggling to cover the spread. 26-34-2 ATS in those previous 4 seasons and 2-9-1 ATS in 2023 with Saints.
  15: 8-8 ATS, 17: 5-8-2 ATS, 18: 6-10 ATS, 22: 7-8 ATS, 23: 2-9-1 ATS
• Saints were listed as home underdogs against the Lions, a better spot for Derek Carr.
  Favorite: 19-37-2 ATS (worst of all QBs last 20 years)
  Underdog: 51-45-1 ATS
• Carr was 18-29-1 ATS as a favorite with the Raiders, with a $100 bettor down $1,182. Now with the Saints he is 1-8-1 ATS as a favorite.
  Carr hasn’t had a year above .500 ATS as a favorite since 2016
• Carr is 22-36-2 ATS on the road/neutral since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (123 of 123 QBs). He’s 22-25-1 ATS at home in that span.
• Superdome isn’t scary anymore. NO is 8-12 SU at home last three seasons – only three teams have fewer SU wins than that (HOU, ARI, CHI).
• Carr is facing a defense allowing 21 PPG or more on the season with the Panthers – he is 33-57-3 ATS in games vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or more. Of the 261 QBs in Bet Labs database over the last 20 years, Carr is the least profitable ATS in this spot.
• Derek Carr covers vs. good defenses and tends to lose ATS vs. bad defenses. Based on how many PPG opposing defenses give up against Carr:
  Fewer than 21 PPG: 31-21 ATS
  21 PPG or more: 33-57-3 ATS
• Carr is 8-26-2 ATS when favored by 3 points or more, including 1-14-1 ATS in his last 16 games in this spot. Since 2021, he’s 1-11-1 ATS in this spot.
• Have to see where the line closes, but Winston has been a tough bet as an underdog.
  Favorite: 15-13 SU (8-19-1 ATS)
  Dog: 19-33 SU (26-23-3 ATS)
• Winston’s 8-19-1 ATS mark as a favorite makes him the eighth-least profitable of 213 QBs over the last 20 years.

• Baker Mayfield is 23-21 ATS as an underdog and 13-25-1 ATS as a favorite
• Baker has been an under machine since start of last year, 15-7 in that span, including 12-5 in his last 17 starts.
• Baker Mayfield is 36-46-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,188 (276th of 283 QBs in the last 20 years).
• Baker as a favorite and underdog vs. divisional opponents
  15-13 SU, 11-17 ATS total
  Favorite: 9-5 SU, 3-11 ATS
  Dog: 6-8 SU, 8-6 ATS
• Bucs had the longest ATS road losing streak in the NFL entering the season (6 games) They then covered 5 straight road games to begin the season before failing to cover at IND
  Bucs were 1 of 2 teams undefeated ATS on the road this season: Jaguars are now the only
  Bucs haven’t started 5-0 ATS on the road since 2012 (TB started 6-0 ATS on road)
• Bowles in his career as HC is horrible SU as a dog, 14-42 SU and 12-40 in last 5 seasons.
  2023: 2-6 SU
  2022: 0-4 SU
  2018: 3-10 SU
  2017: 4-11 SU
  2016: 3-9 SU
• Todd Bowles is one of the worst coaches in the NFL as an underdog.
  14-42 SU, 23-30-3 ATS as an underdog (25-16 SU as a favorite)
  The Year After Tom Brady
  = In 2023, Bucs win total is 6.5. They are 5-7 SU currently.
  = In 2020, Patriots went 7-9. Under 9 win total.
• Divisional games in December or later have had an edge to the under when played in the early window of games (1p ET). Divisional games played at 1p ET in Dec. or later are 220-168-9 (56.7%) last 20 years.
  Week 14: TB/ATL, DET/CHI, CAR/NO

• Falcons have won 2 in a row – their second winning streak of the season (started 2-0 SU).
  Atlanta is 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS on a 2+ game win streak under Arthur Smith
• Falcons are 4-8 ATS this season, tied for the fourth-worst record in the NFL with Bills behind the Patriots, Saints, Panthers.
• The seesaw QB battle race in Atlanta is back to Desmond Ridder (ranks min. 50 QB plays; of 49 QBs)
  Ridder: 37th EPA/play, 20th success rate, 30th comp%
  Heinicke: 21st EPA/play, 33rd success rate, 43rd comp%
• Falcons are 4-6-2 on the first half moneyline this season
• Falcons are 5-12-4 1H ML, 5-16 1H ATS in their last 21 games.
  Their 9-20 1H ATS last two seasons is the worst in NFL (Colts also 9-20 but $10 less)
  After starting the season 0-6 1H ATS and 1-8 1H ATS, Falcons are 3-0 1H SU/ATS in their last 3 games.
• Ridder is 3-9-2 straight up and 3-11 against the first half spread in his career. Falcons are failing to cover 1H spread by 4.57 PPG with Ridder at QB.
  1H points under Ridder: 3, 9, 7, 10, 14, 3, 3, 0, 7, 10, 10, 3, 14, 10
  Dating back to college, Ridder is 3-13 1H ATS in his last 16 starts.
• Falcons have struggled ATS recently.
  They are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games overall dating back to last season.
  3-7 ATS last 10 games.
• Arthur Smith teams tend to fade late.
  Sept-Oct: 11-12 ATS
  Nov. on: 8-14-1 ATS
  Smith is 6-6 ATS in first four games of the season – his teams are 13-20-1 ATS in game 5 forward.
• When Falcons return home off a road/neutral game, they are 4-11 ATS under Arthur Smith, including 1-6 ATS as a home favorite.
• Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS later in the season, 151-123-6 ATS since 2015
  Week 14: NE, ATL
• Tough to play off a party city. Last 5 years, teams on normal rest coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 99-137-7 ATS (41.9%).
  Week 14: DET, CLE, ATL
• Beware of bad teams on winning streaks. Teams who are .500 SU or worse, who are on a win streak of 2 games or more are 202-225-11 ATS last 20 years.
  Week 14: LAR, ATL
• Arthur Smith is 11-11 SU, 7-15 ATS at home as a head coach (9-15 SU, 12-11-1 ATS road/neutral)
  Worst Falcons HC ATS at home last 20 years
• The Falcons lost at home in Week 6 vs. Commanders breaking Desmond Ridder’s streak of 31 consecutive wins at home in college and pros (32-1 SU, 20-12 ATS).
  On the road/neutral, Ridder has been much worse.
  NFL: 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS
  CFB: 15-4 SU, 9-10 ATS (3-2 SU/ATS neutral)
  Total: 17-9 SU, 12-14 ATS
• Falcons are 5-12-1 ATS after a SU win under Arthur Smith – 1-4 ATS this season.
  Ranks 133rd of 143 coaches last 20 years and ranks dead last of 49 coaches since he was hired in 2021.
• Falcons continue their journey have playing zero games this season with a positive rest differential vs. their opponent.
  Played on road before game in London (Wk 3, 4) – they lost at Lions.
  7 of last 11 games on the road – they are 3-3 SU in this stretch.
  3 of last 4 games are on the road.
• Desmond Ridder is 5-0 ATS vs. NFC South and 1-8 ATS vs. all other divisions.
  Most Profitable NFC South QBs ATS in Division Last 20 Years

1. Delhomme (21-12-1), 2. Taysom Hill (5-0 ATS), 3. Ridder (5-0 ATS)

• Falcons have had the lead at the half on the road with Ridder one time (last week). They are 1-5-1 1H ML.

