NFL Week 14 features a 14-game slate, with the Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers enjoying the final bye week of the season.
For my Week 14 picks, we have under predictions, first and second-half spread bets, plus receptions, receiving and rushing yards props for players like James Cook, Kyle Pitts and Brenton Strange, among others.
I also have a lookahead pick for an NFL Week 15 matchup between the Chargers and Chiefs — plus an MVP futures prediction.
Let's get to my NFL Week 14 picks and predictions!
NFL Week 14 Predictions
Dolphins vs Jets Spread Pick
I bet the Jets the last two weeks and, believe it or not, New York actually has the best record against the spread in the AFC at 8-4, but this one is all about the matchups.
The Jets are the league's run-heaviest team. That should be the case even more against Anthony Weaver's Dolphins defense, which is set up to invite the run, and it's all wrong in this spot.
Miami's roster is barren of talent in the secondary. The Dolphins rank 30th in DVOA in passing defense and can't stop a nose bleed in the air, but they're pretty good defending the run. In fact, Miami ranks best in the league against the run over the last six games, and top 10 overall as a team in that stretch.
Everyone left the Dolphins for dead after their bad start, but Mike McDaniel has rebuilt this offense around explosive De'Von Achane runs and a stout run defense. The Jets defense has been awful, bottom five against both the run and pass over the last six games, and they can't pressure the quarterback and get smoked against motion. Miami runs more motion than any team in the league.
The Jets defense has also been remarkably worse at home this season, and Miami's offense has been better early in games, so this all sets up for a script where Miami gets on the front foot early, and New York doesn't have the guns to fight back.
Miami has won 13 of 16 against the Jets, and the Dolphins have scored 28.6 PPG in the last five meetings. This is the spot where you trust Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel, as favorites against bad teams.
If the line hits three and you prefer to duck the key number, a first-half play could make sense. The Dolphins are 3-9 ATS in the second half, tied for the NFL's worst, while the Jets are 8-4 there.
However, with Miami -2.5 full game available, I'll just back the better, hotter team with the right matchups to get the job done.
Pick: Dolphins -2.5
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Saints vs Buccaneers 1st Half Spread
Keep fading the Saints early until proven otherwise. We hit this bet last week with Miami and avoided a second-half collapse, so let's run it back.
The Saints have been terrible early in games. They've covered only one first quarter all season and now sit 3-9 ATS in the first half, the league's worst, while the Bucs are 8-4 ATS. By contrast, the Saints improve to 8-4 ATS in the second half once they settle in.
We already bet Under 43.5 here on the Hot Read, expecting an ugly, low-scoring game, likely featuring wind and rain. Both defenses may have the upper hand here.
New Orleans' defense has been surprisingly good of late, but rates much worse on the road for the season and significantly worse early in games. It is in the bottom 10 by DVOA in the first half versus top-five after halftime.
Tampa Bay's offense is finally starting to get healthy with Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin back, and even Mike Evans is practicing now. This is also a sneaky big game for Tampa since the Bucs badly need an easy division win to stay ahead of Carolina in a tight race.
This is also a good spot to back an aggressive Todd Bowles defense at home against rookie quarterback Tyler Shough.
Bowles is always tough on young QBs, and Alvin Kamara is a big miss here since Tampa Bay is poor against receiving backs and Kamara has been so good against them in his career.
The Bucs have defeated the Saints six of the last seven times, and this is not one they can overlook.
Playing just Tampa Bay in the first half at -5.5 gets us below the key number and avoids a backdoor late.
Pick: Bucs -5.5 1st Half
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Broncos vs Raiders 2nd Half Spread + Teaser; Team Total
You watched this meeting a month ago on Thursday night, though you're forgiven if you forgot an awful 10-7 comeback Denver win.
The Broncos have actually trailed in every game this season. No other team in NFL history with that stat through 12 games has been better than 7-5. Somehow, the Broncos are 10-2, with eight of those wins by one score. That includes just 4-2 on the road with all four wins by four points or less.
At some books, you can bet Denver to win from behind — not a bad idea at this point!
