NFL Week 18 closes the regular season with a full 16-game slate that ends with the Ravens and Steelers meeting on Sunday Night Football.
Since it's the final week, I'm playing things a bit differently than usual — less aggressive on units, maybe half the usual size, and more aggressively shopping long shots and underdogs, with lines that may be priced off by quite a bit if books guess incorrectly on motivation and correlation.
In many cases, I'm looking to invest in futures more than sides and moneylines. If we're right about an angle, what happens next? Every win changes seeding and playoff paths and scenarios, so how do we bet it?
For my Week 18 NFL picks, we have spread, moneyline and team total predictions with escalators, as well as a Drake Maye passing TDs prop pick.
Let's get to my NFL Week 18 picks and predictions!
NFL Week 18 Predictions
Saints vs Falcons Spread/Moneyline Picks
You know how the ACC had Duke play Virginia in the conference championship but then sent Miami to the playoff instead?
I'd love to see the NFC South send the Saints to the playoffs — because New Orleans has been the best team in the division for half a season.
The Saints have won five of seven, including 3-1 against the division in that span. Over the last eight weeks — that's two months! — they are a top 12 team by both DVOA and EPA.
The defense has been especially good during that stretch, second in EPA per play and first in Success Rate. The run defense has been strong all season, and now the pass D is way up too, with a defense effectively equal to Seattle in metrics these past two months.
That great run defense will be key against Bijan Robinson and the Falcons, and New Orleans also plays a lot of single-high looks, which Atlanta's offense ranks in the bottom five against by EPA.
If the Panthers lose to the Bucs on Saturday, this game determines the NFC South champion, and Tampa would need a Saints win to keep their season alive. I like their chances.
Tyler Shough looks legitimately good, like New Orleans has found its QB of the future, and the Saints have a good shot to finish the season on a five-game win streak and head into the offseason with aplomb.
A win here would also make Shough a pretty attractive Rookie of the Year bet at +195 (FanDuel).
The Falcons have a higher ceiling but are wildly inconsistent. The Saints are the better team and are worth playing past the key number at +3.5, with a portion of the bet on the +160 moneyline (bet365).
Pick: Saints +3.5; Saints Moneyline (+160)
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Lions vs Bears ATS/Moneyline Predictions
My numbers say this line is about right, but this angle is all about matchup and motivation.
Detroit hung 52 on this Bears defense back in Week 2, and though Chicago is a bit healthier now, this defense remains extremely gettable.
Both offenses are loaded, and both defenses are flailing here, so we could get a shootout. The Bears have the better offensive line now, but Detroit may actually be a bit healthier, and the Lions are on extra rest and have won six of seven against Chicago.
The big question is whether Detroit will show up mentally after being eliminated from the playoffs, and I'm banking on a full effort.
Sure, Detroit can lock up last place in the division with a loss, but that only affects three games on next year's schedule, and nothing we know about HC Dan Campbell says he wants to end the season on a four-game losing streak or opt for the easy way out.
This is still a chance to sweep former Lions coach Ben Johnson and one-up a rival, getting over .500 on the season. That stuff matters to Campbell.
The Lions are still 14-3 ATS after their last 17 losses, and several other trends back Detroit here as well. Campbell and Jared Goff are both terrific as underdogs and against teams over .500.
On top of all that, this game could end up totally meaningless for the Bears.
It looks like the Eagles will rest, and if Philadelphia loses, Chicago is locked into the 2-seed.
Back the more motivated team to come out biting kneecaps and end the season on a better note.
Give me Detroit +3 and +140 on the moneyline (bet365).
Pick: Lions +3; Lions Moneyline (+140)
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Commanders vs Eagles Spread Pick and Escalator
I'm not going to pretend I like much of anything about the Commanders. The defense is old, and Josh Johnson stinks.
This is all about the number in a rest spot for Philadelphia.
The Eagles already announced they're resting quarterback Jalen Hurts and many other starters, and it makes sense — the team is locked as the 3-seed unless they win and get a Bears loss. This game is mostly meaningless for Philadelphia.
That announcement saw the line drop from around Eagles -7.5 on Sunday night to Eagles -4.5, with the total also dropping three points, but that's not nearly enough.
This is the top-heaviest team in the league, a full stars-and-scrubs roster with a huge amount invested into its top guys.
It's not just Hurts — take Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, either of Jordan Mailata or Lane Johnson out of the lineup, and the offense gets significantly worse. There's little depth behind these guys — same with the star tackles and corners in defense.
This line has not moved anywhere close to enough. We don't know who all will or won't play, but I make it about 8-to-10 points in Washington's favor, given the quality of starters likely missing and the lack of depth behind them.
However, this line moved only three points! And to be fair, Eagles -7.5 was likely a slight hedge on possible rest, as I would make this Philadelphia -9.5 healthy, but that still puts this close to a coin flip with the Eagles resting.
Tanner McKee is a fine backup, but let's be real about the caliber of guys Philadelphia will be playing.