Ridder Home/Road NFL Career
Home Road/Neutral
W-L 6-1 2-5
ATS 3-4 3-4
Pass Rtg 89.1 75.9
TD-INT 8-6 2-2
Y/A 7.3 6
Comp% 66.8 59.6

• Colts went over their preseason win total of 6.5 last week. Their first win total over since 2020.
• Colts are 10-2 to the team total over – most team total overs by any team this season. 1 of 3 teams with 9+ team total overs this season: IND, CLE, DAL
  Colts went 5-12 team total overs last season
• Still Minshew time in Indy. Minshew is 7-11 SU, 8-10 ATS in “toss up” games – a spread of 4 or less
• Colts got Jonathan Taylor back in the mix a bit, but he is now sidelined for a few weeks.
  Colts when Taylor gets 10+ carries: 24-19-1 SU
  Fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play: 7-12 SU
• Minshew has now won consecutive games SU within the same season for the first time since October. 2019. This is Minshew’s first four-game SU win streak in his career. He had never won three straight prior to this.
• Colts are 5-3 SU playing a backup QB in Minshew this year. Between 2017-22, IND was 4-14 SU with a backup.
  Colts QBs have struggled in the back up role. They are 9-17 SU (14-12 ATS) since 2017.
  Colts backup 2017-22: 4-14 SU, 8-10 ATS
  In 2023: 5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS
• When Minshew’s opponent scores more than 20 points, he is now 2-16 SU after beating the Titans last week.
• Minshew is 8-11 SU when he throws at least two passing TDs in a game in his career.
• Minshew has made five starts where his opponent is on short rest since 2020 and his teams are 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS. Overall he is 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS in this spot.
• Colts had the fourth-worst Super Bowl odds of any team at 100-1 entering the season (ARI, TB, HOU, IND).
  Their third time at 100-1 or higher since 2000 (2023, 2017, 2012).
  Not to mention, their win total of 6.5 was their lowest since 2012.
  Colts are 7-5 SU this year entering Week 14.
• Minshew as favorite vs. underdog
  Favorite: 7-4 SU/ATS
  Underdog: 6-15 SU, 9-12 ATS
• Minshew as a road favorite: 4-0 SU/ATS. Two games with Colts, one with Eagles, one with Jaguars.

• Jake Browning gets the start again for the Bengals with Joe Burrow out for the season.
  Browning got the big upset win over Jacksonville last week and its worth noting Zac Taylor has done this before. In 2020, CIN upset Steelers as 14.5 pt dogs without Burrow and then came back the next week and won again without Joe, beating the Texans as underdogs.
• Zac Taylor with and without Joe Burrow
  With: 34-24-1 SU, 36-22-1 ATS
  Without: 5-20 SU, 11-14 ATS
• Entering the season, this Cincinnati season had more expectations on it than most.
  Bengals had a win total of 11.5 in the preseason. Their first double-digit win total since 1989 (ends second-longest drought w/o double-digit win total in NFL – DET).
• During Burrow’s tenure, Bengals have went to a backup QB in starts with Ryan Finley and Brandon Allen and now Jake Browning. They’ve gone 3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS. Burrow is 36-22-1 ATS in his career.
  Since he was drafted, Burrow is the second most profitable QB ATS in the NFL behind only Goff
• Bengals allowed 31 points to the Jaguars last week. After Cincinnati allows 30 points or more in their previous game under Zac Taylor, they are 11-7 ATS, including 19-14-1 ATS after allowing 24 points or more.
• Bengals upset the Jaguars as 10 pt dogs last week.
  Teams off an upset, who are listed as dogs again and playing on short rest, are 43-70-4 ATS (38.1%) last 20 years.

• Last rookie HC and QB to make it to the playoffs? Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck with Colts in 2012.
• Houston Texans went over their preseason win total of 6.5 last week. Their first win total over since 2019.
  Since 2002, there have 33 instances of a team drafting a quarterback in the top 10 who then went on to start at least eight games as a rookie, and those teams combined to go 12-19-2 (38.7%) toward their win-total over. Over the past 10 years, they’ve been even worse, going just 5-12-2 (29.4%).
• CJ Stroud currently leads the NFL in passing yards per game at 295. Rookies to lead the NFL in passing yards per game in NFL History – minimum 75 pct of team games played – Davey O’Brien – 120.4 in 1939 & Sammy Baugh – 102.5 in 1937
• Stroud is the first NFL quarterback from Ohio State to eclipse 3,000 passing yards in a season. The previous high was Mike Tomczak with 2,767 yards (16 games) in 1996.
• Most pass yards through teams first 12 games, QBs in first season
  3,596 – Andrew Luck, 2012 (17 TD, 16 INT)
  3,540 – CJ Stroud, 2023 (20 TD, 5 INT)
  Of the 47 QBs with 2,000+ pass yds thru 12 games on that list, Stroud has second-most pass TD since 1960 (Herbert), third-highest passer rating and T-highest Y/A with Y.A. Tittle.
• Texans are up to 7 SU wins this season, that is their most in a year in the last four seasons.
  2023: 7-5 SU | 2020-22: 11-38-1 SU
• Stroud has made 12 starts in his NFL career. He’s 5-2 ATS as an underdog and 1-4 ATS as a favorite.
  He’s excelled in the first half, going 8-4 1H ATS this season.
  In the 1H, Stroud is 6-1 ATS as a dog, 2-3 ATS as a favorite
• Stroud in rhythm. Texans don’t play in primetime this season – 16 of 17 games all starting at 1pm EST, including remainder of games prior to Week 18.

• Jets have had bad offensive struggles this season which had led to Zach Wilson getting benched and Tim Boyle getting cut.
  Jets as a team have 13 TD in 12 games, including 10 offensive TD.
  10 offensive TDs through 12 games since 1978: 1991 Colts, 1992 Seahawks, 1993 Bengals, 2023 Jets
• Jets are 37-for-160 on third downs (24.1%). Through 12 games, that is the worst 3D% in the Wild Card era.
• Zach Wilson has 946 pass attempts in his career and 21 TD passes (2.2% TD pass pct).
  No QB in the Super Bowl era has thrown that many pass attempts with that low a TD pass pct. Lowest all-time minimum 500 attempts? Kenny Pickett at 1.8%.
• Saleh as home dog: 6-14 SU, 8-12 ATS (2-2 SU/ATS as a favorite)
  Home dog vs. non-AFC East team: 3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS
• Jets have three wins with Zach Wilson as the starting QB this season. All three wins have required a fourth quarter comeback from Wilson and the Jets.
  Wilson trails only Russell Wilson for the most 4Q comebacks in the NFL this season.
• Fewest SU wins, teams with win total of 8.5 or more: Jets with 4
• Saleh and the Jets have struggled to win against good offensive teams.
  20 PPG or higher: 8-21 SU
  19.9 PPG or less: 6-8 SU
• With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets start a “backup QB” for the rest of the season. Jets have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup QB. They are 6-32 SU, 13-24-1 ATS over the last decade when starting a backup QB.
• Jets are +1800 to make the playoffs right now. Jets haven’t made playoffs in 12 seasons – longest drought in NFL.

