Raiders vs. Chiefs Betting Picks, Predictions & Odds: Buy Low on Oakland?

Raiders vs. Chiefs Betting Picks, Predictions & Odds: Buy Low on Oakland? article feature image

Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Travis Kelce

  • Are the Oakland Raiders being undervalued as double-digit underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs?
  • Our experts preview this AFC West showdown, with analysis of the betting odds and picks on the spread and over/under.

Raiders at Chiefs Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Chiefs -10
  • Over/Under: 50.5
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Friday.

The Oakland Raiders were in striking distance of the AFC West lead before getting blown out by the New York Jets last week. Now Jon Gruden’s squad is a 10-point underdog against the Kansas City Chiefs. But should you buy low on Oakland?

Our experts analyze every angle of this divisional matchup, featuring analysis of the biggest mismatch and staff picks.

Raiders-Chiefs Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Raiders

I would guess that Hunter Renfrow won’t play since he suffered a broken rib and punctured lung last week, but every other player on the Raiders’ injury report appears on track to suit up.

Tyreek Hill injured his hamstring in the Chiefs’ last game, but he’s practicing in full coming off the bye. Their other two injuries of note are Damien Williams (ribs) and Sammy Watkins (illness). Williams hasn’t practiced all week, which isn’t a good sign. Watkins was downgraded on Thursday with an illness, but we should have a better idea about his status on Friday. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Friday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Josh Jacobs vs. Chiefs Run Defense

The biggest mismatch on paper is Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense against a Raiders defense that simply can’t defend the pass. Not only do the Raiders struggle to get pressure, they have a secondary that struggles to cover in space. That combination spells disaster in today’s NFL and is the reason they rank 30th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA.

However, the weather is supposed to be nasty in Kansas City with potential 25 mph sustained winds, which could limit the Chiefs’ advantage through the air.

If that’s the case, the biggest mismatch to keep an eye on is the Raiders rushing attack against the abysmal Chiefs run defense. In my eyes, Jacobs (who should eclipse 1,000 yards  this Sunday) is a top-five pure running back in the NFL right now. He’ll be running behind a very physical and solid offensive line against a Chiefs defense that ranks 30th against the run DVOA and allows 5.1 yards per carry — they’re one of only two teams allowing more than five yards per rush.

The mismatch in the trenches is also significant. The Raiders’ offensive line ranks fifth in both line yards and stuff rate while the Chiefs’ defensive line ranks 30th and 32nd, respectively.

Oakland should have no issues converting on any short yardage situations.

If Jacobs can consistently churn out yards on the ground, that will sustain long drives for the snail-ish Raiders and keep Mahomes off of the field. It will also set up playaction and the short passing attack for Derek Carr. If that’s the case, that should favor the Raiders and the under (more on that later). Stuckey

Steven Flynn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Jacobs

Sean Koerner‘s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Chiefs -11
  • Projected Total: 53

PRO System Match

Since 2003, the under is 825-732-29 (53.0%) in division games. Unders have been a smart play in division games as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it’s been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points). It’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 183-112-3 (62%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,193 following this strategy.

After opening at 54.5, this over/under has decreased to 50.5, indicating sharp bettors are on the under. John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Raiders +10; Under 51

I played these for a half-unit each as there’s some correlation: If the Raiders are able to move the ball on the ground, they can burn the clock and stay in this while keeping the Chiefs offense off of the field.

Plus, the projected heavy winds will have much more of an impact on the Chiefs’ deep passing game than it will on the Raiders’ run-heavy offense and short playaction passes that Carr fancies. Keep in mind that the Raiders are also a snail, ranking 29th in seconds per play. So when they’re on the field sustaining drives, the clock is bleeding.

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