The Broncos continue to struggle early, bottom five in Offensive DVOA in the first quarter, and the Raiders are top five defensively there. The rankings flip after that, but that shows why Denver is digging a hole early.
This division rivalry has seen five straight sweeps, so whoever proves itself better in the first meeting is winning again.
The Broncos are the better team, maybe by a lot. The Raiders are dead last in DVOA over the last six weeks, and would you believe the Broncos are top five? Everyone knows the defense has been great, but the offense has been top 10, too.
The Raiders are terrible at pressuring the quarterback and rarely blitz, so that's a good setup for Bo Nix, even against zone coverage.
And on the other side of the ball, this Raiders offense should have no shot with their horrendous offensive line and dead last in EPA per play under pressure up against Nik Bonitto and all that Denver pass rush, especially once the Broncos get ahead.
Las Vegas has a heavy short-pass attack, where Denver is elite, and the Raiders rank in the bottom five in Success Rate and explosiveness, while Denver tops the league in both metrics.
I'll place part of this bet on a Raiders alternate team total under 10.5 points at +300 (bet365), something Las Vegas has done already five times this season — including against the Broncos.
If you're a live bettor, it may be wise to wait out that early Denver start and jump in later. We'll just go with the Broncos' 2nd-half spread at -3.5. The Raiders are 3-9 ATS in the second half, while the Broncos are 8-4 there, including 8-2 ATS in their wins.
Denver actually needs this win since it's in the division and, more importantly, it clinches any head-to-head tiebreaker against the Patriots, since New England lost to the Raiders somehow way back in the opener.
This looks like a great teaser week with several favorites around a touchdown. I'll add a Bucs (-2.5) and Broncos (-1.5) six-point teaser, pushing both lines past all those key numbers, against two opponents who really just need to get a loss and a better draft pick.
Pick: Broncos 2H -3.5 / Raiders Team Total Under 10.5
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Bears vs Packers Picks: Spread and Futures MVP Prop
At first glance, this line looks high, with the Bears the current one-seed off extra rest.
Nevertheless, this feels like it could be the time to sell high on Chicago, which could drop all the way to the seven-seed with a loss.
The Black Friday win against Philadelphia was impressive, but what else have the Bears proven? Their only other two games against teams currently over .500 were ugly road losses in Detroit and Baltimore.
The Packers absolutely dominate this rivalry, winning 26 of the last 30. Green Bay would be on a 12-game win streak in the rivalry if the Bears hadn't won in Week 18 this January against the Packers backups.
The key to this matchup is explosives.
Chicago has the most explosive offense in the NFL, but Green Bay's defense has been excellent all season at limiting explosives, allowing the second fewest in the league. Chicago throws deep as much as any team in the league, but the Packers also defend the deep ball well.
Meanwhile, the Packers rank in the top five in explosives themselves offensively, but Chicago's defense has not been good against them. The Bears rank 30th in EPA per play against deep balls, and Jordan Love has been ripping throws downfield and shredding defenses.
The Bears are trending up, but the Packers are still better. For the season, Green Bay still ranks ahead in both offense (4th versus 12th) and defense (7th versus 25th). The defensive gap may be even bigger than it looks, too: Chicago's defense has been far worse on the road, and Green Bay's has been even better at home, No. 2 on the season.
Earlier this week, I bought Jordan Love stock for MVP at +1900 (DraftKings). Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford haven't separated from the pack, and Green Bay is actually the third most likely team to snag a top-two seed behind the Patriots and Broncos, ahead of everyone in the NFC. MVP is a team award, and Love has the advanced metrics and the team profile to make a push.
Love just threw four TDs against the Lions on Thanksgiving with everyone watching. If he beats the Bears here, then the Broncos next week, he'll add back-to-back wins over both one-seeds.
It has to start with a win here. When two teams at 70% win rate or better play in December, the favorite is 35-19-3 ATS, covering 65% of the time by 4.3 PPG. This late in the season, once everyone agrees who the better team is, don't overthink it.
The Packers have covered -6.5 in all but one of their wins this season. Lay the points.