Longest Active Playoff Drought 4 Major Sports
12 – Jets
12 – Sabres

• Are the Jets the biggest flop ever? The Jets were 150-1 to win it all entering last season. They entered this year at 18-1. That big of a jump into inside 20-1 odds year-to-year has only been done three other times.
  All four teams are a combined 27-33 SU, 24-34-3 ATS

Biggest SB Moves Year-to-Year to Inside 20-1 Odds Since Merger
1979 to 1980 WAS 300-1 to 8-1 (+29,200). 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, Miss
1999 to 2000 STL 150-1 to 3-1 (+14,700). 10-6 SU, 6-10-1 ATS, L WC
1983 to 1984 NO 150-1 to 8-1 (+14,200). 7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, Miss
2022 to 2023 NYJ 150-1 to 18-1 (+13,200). 4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS

• Jets lost 5 straight ATS. Teams on ATS losing streaks of five-plus games are 90-64-4 ATS (58.4%) last 20 years.
  Week 14: NE, NYJ
• Teams to score 14 points or less in consecutive games are 164-130-9 1H ATS (55.8%) since 2012 – but this season, the trend has taken a turn. Those teams are 4-17 1H ATS.
  Week 14: NE, NYJ, LAC
• Beware of the first road game off a long homestand. Road favorites coming off three-straight home games are 26-44-1 ATS last 20 years.
  Week 14: HOU

• Geno Smith is 22-17-2 ATS as a dog, but only 10-13 ATS as a favorite.
• Geno has performed well off a loss. He’s 21-15 ATS. After a SU win, he’s only 9-13-2 ATS.
• Pete Carroll teams usually start slow before they get going…
  Carroll in Weeks 1 & 2: 11-16-1 ATS
  Carroll in Week 3 on: 112-94-7 ATS
• Pete Carroll is 55-40-3 ATS as an underdog. Carroll has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog in seven straight years leading up to this season (3-3 in 2023)
• When Carroll is on the road vs. a team who is over .500 SU, they are 27-20-1 ATS, including 8-7-1 ATS in EST game.
• Geno has started 13 games in his career on extended rest and his teams are just 4-9 SU, losing 9 of their last 11 starts.
• Recently, Pete Caroll has also struggled with extended rest. Since 2020, the Seahawks are 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in this spot.
• Since 2019, Carroll is 12-18 ATS vs. NFC West, third-worst coach vs. his own division in that span (Nagy, Stefanski, Carroll).
  He hasn’t had a 3-game ATS win streak vs. NFC West since December 2018. Streak continues after failing to cover vs 49ers
  Seahawks are 2-2 ATS vs. NFC West this season. They haven’t finished above .500 ATS vs. NFC West since 2014.
  Least Profitable Coaches ATS vs. Own Division at Home Since 2017:

1. John Harbaugh: 6-14 ATS, 75. Carroll: 8-14 ATS, 74. Kingsbury: 3-8 ATS

• Geno has faced the 49ers three times in his career and he is 0-4 SU/ATS, all three games coming with the Seahawks.
  49ers are Geno’s least profitable opponent ATS – he’s failing to cover the spread by 9 PPG
  53 QBs have faced Kyle Shanahan, his 3-0 ATS record vs. Geno Smith is best of all 53.
• Biggest Underdog for Pete Carroll with Seahawks
  +13.5: 2011 at PIT, L 24-0
  +11: 2011 at DAL, L 23-13
  +11: 2010 at NO, L 34-19
  +10.5: 2022 at KC, L 24-10
  Carroll has been a dog of eight or more points 11 times in his career with Seahawks. He is 5-6 ATS and 1-3 in his last four games in this spot (3 losses all last season)
• Rest tends to help losing streaks. Teams on extended rest (8 days or more) on a 3-game losing streak or more, are 135-107-4 ATS last 20 years.
  Week 14: SEA

• Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy are co-favorites to win MVP. They are the sixth and seventh different QB to be listed as the favorite to win the MVP award already this season.
  Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy
• 49ers can clinch a playoff spot with:
  1 Win and GB loss OR
  2 Win and MIN loss
• When their stars are healthy. When Deebo and CMC are starting, 49ers are 17-2 SU, 14-5 ATS
• 1 of 2 teams this season still favored in every game: KC, SF
• Purdy is 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS at home, just 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS on road.
• In games Christian McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 21-4 SU, 17-8 ATS. In those 25 games, McCaffrey has 30 total TDs.
• Most profitable 49ers QB ATS last 20 years: Garoppolo 35-25-1 ATS, Shaun Hill 12-4 ATS, Purdy 13-7 ATS
• 49ers are 32-20 ATS last three seasons – fourth-most profitable team in NFL (DET, DAL, CIN, SF)
• 49ers after scoring 30 points or more:
  Under Shanahan, 26-15 SU, 22-19 ATS
  Since start of 2022: 14-2 SU, 10-6 ATS
• 49ers have now scored 30+ points eight times this season.
  8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS
• Under Kyle Shanahan, the San Francisco 49ers are 0-37 when trailing by 8 or more points in the fourth quarter.
• Kyle Shanahan is 1-31 when trailing by 3+ points entering the fourth quarter.
• The 49ers went 7-0 SU/ATS vs. NFC West last season. They are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS this year.
  San Francisco has won ten straight games SU vs. NFC West.
• 49ers home ATS run.
  Until Bengals loss, 49ers had covered 10 straight at home
  49ers are 16-4 ATS at home in their last 20 games
• Purdy in October or later at Iowa State and with 49ers: 25-12 SU at Iowa St and 13-4 SU with the 49ers (38-16 SU)
• Kyle Shanahan vs NFC West
  As Favorite: 10-10-1 ATS
  As Underdog: 13-7 ATS
• The 49ers went 7-0 SU/ATS vs. NFC West last season. This year, they are 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS vs. NFC West.
  San Francisco has won 10 straight games SU vs. NFC West.
  The record for SU wins vs. own division is 16 by 2012-15 IND and 1972-73 MIA.
  The SF franchise record is 12 back in 1997-98
• Teams traveling from a road EST game to a home MST/PST game are 54-78 ATS (40.9%) since 2015. Under .500 ATS each of the last 5 seasons.
  Week 14: SF, LAC
• Good third down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% third down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 320-255-19 ATS (55.7%) last 20 years.
  Week 14: SF
• When a defense is rolling and the team is good, time to fade. Teams over .500 SU, allowing 20 points or less in four straight games, who are listed as the favorite, are 127-156-7 ATS (44.9%) last 20 years.
  Week 14: SF
• Bet divisional unders later in the season. Unders in division, with total of 45 or more between Weeks 11-16, are 131-69-3 (65.5%) since 2012.
  Week 14: PHI/DAL, SEA/SF

