NFL Week 5 Betting Preview: All 14 Games Graded Using Luck Rankings
Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: CeeDee Lamb.
Our Predictive Analytics team’s Luck Rankings has proven to be a profitable system, and one that takes into account more than the just the final score every week in the NFL.
For a game to fit our Luck Rankings threshold, it must meet one of two criteria:
- The unlucky team must rank at least 24 places below its opponent.
- There must be a difference of at least 50% between the team’s Luck Rankings.
So far in the 2023-24 NFL season, the unluckier team in matchups that fit one of those thresholds is 7-4-2 against the spread (ATS). Since the start of 2018, unlucky teams fitting one of those thresholds are 103-58-6 (63.5%) ATS.
The rankings have been so popular that people asked how we can provide more information for all the games, and not just the biggest advantages every week. So, we’re going to start adding grades to these matchups to display how valuable the edge in every game is.
When you look at the table, most matchups will be an F, and that's intentional and makes sense.
Why? Because generally, teams are pretty evenly matched in luck. Those are simply the games with the worst edge as evaluated by our Luck Rankings. A game that's rated a D might not sound too attractive, but it might have some value based on the team's luck to this point. It's just not as big of an edge compared to, say, a B grade.
Click here to get our NFL Luck Rankings before Week 5 of the NFL season, and scroll down to see where the edge in luck is in all 14 Week 5 games.
NFL Week 5 Preview
Below, I've laid out every NFL Week 5 game and the difference in each team's luck rating. None of them hit the 50% threshold, although the Panthers vs. Lions matchup does have a 24-spot difference in the Luck Rankings. That game is the only one that fits either of our two thresholds for ATS picks.
There are still some noteworthy differences in Luck Ratings this week, though. The Rams, Cowboys and Raiders are all underdogs in their Week 5 games, but they have a Luck Difference of at least 32% in their respective matchups.
Check out every Week 5 matchup's Luck Difference below.
Thursday Night Football
| Matchup | Luck Difference | Edge | Matchup Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.95% | F |
London Kickoff
| Matchup | Luck Difference | Edge | Matchup Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.61% | F |
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
| Matchup | Luck Difference | Edge | Matchup Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42.9% | B | ||
| 31.4% | D | ||
| 9.55% | F | ||
| 26.2% | F | ||
| 11.55% | F | ||
| 4.98% | F |
Sunday, 4 p.m. ET
| Matchup | Luck Difference | Edge | Matchup Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.75% | F | ||
| 39.16% | F | ||
| 29.62% | F | ||
| 0.17% | F |
Sunday Night Football
| Matchup | Luck Difference | Edge | Matchup Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35.2% | C- |
Monday Night Football
| Matchup | Luck Difference | Edge | Matchup Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32.15% | F |
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