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Packers vs. Lions Upset: Where Value Lies on Green Bay’s Playoff Odds

Packers vs. Lions Upset: Where Value Lies on Green Bay’s Playoff Odds article feature image

The Green Bay Packers certainly turned heads with an upset over the Lions as 9.5-point underdogs. It's the second-biggest upsets on Thanksgiving since 1980.

The public got crushed, seeing as 67% of all bets and 78% of the money was on Detroit to cover, according to the Action Network app. Meanwhile, an overwhelming 89% of bets and 68% of the money was on the Packers winning straight up.

Packers backers clearly cleaned up to kick off Turkey Day. The big winners, however, may be those holding Green Bay futures.

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The Packers entered the game with just a 25% chance to make the playoffs, according to the New York Times' playoff simulator, which runs tens of thousands of simulations to garner odds. That implies a probability of roughly +300. Their win bumped that up to an approximately 42% chance — or +138 odds. Meanwhile, a loss would have been devastating — dropping their odds to make the playoffs to just over 18% (+455).

So now, Green Bay's implied odds to reach the postseason are +138. Keep tabs on what books are offering it at to see if you can gain an advantage heading into next week.

Meanwhile, the Lions chances of capturing the top seed took a big hit. A win would have given them about a 15% chance for home field advantage throughout the playoffs — odds of +566. Instead, they now have less than a 5% chance (+1900) to finish atop the NFC.

Just how unlikely was the Packers performance? Well, this was Detroit’s first loss in over 30 years as a Thanksgiving favorite. Additionally, according to our betting primer, favorites of at least seven points are 27-4 SU and 23-8 ATS in the Wild Card era. Goff is also the most profitable quarterback ATS over the past five years (46-26-1) while the Lions are the NFL’s most profitable team since the start of 2021 ATS (30-14).

Ready to get in on the NFL action in North Carolina? You’ll soon be able to join in on NC sports betting, as the state is expected to come online in 2024.

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