• Both Vikings and Raiders are off a bye for this matchup.
  When two teams play both on a bye, favorite is 39-26-1 SU last 20 years.
• Expect a low scoring game? When both teams are on extended rest, the under is 104-49-1 (68%) since 2018, including 28-7 so far this season.
  Week 14: MIN/LV, GB/NYG, TEN/MIA
• Vikings are 11-0-1 to the first quarter under this season.
• Kirk Cousins is now in Minnesota’s past and Josh Dobbs is the quarterback of the now.
  The Vikings 23 pass TD is T-third most in the NFL and their 3,264 pass yards is fourth most in the league.
• With Kirk out, Minnesota will continue to go to a back up QB.
  Since 2015, only four backup QBs have started for Minnesota: Josh Dobbs, Jaren Hall, Sean Mannion and Case Keenum. They are 14-7 SU, 14-7 ATS in 21 games filling in for the Vikings.
• Kevin O’Connell as a favorite and an underdog
  Favorite: 15-4 SU, 9-9-1 ATS
  Underdog: 4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS
• O’Connell on extended rest: 3-4 SU/ATS
• O’Connell off bye: 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS
• The Vikings are 9-3 to the under this season. Between 2020-22, Minnesota was 34-16-1 to the over in that span.
• Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell by time of day
  1P ET or earlier: 16-3 SU, 10-8-1 ATS
  2P ET or later: 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS
• Joshua Dobbs fumbled 3 more times last night. Already six in three Vikings games.
  He has 14 fumbles now, most in the NFL. Next highest is 11 (Lamar).
  14 would've led the league in two of the last three seasons.
• Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games last year during the regular season. Minnesota has now played four straight one-score games entering Week 13 and they’ve played ten one-score games in 2023 (5-6 SU) in 11 total games.

Worst point differential among 13+ win teams since the merger (incl. postseason)
2022 Vikings -10 2023: 8.5 win total (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS)
1979 Oilers +26 1980: 11-6 SU (WC), 6-9-2 ATS
1990 Raiders +31 1991: 9-8 SU (WC), 8-9 ATS (U10 win total)
1993 Chiefs +31 1994: 9-8 SU (WC), 9-8 ATS (U9.5 win total)

• Raiders fade late in the season. Historically, the Raiders don’t win in November or later.
  Last 20 years, they’ve been over .500 SU in this window once (2016).
  In 2023, they are 2-2 SU in Nov. or later this season.
• The Raiders team total under is 10-2 this season – second-best record to the under in the NFL (NE is 11-1)
• Aidan O’Connell is the 24th different Raiders starting QB over the last 20 years.
  Only 3 of those 24 are profitable ATS for the Raiders: Jason Campbell, Terrelle Pryor, and O’Connell (3-2 ATS)
• Raiders home/road since moving to Las Vegas
  Raiders at home in Vegas: 15-16 SU, 17-14 ATS
  On road/neutral: 14-18 SU, 13-19 ATS
• At 3-1 ATS, Antonio Pierce is already making Raiders history.
  Third Raiders coach since 1990 over .500 ATS: Hue Jackson and Jon Gruden
  This season: Pierce: 3-1 ATS | McDaniels: 3-5 ATS
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 176-122-6 ATS (59.1%) since 2018 & 39-28-2 ATS this season.
  Week 14: NE, LV, CAR, CHI, JAC, NYJ, CIN, TB, NYG
• Teams listed as home dogs off extended rest have struggled recently. Home dogs off 8 days rest or more are 7-12 ATS this season and 42-59-2 ATS in the last decade.
  Week 14: CHI, LV, NYG
• Since 2011, teams on 10+ days rest, coming off a loss vs. a divisional opponent have struggled at home, going 29-47-1 ATS.
  Week 14: LV

• Broncos had their 5-game win streak snapped in Houston last week, but after a 1-5 SU start, they are still 6-6 SU on the season now.
  Broncos could join the 1970 Bengals, the 2015 Kansas City Chiefs, the 2018 Indianapolis Colts and Washington in 2020 as the only teams to start 1-5 and make the postseason
• Russ vs. AFC West with Broncos: 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS
  Russ vs. Chargers: 1-1 SU/ATS
• Broncos are 2-10 against the third quarter spread this season and 9-20 3Q ATS last two seasons.
• Broncos defense is seventh in EPA/play since Week 6. In Weeks 1-5, they were 32nd, last in the NFL.
• Broncos defense allowed a completion pct of 73.6% through 8 games this season, that was tied for the third-highest comp. % through eight games in the Super Bowl era.
  Since that point, Broncos have allowed a comp% of 56.3%, lowest mark in the NFL.
• Wilson is 16-25 SU over the last three seasons, he was 107-52-1 SU in his first 9 seasons in the NFL.
  Wilson is 7-13 SU in his last 20 starts and 8-16 SU in his last 24 starts for the Broncos.
• Russ after a SU loss career: 43-23 SU, 36-25-5 | with the Broncos: 5-10 SU, 6-8-1 ATS
• Wilson with Seahawks vs. Broncos
  DEN: 10-17 SU, 10-16-1 ATS
  SU mark is eighth-worst in NFL, ATS is fifth-worst
  SEA: 113-60-1 SU, 90-77-7 ATS
• Wilson’s 10-17 SU mark has lost bettors $576 with Broncos, making him the second-least profitable QB on ML for Broncos last 20 years (Orton, -$628)
• Payton, Broncos are 4-7-1 ATS this season. Payton’s worst season since finishing 6-10 ATS in 2007 and 2014, and 7-10 in 2010
  Payton has gone 7 straight years w/ his team above .500 ATS (2015-21)
  In 16 seasons, his teams are 13-3 above .500 ATS and 9-5-2 to the over on their win total
• Most profitable coaches ATS last 20 yrs: 1. Belichick, 2. McCarthy, 3. Zimmer, 4. Payton
  Payton fell behind Zimmer after the loss to the Jets earlier this year. Bounced back in front after the 5-game win streak. Fell back behind after loss to Texans.