Pick: Packers -6.5 + Love MVP
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Colts vs Jaguars Player Prop + Escalator
This is a huge game in the AFC South, and I don't have a great feel for which team will come out on top. I don't trust either team right now, but the home team has won 14 of 15 in this rivalry, and the Colts have only covered three of the last 20 meetings.
It should be a good game for tight ends both ways, since both defenses rank in the top four in yards allowed to TEs. Tyler Warren is fading a bit from his hot start to just 49 YPG over the last five, but Jacksonville's Brenton Strange should be in line for another good game.
Indianapolis ranks in the bottom 10 in DVOA defending tight ends. The Colts are top-five in fantasy points allowed at the position and have allowed at least 34 yards to a tight end 10 times already this season.
Who would have believed when the season started that it would be Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange, not Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr., leading the way for a Jaguars playoff contender?
Strange has really had a breakout season, though. He averaged 4.8 catches for 46 yards on six targets a game over the first four games before missing a chunk of time hurt, but he's picked up right where he left off since returning at 4.0 receptions for 69 yards a game on five targets these last two outings.
Bet Strange to go Over 39.5 receiving yards (BetMGM). He's gone over that in five of six healthy games; hilariously, all of them except the easiest spot on the schedule, against the Bengals.
He's also had 59+ yards in half of his healthy games, so place part of your bet on 60+ yards at +240 (bet365).
Pick: Brenton Strange Over 39.5 Rec Yds + Escalator
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Bengals vs Bills Player Props
Initially, I wanted to bet the Bengals here. Joe Burrow is a remarkable 18-3 ATS (86%) in his career as an underdog of three or more points in the regular or postseason, winning nine of the last 14 such games outright — including just last week.
However, this might be the game that finally gets the Bengals coaching staff fired.
Cincinnati's offense just doesn't optimize itself, and that could be a death blow against a Buffalo defense that's gettable, but only if you attack its weaknesses.
Buffalo is bad against motion and play-action, although the Bengals rarely attack that way. Cincinnati loves to play out of 11 personnel, the second-most of any team, but the Bills rank top-five in EPA per play against base.
Buffalo prefers to play a lot of two-high safety looks and ranks in the top three in EPA defending that way; Cincinnati faces two-high looks more than any team and ranks 30th in EPA against it.
The Bengals simply aren't getting to any easy buttons with this offense and making things simpler. Buffalo also ranks in the top five in pressure rate, while Cincinnati has struggled all year against pressure.
You beat the Bills by running on them, and Cincinnati is a pretty good running team! But the Bengals don't often commit to the run game enough, stubbornly dropping Joe Burrow back out of the shotgun and letting him chuck it all game.
Both run defenses in this game are awful, as bad as anyone in football outside of the Giants. But only one of these offenses commits to the run.
Just look at the Bills against the Steelers last week. Josh Allen was under two yards ADOT for the game and got the ball out quickly when they threw it, leading James Cook to pound the rock all night. With Buffalo's offensive line banged up, running the ball is actually a way to protect the line since it's easier to run block. Allen doesn't have to be the MVP if Cook does all the dirty work for him.
The Bills are 6-0 this season when Cook has 19 or more carries; they're just 2-4 when he doesn't, with both wins coming in wild shootouts. When Cook does have 19+ carries, he averages 23.3 rushes for 144 yards, with at least 108 yards in every game and six TDs in all.
Both offenses should want to grind out long, sustained drives to keep the dangerous opposing QB on the sidelines, but only Buffalo really commits to doing that.
The Bengals have allowed 14+ carries to a runner 10 times. They've allowed six RBs to run for 93+ yards and three to hit 125 or more. Only one RB had over 18 carries, but that was a breakout game for Kyle Monangai with 26/176, and Buffalo funnels its touches through Cook.
A big James Cook game here should proxy as a Bills win. Just look at his numbers in three of the last four Buffalo wins: 32/144 last week against Pittsburgh, 27/114 against the Chiefs in a similar script to this one, and 19/216 against Carolina with two TDs.
We're taking the Cook escalator all the way up.
Start with Over 95.5 rushing yards (Fanatics). The Bengals allow 153 YPG on the ground.
