4 Fantasy Point Props & Betting Picks With Value for AFC & NFC Championship Games
Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Tevin Coleman
DraftKings offers player props for fantasy points scored, and I’ve historically had success with such bets in the past.
For the AFC & NFC Championships, there are several DraftKings point props that catch my eye, based on the research I’ve done with these resources at FantasyLabs.
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Also, check out my piece on the traditional player props I like for the AFC & NFC Championships.
This season, I’m 332-218-10 (+64.1) on NFL player props.
Odds as of Sunday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 3:05 pm ET
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
- Over 23.5 DraftKings points: -112
Mahomes had 41.1 DraftKings points last week and 32.8 against the Titans in Week 10.
In the 26 full games Mahomes and wide receiver Tyreek Hill have played together, the quarterback has had a median of 26.3 DraftKings points.
Chiefs RB Damien Williams
- Over 15.5 DraftKings points: -125
Williams had a 97% snap rate last week: He sure looks like the locked-in lead back for the Chiefs, especially with LeSean McCoy inactive on Sunday.
In his 13 Chiefs games with a snap rate of more than 50%, Williams has had a median outcome 23.8 DraftKings points.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 6:40 pm ET
49ers RB Tevin Coleman
- Under 13.5 DraftKings points: -125
In his 15 games this year, Coleman has had a mean of 10.9 DraftKings points and a median of 8.1.
And over the past six games, during which Coleman’s role has been reduced, he’s had a mean of 6.5 and median of 3.1.
The only way you can take the over is if you believe Coleman’s 22-carry, 105-yard rushing performance last week means that he’s now the clear lead back.
I’d rather bet on the under.
Packers TE Jimmy Graham
- Under 6.5 DraftKings points: -112
Graham has theoretically been “on fire” with a total of 98 yards on seven receptions over his past two games, but since No. 1 wide receiver Davante Adams returned in Week 9, Graham has a mean of 5.1 DraftKings points and median of 5.7.
He is dust.
And strong safety Jaquiski Tartt is a tight end eliminator: Even though he missed Weeks 14-17, the 49ers were still No. 1 in the regular season with just 34.5 yards receiving per game allowed to tight ends and No. 2 against the position in pass defense DVOA.
Graham had just 1.7 DraftKings points on two targets, one reception and seven yards against the 49ers in Week 12.
Dead man walking.
Freedman is 571-446-22 (56.1%) overall betting on the NFL. To see the rest of the player props he’s betting, follow him in The Action Network App as he’ll continue to fill out his prop card throughout the weekend.