• Chargers in Justin Herbert's 62 career starts, including playoffs
  Points scored 1,532
  Points allowed 1,542
• Fewest SU wins, teams with win total of 8.5 or more
  Jets – 4
  Chargers – 5
• The Chargers have played 30 games since the start of last season, and 21 of them have finished within seven points.
  22 of the Chargers last 31 games have been decided by 7 points or less dating back to the Week 18, 2021 Raiders loss.
• Teams to score 14 points or less in consecutive games are 164-130-9 1H ATS (55.8%) since 2012 – but this season, the trend has taken a turn. Those teams are 4-17 1H ATS.
  Week 14: NE, NYJ, LAC
• Teams traveling from a road EST game to a home MST/PST game are 54-78 ATS (40.9%) since 2015. Under .500 ATS each of the last 5 seasons.
  Week 14: SF, LAC
• Teams who fail to score a lot of points in consecutive games, who average a decent amount of points on the year usually score/cover the following week. Teams to average 20 or more points on the season and score 14 points or less in consecutive games are 69-44-3 ATS (61.1%) last 20 years.
  Week 14: LAC
• With the Chargers 5-7, still worth noting Justin Herbert has been one of the best QBs in the league this year.
  Herbert is t-10 in: Completions, pass yds, pass TDs, pass 1D, QBR, “on target” pct throws
• Herbert’s W/L record has been a product of his defense in his career.
  When his defense allows 27 points or more, LAC is 6-25 SU, 9-22 ATS.
  When his defense allows fewer than 27 points, LAC is 24-7 SU, 23-7-1 ATS
• Herbert is 18-13 ATS on the road, and only 14-16-1 ATS at home in his career.
  Chargers have finished .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 consecutive seasons. They are 3-3 ATS this season
  Chargers have finished above .500 ATS once at home in the last ten years. They are 2-4 ATS this season
• Herbert as a favorite vs. AFC West: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS | at home: 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS
• Herbert is 16-21-1 ATS in “toss up” games in his career – or games with a spread of 4 points or less – including 11-18-1 ATS with spread of 3 or less. He’s 2-9-1 ATS in his last 12 games in this spot, with his two wins over Cousins, Vikings and Wilson, Jets.
• Herbert by time zone:
  EST/CST: 15-8 ATS (just 3-3 ATS this season)
  MST/PST: 17-21-1 ATS
• Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite
  Underdog: 13-10 ATS, 19-4 in 6-pt teasers
  Favorite: 19-19-1 ATS, 28-8-1 in 6-pt teasers
• Herbert is 35-27 1H ATS, he’s 18-12 1H ATS since start of last season.
• Herbert is 18-39-5 against the second half spread in his career.
  Since 2005, he’s 255th of 256 QBs in 2H ATS profitability
  Can’t hold a lead: he’s 8-26-2 2H ATS when leading at HT (-$1,864, third-worst in NFL since 2005)

Herbert 2H ATS Career
2023: 3-8-1 ATS
2022: 6-10-2 ATS
2021: 5-12 ATS
2020: 4-9-2 ATS

• Bills can go under their preseason win total of 10.5 with a loss this week.
  Currently 6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS
  When the Bills offense plays well, the defense tends to show up as well. 8-4 to the under this season
• Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes
  10/16/22: -2.5 Bills, Bills W 24-20
  1/23/22: +2.5 Bills, Chiefs W 42-36
  10/10/21: +2.5 Bills, Bills W 38-20
  1/24/21: +3 Bills, Chiefs W 38-24
  10/19/20: +5.5 Bills, Chiefs W 26-17 (Only game played in Buffalo)
• Bills got their first cover last week since Oct. 1, beating the Jets 32-6 2 weeks ago.
  Bills are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games, including 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games
  Bills 11-18-1 ATS mark since start of last year is fourth-worst in the NFL
• Josh Allen has thrown an INT in eight straight games – the first time he’s done that in the regular season in his career.
  The record for INT in the last 20 years is 12 done by 5 different players
  December 19-28, 2020: last time Josh Allen didn’t have a turnover in consecutive regular season starts.
  Fortunately for Allen and the Bills, the Chiefs are tied for 20th in the league with 14 defensive turnovers per game, only 6 are interceptions which is tied for 23rd
  Regular Season:
  He has 73 INT since 2018, most in NFL
  He has 56 fumbles since 2018, most in NFL.
• Josh Allen has 62 wins in his career — 46 of those 62 wins have been by 7 points or more.
• Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career.
  Allen is 31-20-3 ATS on seven days rest (14th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot)
  He’s 8-9-1 ATS on short rest and 6-13-1 ATS on extended rest.
• The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 57-36-3 against the second half spread. Since 2005, he’s the second-most profitable QB on the second half spread of 256 QBs.
• In toss up games, Josh Allen has performed well.
  Spread is 3 or less, Allen is 17-11 SU, 17-10-1 ATS.
  Spread is 4 or less, Allen is 23-14 SU, 21-15-1 ATS.
• Allen has played 28 games as an underdog in his career. 16-12-2 ATS.
  16-9-2 ATS as a dog in regular season
  0-3 ATS as a dog in the playoffs
• Under is 26-17-2 in Josh Allen road games in his career – 13th-best to the under on the road in the last 20 years, including 10-3 last two seasons.
• Bills are 1-7 ATS last 8 games
• Josh Allen is 0-6 in overtime. The Bills as a franchise are now 3-12 SU (20%) in overtime since 2010, worst win pct of any team.
• Bills are now off of a loss against the Eagles in Philadelphia.
  Allen off a SU loss: 21-8 SU, 14-13-2 ATS
• Allen’s 6-12-1 ATS mark on extended rest is 217th of 220 QB in the last 20 years.

1. Romo, 219. Cousins, 218. Rivers, 217. Allen

• Bills defense allowed 37 to the Eagles last week. Josh Allen, Bills are 20-6 SU, 15-9-2 ATS game after allowing 24 points or more – including 12-3 SU in their last 15 games in this spot.

• 1 of 2 teams this season still favored in every game: KC, SF
• When the Chiefs defense allows more than 20 points this season, KC is 0-4 SU/ATS, against the Lions, Broncos, Eagles and Packers. KC is 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS when their defense allows 20 points or less.
• Chiefs second half unders have been the play…
  Second half unders are 11-1 in KC games this year
  4th quarter unders are 11-1 in KC games this year
• Last year, Mahomes played two games off a SU loss where KC scored 20 points or less. KC went 2-0 SU/ATS, averaging 42.5 PPG.
• Mahomes has had 29 passes dropped so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, seventh-most in the NFL.
• Mahomes starts by point spread
  Favorite: 96 (48-47-1 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
  Home: 26-27-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 30-21-1 ATS
  1p ET: 14-16-1 ATS | After 1p slate: 41-32-1 ATS
  -10 or higher: 25 (11-13-1 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 81 (45-35-1 ATS)
  -3 or less/or dog: 28 (20-7-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 78 (36-41-1 ATS)
• Explosion incoming? Mahomes has played five games where he threw an INT and 225 pass yds or fewer in his last game. Chiefs are 5-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 13.5 PPG.
• Mahomes is 12-6 ATS when the Chiefs are not listed as the public side.
• Mahomes is 32-22-1 to the under in his home starts. 12-3 to the under at home over the last two seasons, the most profitable home QB to under.
• Mahomes is just 9-15 ATS after a SU win dating back to 2022, the least profitable QB in the NFL
• Mahomes after a SU loss: 17-3 SU, 12-8 ATS
  Off a SU loss, playing at home: 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS
• In his career, Mahomes is 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS for the Chiefs the game after scoring less than 20 points.
• Mahomes career based on rest
  6 days or less: 11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS
  7 days: 43-13 SU, 29-26-1 ATS
  8+ days: 24-7 SU, 15-15-1 ATS
• Mahomes is 31-3 SU in November and December in last 34 games. He is 37-7 SU in Nov/Dec in his career (49-10 SU in Nov, Dec & Jan).
• Chiefs are 4-8 against the fourth quarter spread this season and 18-34 4Q ATS the last three seasons.
• Rashee Rice leads the Chiefs in ATTD profit this season at +7.4 units. Justin Watson led KC in ATTD profit last year (+15U).
• Chiefs are -2500 to win the AFC West right now. Chiefs have won the AFC West seven consecutive years – longest active division streak across four major sports – The longest run of division titles belongs to the New England Patriots with an 11-year streak from 2009 to 2019. Chiefs are currently -2500 to win the AFC West again.