And rather than play over 19.5 rushing attempts, let's assume that if Cook gets those 20+ carries, he'll also be productive. It's the terrible Bengals defense, after all, and Cook averages 23/144 with 19+ carries!
Play 120+ yards at +235 along with 140+ yards at +475 (bet365), and let's also touch 28+ rushing attempts at +1360 (DraftKings) since he's had 27 and 32 rushes in Buffalo's last two wins.
I'm also playing Cook at +300 (BetRivers) to take the rushing crown. He's only 54 yards behind Jonathan Taylor, who has a brutal closing schedule, and Cook may very well have the lead after Sunday if he has a big game against the Bengals.
Pick: James Cook Rush Yds/Attempts Escalator
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Seahawks vs Falcons Player Receptions Escalator
I tried a Kyle Pitts receptions escalator two weeks ago against the Saints and fell flat as he had just two catches for 25 yards. However, Pitts actually led Atlanta in targets that game, and he's been the Falcons target leader in all three games with Kirk Cousins as QB this season.
Cousins will likely have trouble against all that Seattle pressure, and that should mean looking to his favorite target, which is clearly Pitts, especially with Drake London sidelined and the way Cousins has targeted tight ends over his career.
As good as Seattle's defense is, it's been vulnerable against tight ends. The Seahawks rank in the bottom five by DVOA against tight ends and allow the 7th-most fantasy points against them, including the 3rd-most receptions. Even better, Seattle leads the league against middle passes, where tight ends usually live, so these are mostly passes outside, where Pitts is better.
Two of Seattle's last 10 games came against an opponent with an injured TE1; in the other eight, the TE1 had six, seven, four, nine, four, nine, six, and six receptions. That's at least six catches in six of the eight (75%) and 6.4 receptions a game.
Pitts is averaging over seven targets a game with Cousins playing and London out. He matched his career high with nine catches earlier this season in one of those Cousins games, and he caught seven balls for 82 yards last week.
The Over 4.5 here is juiced, so let's skip straight to the receptions escalator. Split your bet between 6+ catches at +135 and 7+ receptions at +475, and nibble a little on 9+ at +900 (all at bet365) in case Pitts matches his career-high again.
Pick: Kyle Pitts Receptions Escalator
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Rams vs Cardinals Spread Escalator
The Cardinals have a bevy of close losses this season and have mostly been competitive despite the 3-9 record, but Arizona also lost by 19 and 22 to the 49ers and Seahawks in November. Might it be time to complete the division trifecta?
The Rams need to get back on track after a shocking loss to Carolina, but don't let that loss throw you off the scent. LA was mostly dominant in that one, outside a handful of huge swing plays, with a huge 61-to-39% Success Rate advantage.
This might be just the matchup for Los Angeles to get back on track.
The Rams have won 14 of the last 17 against the Cardinals, and only one of those 17 games was closer than seven points. Eight of those 14 Rams wins came by at least 17 points, and that includes wins by 22, 23, 23, 27, 33, and 34 — almost half of them by 22 or more!
The Cardinals offense has been worse early in games, and their defense is trending down as the season goes along. That's a bad script for Arizona, and the game could get away quickly in what also looks like a nice bounce-back MVP spot for Matthew Stafford.
The Rams already have five wins this season by 14 or more points, including wins by 24, 27, and 28.
I'll skip the traditional line and go straight for the alternates: Rams -13.5 at +165, Rams -16.5 at +240, and Rams -20.5 at +425 (bet365).
We're not done! In case this really gets away from Arizona, sprinkle Rams -26.5 at +800 and Rams -30.5 at +1300 too (FanDuel).
Pick: Rams Spread Escalator
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Titans vs Browns Under Mineshaft; Player TD Prop
Come on, there's no way we're not playing what may well be the worst NFL game of the year.
These are two of the absolute worst offenses in football, so good luck finding much scoring. Cleveland also forecasts freezing temperatures and windy conditions, and windy games are 62% to the under over the last five seasons.
QB Shedeur Sanders hasn't been terrible, but he hasn't been great. The Browns really have one good, sustained touchdown drive in two games with Sanders; the other three were drives of five plays or less against the terrible Raiders.