It's all about the number, and if the number is off by that much, we should be aggressive: Commanders +4.5 along with +180 on the moneyline (DraftKings), and sprinkle part of your bet on Washington +6.5 too at +370 (bet365) in case the Eagles totally pack it in.
If you do think Washington can win here, then Chicago's game becomes meaningless for the Bears. A Commanders-Lions moneyline parlay is correlated but not priced accordingly, so play that too at +536 (bet365).
Pick: Commanders +4.5 & Escalator
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Cowboys vs Giants ATS and Team Total Picks
I'm so mad the line is bad enough in this game that we have to pay attention to it and bet it, but here we are.
I make this one Cowboys -9.5!
Are we sure Dallas isn't resting guys, and we just don't know yet? The Cowboys have said they want to push, and Dak Prescott is pushing to lead the league in passing yards, while George Pickens is close to some incentives.
Dallas is off extra rest and playing to get to .500 in Brian Schottenheimer's first year. I think the Cowboys try, and if they do, this number is way off.
Sure, the Giants just won and blew the No. 1 pick, but they also did that last year in Week 17, then promptly lost to Philadelphia's backups the following game.
We know what these teams are. Both defenses are terrible, and Dallas's offense is far better than its counterpart. Klayton Adams' Cowboys offense is built to punish this awful Giants run defense, and Pickens and CeeDee Lamb will win individual matchups, too.
This is when you back Dak Prescott and the Cowboys — as comfortable favorites against bad teams, especially in the division.
Dallas has won 16 of 17 against the Giants, with 30+ points in over half of those, and the Cowboys have scored 36+ in six of their last 14 against New York.
Cowboys -3.5 is an absolutely criminal line if Dallas is playing at full strength, so I have to play this meaningless game.
The Giants allow 29 PPG in their losses this season, with at least 33 points allowed in almost half of their losses.
I'll play a Cowboys team total over 33.5 as a small escalator at +330 (bet365).
Pick: Cowboys -3.5; 33.5 Team Total
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Brown vs Bengals Team Total Escalator
We know what these teams are at this point.
The Browns have a good defense, but the worst offense and special teams in the league. The Bengals' defense is bad but not as awful lately, and the healthy offense is great and capable of putting up big numbers.
Cleveland's defense has slowly faded over the course of the season, though, just a fringe top 10 by DVOA over the last six weeks.
That defense has also been far worse on the road. Against offenses in the top half of the league by DVOA, Cleveland has allowed 31, 32, 34, and 41 points already in road games this season.
That's not a new trend either. Per @Clevta, opponents are now 22-4 to their team total over at home against the Browns since 2023, covering the number by almost a full touchdown. That includes 36% of them (8-of-22) going over by double digits!
The Bengals have scored 31+ in over half their games not featuring Jake Browning this season, and they've hit 37+ in four of their last nine.
It would be classic Browns to lose ugly too late to tank after last week's win, and for the Bengals to hang a big number on a hapless opponent too late to matter for a playoff push.
Play the Bengals team total escalator all the way up: over 26.5 points (-120, DraftKings) and over 30.5 at +165, with a sprinkle on over 39.5 at +625 (bet365) in case of an explosive Sunday.
Pick: Bengals Over 26.5 Team Total & Escalator
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Drake Maye TD Prop
It feels like the MVP race ended Monday night.
Matthew Stafford was terrible, throwing three interceptions in front of a national TV audience. RIP to our preseason +5000 Stafford pick gone to the graveyard with Brock Purdy +5000 and Tom Brady +1400 preseason MVP picks that turned into December odds-on favorites in just the last five years before falling just short at the death.
So it goes for long shots and futures bettors. Great bettors should have some heartbreaking losses, long odds that get oh-so-close — that's how you know it was a good bet and worth betting again the next time.
The Rams are sputtering into the postseason, but Drake Maye dropped five TDs on the hapless Jets, and the Patriots want a win to secure their seeding into the playoffs.
Miami has played better down the stretch, but its pass defense has been terrible all season. The Dolphins have allowed the 7th most passing touchdowns at 1.75 per game, with at least two in 10-of-16 games, but it gets even worse. Miami has played only 11 games against opponent QB1s, and it's allowed 2+ pass TDs in all but one of those games.
Consensus top 10 QBs Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and, of course, Maye have played six times against Miami this season and recorded 18 total touchdowns, an average of three per game. That includes games of three, three, four, and four TDs.
Maye has at least two passing TDs 11 times already, nearly three-fourths of his games, with a pair of 3-TD games plus last week's five.
If he's going to pad his TD stats into the postseason, we may as well profit. Drink the juice on Maye to go over 1.5 passing TDs at -160 (bet365), and play the escalator: 3+ at +260 and 4+ at +850 (bet365).
Pick: Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing TD +Escalator
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Brandon's NFL Week 18 Betting Card
- Saints +3.5; ML +160
- Lions +3; ML +140
- Commanders +4.5
- Cowboys -3.5; Over 33.5 Team Total
- Bengals Over 26.5 Team Total
- Drake Maye Over 1.5 Pass TDs