Longest NFL Division Title Streak NFL History
11 – 2009-19 NE
7 – 2016-23 KC
7 – 1973-79 STL

• Clinching scenarios. Eagles go to playoffs with:
  1 Win and SEA loss OR
  2 Win and LAR loss
  3 Win and GB loss and MIN loss
  4 Win and GB loss and DET loss
• Eagles were -400 to make playoffs in preseason, third-lowest odds (KC, SF)
• Eagles are 8-3-1 ATS this season – best mark in the NFL
  Best ATS Seasons, Teams to Make Super Bowl Last 20 Years
  22 CIN 12-4 ATS, 04 NE 11-3-2 ATS, 2008 NYG 12-4 ATS, 17 NE 11-5 ATS, 13 SF 11-5 ATS, 11 GB 11-5 ATS
• When the Eagles are trailing, they can get back in the game quick. They are 8-5 SU in their last 13 games when trailing by 10 points or more at any point, including 4-1 SU this season.
  All other teams are 69-318-2 SU (17.8%) in that spot last two seasons entering Week 13
• The Eagles schedule entering Week 14 has been brutal … and they are 3-1 in those games.
  vs. DAL (W), at KC (W), vs. BUF (W), vs. SF (L), at DAL, at SEA
• Impact of Lane Johnson.
  Without him: 14-23 SU
  With him: 94-53-1 SU
• Hurts is 19-11 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, second-best mark of any QB in the NFL behind Goff. Hurts has lost 5 straight 1H ATS entering Week 14.
• Eagles are 14-6 1H ML in last 20. Hurts is 27-20-3 1H ML in his career.
  Since start of last season, Eagles are 22-9-1 1H ML – second most 1H ML wins in NFL behind the Ravens (23)
• Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.
  Home: 17-7-1 ATS (second of 96 QBs since 2020 behind Tua)
  Road/Neutral: 10-14-1 ATS (92nd of 98 QBs since 2020)
  All other PHI QBs in the last 20 years are 71-82-1 ATS at home.
• The Eagles are 26-4 SU when Jalen Hurts plays the last two regular seasons
• Hurts doesn’t love facing good offenses. Eagles are 10-11 SU vs. team scoring 24 PPG or more on the year and 22-4 SU under that mark.
• Hurts is 11-1 SU in his last 12 NFC East games. Only loss vs. Washington.
• Hurts is just 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS after a SU loss, including just 4-4 SU on road.
• Hurts in night games: 10-5 SU, 10-4-1 ATS
  Home in night games: 7-3 SU, 8-1-1 ATS (2-3 ATS away from home)
• Eagles have 34 sacks through ten games this season (T-12th) and they had 70 sacks last season – third-most regular season all-time (72 ‘84 CHI, 71 ‘89 MIN).
• Eagles defense allowed 42 points last week vs. 49ers.
  Eagles are 8-4 SU under Hurts after allowing 30 points or more in their last game – they had won 7 in a row SU prior to 49ers loss
• In his career, Hurts is 4-9 SU, 6-7 ATS as an underdog and he’s 2-7 SU as a dog in his last 9 starts.
  Last week vs 49ers was first time Hurts has been an underdog since being +1, November 21st, 2021 at home against the Chargers
• Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 88-61-1 ATS (59%) since 2020.
  Week 14: PHI
• Really good teams who are listed as underdogs late in the season have struggled. Teams with a 70%+ win pct in December or later, who are listed as dogs are 48-70-3 ATS in the regular season.
  Week 14: PHI
• Bet divisional unders later in the season. Unders in division, with total of 45 or more between Weeks 11-16, are 131-69-3 (65.5%) since 2012.
  Week 14: PHI/DAL, SEA/SF

• Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy are co-favorites to win MVP. They are the sixth and seventh different QB to be listed as the favorite to win the MVP award already this season.
  Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy
• Cowboys can clinch playoff berth with:
  1 Win and MIN loss and GB loss and SEA loss and TB loss and DET win and LAR loss
  2 Win and MIN loss and GB loss and SEA loss and TB loss and DET win and NO loss
• Dak is 8-4 SU/ATS vs. Eagles and 1-1 SU/ATS vs. Jalen Hurts.
• Dak’s 8-4 ATS mark is best for QB ATS vs. Eagles in the last 20 years.
• Dak Prescott has had success playing against the NFC East.
  He’s 30-8 SU, 27-11 ATS.
  Last 20 years, he’s second-most profitable QB ATS vs. his own division. 1. Rodgers, 2. Dak, 3. Big Ben, 4. Brady
• Since 2021, Cowboys are 12-5 SU and 12-5 ATS in night games, the most profitable team ATS at night in that span.
• When Dak is a favorite at night, he is 17-9-1 ATS in his career.
  9-1 in since 2021
  Last 20 years, that is the third-best mark in the NFL: Peyton, Rodgers, Dak
• Dak on extended rest: 15-6 SU/ATS
• McCarthy on extended rest: 39-22 SU, 35-23-3 ATS
  GB: 29-17 SU, 25-18-3 | DAL: 10-5 SU/ATS
• Dak vs. Eagles: 8-4 SU/ATS
  Home: 5-1 SU/ATS | Road: 3-3 SU/ATS
  Favorite: 7-1 SU/ATS | Underdog: 1-3 SU/ATS
• Dak has lost his last six starts at night as an underdog dating back to 2019.
  At night, Dak is 22-5 SU as a favorite and 3-8 SU as an underdog.
• McCarthy is very much like Dak, plays to his role in night games. He’s 31-17-1 ATS as a favorite, 13-21-2 ATS as a dog at night.
  McCarthy’s 31-17-1 ATS mark as a favorite at night is most profitable last 20 years
• Overall, Dak is 25-13 SU, 22-15-1 ATS in night games.
  He’s seventh-most profitable ATS last 20 years at night
  Peyton, Rodgers, Rivers, Russ, Wentz, Pickett, Dak
• Cowboys' nine wins are over teams that are a combined 32-65, and none of the nine have a winning record. The 49ers and Eagles are the only winning teams the Cowboys have played this season, and the Cowboys lost both games.
• Ceedee Lamb is having an unreal season for the Cowboys.
  DAL records through 12 games: most receptions (90) and third-most rec yds (1,182)
  Most DAL rec yds thru 12 games: 95 Irvin 1,290, 07 TO 1,249, 23 Lamb
• Dak is 7-0 ATS coming off a loss last two seasons and 7-10 ATS off a SU win.
  7-0 ATS mark is best in the NFL – QBs 3-0 ATS or better off loss last two years: Dak, Watson (4-0), Darnold (3-0)
• Dak does well vs. bad teams. He is 35-10 SU, 31-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 21-24 SU, 17-28 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
  The 31-13-2 ATS mark is second-best in the last 20 years behind just Tom Brady.
  The 17-28 ATS mark is 258th of 262 QBs in the last 20 years.
• Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson has 22 targets in the red zone this year, second most in the NFL behind his teammate Ceedee Lamb (23)
• Can the Cowboys keep it going? Last three seasons…
  After a loss SU: 12-1 ATS
  After a win SU: 18-15 ATS
• If you bet on Dak to throw an INT in every game last season, you would be up 8.6U (most of any QB). Second was Aaron Rodgers at +7.2U.
  This season, you would be down 2.8 units betting a “yes” INT for Dak.
• Dak Prescott is 5-8-1 ATS in MST or PST time zones, but he’s 58-42-1 ATS in EST and CST.
• Cowboys are 11-3 ATS at home in their last 14 games.
• This line initially opened at Dallas -1 and has ballooned to -3 and higher at some shops. It has been profitable to follow the line with Dak Prescott. His teams are 21-10 ATS when the line moves against him (ex. -5 to -7) by two points or more. When the line moves at all against Dak between the opening and closing lines, his teams are 31-20-1 ATS in his career.
• Dak is 27-11 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,459), 36-39-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$513)
• Mike McCarthy is 61-39 ATS vs. division opponents with GB/DAL (13-9 ATS w/ DAL).
  Last 20 years, he’s most profitable coach vs. division opp ATS (+$1,919)
  Vs. Div: 51-27 ATS as favorite, 10-12 ATS as underdog
• Fade great teams. In December or later, teams with a 70%+ win pct, 60%+ cover pct and a 10+ pt scoring margin on the season are 58-83-4 ATS (41.1%) last 20 years.
  Week 14: BAL, DAL