Tennessee's defense isn't awful now that it's healthy and should get pressure up the middle and make things tough on Sanders.
The Browns defense is elite, especially at home, and should make life miserable for Cam Ward.
Tennessee ranks dead last in EPA per play against two-high safety looks, which Cleveland plays more than any team in the league, and ranks first in EPA per play. The Titans also rank dead last against pressure, and you know Myles Garrett is coming for that sack record.
The Titans are last in the league at 14.2 PPG. How in the world will they score here?
Their team total Under 15.5 feels like a crazy line, until you notice they've gone under that in seven of 12 games already!
When a total gets this low, history says books simply can't set the total low enough.
Totals at 37 or below since November 2019 are 42-22-1 to the under (67%). At 36 or below, games are 17-7 to the under (71%) since 2012.
The Browns have already played eight games below 40 points and five at 34 or below.
Don't be daunted by the low total; play Under 34.5 at -120 (theScore), still ahead of the final key number of 33.
And don't stop there! In those 24 games since 2012 with a total of 36 or below, the losing team has topped out at 10 points in two-thirds of them, with 9-of-24 games (38%) seeing the losing team score single digits.
I'm betting the "no" option on both teams to score 10 points at +250 (bet365), and just in case this gets really ugly, I'll also play "neither" team for first to reach 10 points at +2800 (BetMGM).
Cleveland's defense is the biggest strength here and should be enough for a win. The Browns have allowed 6, 10, and 10 points in their wins, and the Titans have already scored 3 and 0 in losses, so play a Browns shutout at +1600 (DraftKings).
If someone does find the endzone this game — and it's +4000 to bet they don't at bet365 — it'll probably be Quinshon Judkins.
The Titans have allowed 14 touchdowns to RBs on the season, the second-most in the NFL with at least one in all but two games. Judkins has six TDs in Cleveland's three wins, with at least one every game, compared to only one in all of Cleveland's losses combined.
Play Judkins -110 (bet365) for an Anytime TD if you dare, and it's worth getting creative and parlaying a Judkins TD with the under at +375 (bet365) since that bet gets a boost for negative correlation with so few touchdowns available.
Pick: Under 34.5 Mineshaft / Judkins Anytime TD
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Week 15 Lookahead Pick: Chargers vs Chiefs Over/Under Pick
These teams play in our final two games of the weekend on Sunday and Monday night, so everyone will be watching. I'm betting on low-scoring games, taking the under in both.
These teams' offensive lines are in shambles, with each of them missing both starting tackles.
The Chargers offense is fading badly, now in the bottom 10 in DVOA over the last six games, and QB Justin Herbert is a significant question mark going forward after having surgery on his hand. There's always a chance he could miss this game, leaving Trey Lance and a boosted under.
Both coaches tend to be conservative, leading to many long, slow scoring drives. The Chiefs are 8-4 to the under this season, third best in the NFL, and Patrick Mahomes' home unders are 38-21-1 in his career (64%), most profitable of any active quarterback.
Late in the season, from Week 14 forward, it's often profitable to bet the under in division matchups: 134-104-1 to the under (56%) in games with a home favorite under seven points, and 57% to the under in games with a total from 43 to 47 points.
Over the last five matchups between these division rivals, the games average just 36.8 PPG, with a maximum score of 48. We're about to watch both offenses struggle to score against terrific Houston and Philadelphia defenses on back-to-back primetime nights, so there's only one direction this line will go.
It's already moving that way at some books, and 40 to 44 are all key numbers when it comes to totals. Grab the under 45.5 at FanDuel while it's there.
Pick: Under 45.5
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Brandon's NFL Week 14 Betting Card
- Dolphins -2.5
- Bucs -5.5 1st Half
- Broncos 2H -3.5 / Raiders Team Total Under 10.5
- Packers -6.5 + Love MVP
- Brenton Strange Over 39.5 Rec Yds
- James Cook Over 95.5 Rushing Yards
- Kyle Pitts 6+ Receptions
- Rams -13.5
- Titans vs Browns Under 34.5
NFL Week 15 Lookahead Pick
- Chargers vs Chiefs Under 45.5