• Vrabel as an underdog: 25-28 SU, 29-23-1 ATS, including 25-15-1 ATS when the spread is +3 or higher.
  In 6 seasons with Titans, Vrabel has never finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog (4-6 ATS this season).
• Vrabel is 13-11-1 ATS as an underdog off of a SU loss. He’s covered 4-3 in his last 7 games in this spot.
• Will Levis is 0-6 straight up 2H and against the second half spread in his 6 starts.
• Of 41 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this season, the Titans' rookie quarterback has the eighth-lowest success rate. Levis’ comp % of 57.8% is 39th of those 41 QBs
• Titans have now gone 31 straight games without scoring 30 points.
  Longest active streak in the NFL and longest streak in franchise history
  NYG streak of 43 straight games was last one broken this high in 2022.
• Vrabel is 38-29 SU in Sept, Oct & Nov. in his career (16-16 SU in Dec. on).
• Biggest underdog under Vrabel
  Been a dog of double-digits 5 times in career (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS)
  12/29/22 vs DAL: +13.5, L 27-13
  11/6/22 @ KC: +14, L 20-17
  9/19/22 @ BUF: +10, L 41-7
  1/11/20 @ BAL: +10, W 28-12
  9/23/18: @ JAX: +10, W 9-6
• Vrabel is 10-10 SU, 11-9 ATS in night games – 10-7 ATS as a dog at night.
• Titans have struggled recently under Vrabel on extended rest (8+ days), losing 6 of last 8 games SU.
  Vrabel has coached seven games off a bye (12+ days), he is 6-1 SU/ATS.
  Most profitable coaches ATS off bye (12+ days) last 20 years:

1. Mike McCarthy: 13-6-1 ATS, 2. Vrabel 6-1 ATS, 3. Belichick: 22-18-1 ATS

• Dog 6 or more, Vrabel is 10-5 ATS
• Double-digit underdogs are 69-52-3 ATS in the last 20 years
  3-3 in 2023 and 7-7 since the start of last season and 18-18-1 since 2019

• On the road they are 50-46-3 ATS in the last 20 years
  6-6 ATS since start of last year and 3-3 this year
• Expect a low scoring game? When both teams are on extended rest, the under is 104-49-1 (68%) since 2018, including 28-7 so far this season.
  Week 14: MIN/LV, GB/NYG, TEN/MIA

• Dolphins can go over their preseason win total with a win Monday night.
  It was their highest preseason win total since 2004.
• This will be Tua’s ninth start at night. He’s 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS (3-4 ATS on road, 0-1 ATS at home).
  Tua’s lost all three of his night starts as an underdog, all on the road (PHI, BUF, CIN)
• Since 2021, Dolphins are 4-11 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 18-7 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.
  The Dolphins haven't beaten a team with a winning record since they beat the Bills in Week 3 of last season (9/25/22) – Only one team doesn't have a SU win over a team with a winning record in this span == Dolphins: 0-7 SU
• Tua on extended rest: 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS
• Dolphins offense is still highest in the NFL at 6.86 YPP. Now the fourth-highest through 12 games all-time, ahead of just 2000 Rams (7.1), 2018 Chiefs (7) and 2004 Colts (7).
  Usually teams with early year high power offenses come back to reality. Teams who average 6+ YPP in November or later are 29-40-2 ATS as a favorite in the last 20 years.
• The Dolphins are still averaging 32.0 PPG this season, second best in the NFL, entering Week 14 behind Cowboys (32.3)
  Teams to average 30 PPG or more in 10th game or later are 131-154-8 ATS last 20 years. Those teams are 53-72-5 ATS when not playing at home.
• Tua prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 16-6 ATS at home and 11-12-1 ATS away from home in his career.
  Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015
  Miami is 37-21-3 ATS since 2016 at home – best home team ATS in that span
• Tua by time zone: 24-10-1 ATS in EST | 3-6 ATS all other time zones
• Tyreek Hill watch…
  Tyreek has 1,481 receiving yards through 12 games – most for any player since 1961. Hill is 519 receiving yards shy of 2,000 and 483 yards shy of breaking the single-season record (1,964) by Calvin Johnson in 2012.
  Through 12 games last year, Tyreek had 1,379 rec yds (that season is ninth-most thru 12 games all-time).
  Tyreek was +950 to lead NFL in receiving yards entering this year (third-top choice).
  He is now
• When Tua faces an opposing offense averaging 21 PPG or less, he is 15-5 SU, including 14-1 SU in his last 15 in this spot.
• Tua is 12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS as a favorite of over 4 points. In his career, he has avoided the big upset bug.
• Tua faces a pretty good “sack defense” this week in the Jets.
  Here is how the Tua has performed based on the opponents sack pct (The opponents percentage of plays that end as a sack while on defense). The Jets are at 3.6% currently.
  3.5% or higher: 10-8 SU
  Less than 3.5 %: 17-8 SU
• Tua has been a double-digit favorite six times in his career, he is 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS
• Tua has played in 8 night games and 2 morning games in his career – a total of 10 “primetime” or standalone games. He is 4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS in those games.
• Tua vs. NFC:
  10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS
  4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS in last 7
• Tua has played 8 games off extended rest during his career, he is 7-2 SU, and 5-4 ATS in those games.
• Dolphins have closed above a 10-pt favorite just seven times in the last 20 years (3 in 2023)
  -14.5: 2022 vs. HOU (W, 30-15)
  -14: 2023 vs CAR (W, 42-21)
  -14: 2023 vs LV (W, 20-13)
  -13.5: 2003 vs. HOU (L, 21-20)
  -13: 2023 vs. NYG (W, 31-16)
  -10.5: 2020 vs. CIN (W, 19-7)
  -10.5: 2006 vs. TENN (W, 13-10)

• LaFleur is 49-34 ATS in his career as Packers coach.
• LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 19-10 ATS as a ‘dog — 12-5 with Rodgers and 7-5 with Jordan Love. As a favorite, LaFleur is 30-24 ATS.
• LaFleur in primetime games with Packers – night, international, etc .. standalone – is 21-12 SU, 20-13 ATS
• LaFleur is now 16-0 SU, 10-6 ATS in December games.
  LaFleur is 39-28 SU in all other months. In January, LaFleur is just 5-5 SU.
• LaFleur is 19-10 SU, 18-11 ATS in his career at night – over the last 20 years, that 18-11 ATS mark is ninth-best of any head coach (8 of 136).
  He is the second-best coach ATS at night since 2019, behind only Frank Reich
• LaFleur is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS with the Packers on Monday Night Football.
• Jordan Love in night games: 1-2 SU/ATS
• Love is 4-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU and 2-3 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU
• Fewest games favored in season for Packers since 1990
  1 – 2023 (1-0 ATS)
  2 – 1991 (0-2 ATS)
  3 – 1992 (2-1 ATS)
  5 – 2006 (2-3 ATS)
  5 – 2005 (1-3-1 ATS)
  6 – 1990 (2-4 ATS)
  6 – 2017 (4-2 ATS)
• Jordan Love has been streaky has an NFL QB.
  Started 4-0 ATS, 4-5 ATS since.
  Covered 3 straight.
  Love has closed as a favorite 1 time in his 13 start career.
• Packers were plus money (+165) to make the playoffs in the preseason for the first time since 2009 (+100) – they made the playoffs that season.
  Packers are now -215 to make the playoffs with a 6-6 SU record.
• The Packers went 5-6 SU as favorites under LaFleur last season. Week 9 was their first game as a favorite this year. Week 14 should be their second.
  Between 2019-21, Packers were 33-9 SU as a favorite under LaFleur.
  Packers haven’t been underdogs in their first seven games since 1980 prior to this season (GB were underdogs in their first 7 games).
  Packers were last underdogs in their first 8 games back in 1953 (dogs in first 10 games).

• According to point differential, Giants are the worst team in the NFL, with a -133 this season and they are second to last in the NFL in points (Patriots)
  In 2020 and 2021, they finished 31st in scoring
• The Giants are 9-3 to the under this season – 1 of 12 teams with 8+ unders this year.
• Giants are 43-19-2 to the under since 2020 – by far the best mark to the under in the NFL
• Daboll led the Giants to an impressive 11-3 ATS record as an underdog in Year 1, going 7-6 straight-up (SU) in those spots.
  2023 hasn’t been as kind. Giants are 3-8 SU and 4-6-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
• A very different year for the Giants under Brian Daboll.
  They went 7-0 ATS after a SU loss last season. This year, they are 3-5 ATS
• QB comparison – min. 100 plays as QB for ranks (of 41 QBs).
  Taylor: 25th EPA/play, comp% second, 18th avg. depth per target
  Jones: 37th EPA/play, comp% 12th, 36th avg. depth per target
  Devito: 41st EPA/play, comp% 31st, 29th avg. depth per target
• Under in Giants home games is 23-6-1 since 2020 and 5-0 this season – best in the NFL
  Giants have scored 37 total points in five games at home this year.
• Since 2017, Giants are 8-40 SU in games played after the 1p ET window – least profitable team on the ML in the NFL.
  Giants are 27-35-1 SU playing at 1p ET or earlier in that span
• Giants went over win total last year for first time since 2016. They’ve gone under in 5 of last 6 years – since 2011, 9-2-1 to the under.
  Haven’t went over win total consecutive years since 2007-08
• The Giants have played four night games so far this season – they're 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS and are failing to cover the spread by 13 PPG in those four games.
  Most night games played by team this season after Week 13.
  BUF 5, KC 5, PHI 5, DAL 5, NYG 5
• Since 2020, the Jets and Giants are 2-20 SU and 9-13 ATS in night games
  When they are at home, they are a combined 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 176-122-6 ATS (59.1%) since 2018 & 39-28-2 ATS this season.
  Week 14: NE, LV, CAR, CHI, JAC, NYJ, CIN, TB, NYG
• Teams listed as home dogs off extended rest have struggled recently. Home dogs off 8 days rest or more are 7-12 ATS this season and 42-59-2 ATS in the last decade.
  Week 14: CHI, LV, NYG
• Expect a low scoring game? When both teams are on extended rest, the under is 104-49-1 (68%) since 2018, including 28-7 so far this season.
  Week 14: MIN/LV, GB/NYG, TEN/MIA

System: We mention weather a lot when it comes to totals, here is an Action PRO system for wind.

Matches: TB/ATL, HOU/NYJ, JAC/CLE, DET/CHI, LAR/BAL, TEN/MIA, GB/NYG

System: Later in the season, divisional unders become a stronger ROI historically.

Matches: ATL/TB, CHI/DET, NO/CAR

System: An Action Network PRO System on Divisional unders — similar to the one above.

Matches: SEA/SF

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

• Coming Soon!

Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.

• Coming Soon!

League Trends ⤵️

Teams to lead by 7 or more at the end of the 1Q are 61-16 SU, 60-15-2 ATS full game this year. That 80% ATS mark would be best in a full year since 1998.

Focusing on unders this season? Unders have excelled this season in non-divisional games.

• 30-30 in divisional games
• 80-52-1 in non-divisional games

Division Standings ATS vs. Non-Div Opponents – This Season

1. AFC N: 18-11-1 ATS
2. NFC N: 20-13-1 ATS
3. AFC S: 19-13 ATS
4. NFC W: 18-14-1 ATS
5. NFC E: 18-14-1 ATS
6. AFC W: 16-19-1 ATS
7. AFC E: 10-21-1 ATS
8. NFC S: 11-25 ATS

Last two seasons

1. AFC N: 45-27-3 ATS
2. NFC S: 28-52-1 ATS

Last three seasons

1. AFC N: 70-51-3 ATS
2. NFC S: 46-79-2 ATS

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Award Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Awards Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Odds	3rd In Odds
NFL MVP	Brock Purdy (+300)	Dak Prescott (+300)	Jalen Hurts (+350)
Offensive POY	Tyreek Hill (-175)	Christian McCaffrey (+145)	CeeDee Lamb (+2200)
Defensive POY	Micah Parsons (+100)	Myles Garrett (+200)	T.J. Watt (+300)
Offensive ROY	CJ Stroud (OTB)	N/A	N/A
Defensive ROY	Jalen Carter (-200)	Devon Witherspoon (+325)	Will Anderson (+350)
Comeback POY	Damar Hamlin (-275)	Tua Tagovailoa (+300)	Russell Wilson (+1200)
Coach Of The Year	Dan Campbell (+200)	DeMeco Ryans (+250)	Mike McDaniel (+450)
Updated as of Dec. 6th

Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:

• Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott are now co-favorites to win MVP.
• Tyreek Hill is up to -175 to win OPOY.
• Micah Parsons is now even odds to win DPOY and Damar Hamlin is up to -275 for Comeback.

Trivia Instructions

For this weeks trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer

Trivia Question: Which team in the NFL has the worst 6-pt teaser record this season?

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