Raiders vs. Colts Betting Picks & Odds: Can Indy Overcome T.Y. Hilton Absence?

Raiders vs. Colts Betting Picks & Odds: Can Indy Overcome T.Y. Hilton Absence? article feature image

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett (7).

Raiders at Colts Betting Picks & Odds

  • Spread: Colts -7
  • Over/Under: 45
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The Colts are touchdown favorites against the Raiders at home. But can Jacoby Brissett and Co. get it done with two of their biggest stars at risk of not playing?

Our experts break down the most important angles of this game, complete with Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick.

Raiders-Colts Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Raiders

OL Gabe Jackson (knee) is the Raiders’ biggest concern, otherwise most of their players are trending in the right direction.

It’s a different story for the Colts as T.Y. Hilton (quad) and LB Darius Leonard (concussion) have yet to practice this week. It wouldn’t be surprising if both are ruled out, but Hilton doesn’t need to practice to play. If Hilton practices on Friday, he could have a shot at playing. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Josh Jacobs vs. Colts Rush Defense

In case you haven’t heard, Jacobs is the real deal. Even when he doesn’t have holes to run though, he’s been as good as any back in the league at gaining yards after contact.

And a week after touching the ball only 10 times, expect the Raiders to use him early and often against a Colts rush defense that has been one of the NFL’s worst as one of only five teams allowing more than 5.0 yards per rush.

This is also a Colts defense that could be without its best player in Leonard.

Jon Gruden has said he wants to get Jacobs more involved in the passing game. Anytime you can get the ball into his hands, it’s a good thing. Expect a big day from the Alabama product against a beat up Colts defense that has struggled against the run. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Colts -8
  • Projected Total: 44.5

Last week I laid out the case that the Colts, despite being without Andrew Luck, are still built to win easy matchups at home. This is one of those cases.

There’s some value locking them in at -6.5 to avoid the key number of 7, which is still available at some books. I would also wait for Hilton to be ruled out, and to see if Leonard is able to suit up. It’s possible we could get the Colts -5.5 in that scenario, which is where the value will be. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Raiders +7

Leonard’s potential absence could really hurt the rush defense, but don’t sleep on the impact of losing safety Malik Hooker — the Colts’ best defensive back and integral ballhawk on the backend of their zone-heavy Cover 2 scheme.

Khari Willis taking over at free safety takes it from a strength to a potential glaring weakness. I expect either communication issues or even more simplistic schemes from the bend-but-don’t-break Indy D. Hooker was playing much more single high safety this season, which allowed the Colts to play more man than in years past. I don’t think they’ll have that same luxury here, so their defensive game plan and flexibility will certainly be limited.

Look for a big day out of tight end Darren Waller over the middle of the field. And while not known for doing so, hopefully Derek Carr will take some shots down the field after Oakland establishes its short passing and rushing attack.

As a result of a few schematics changes and personnel additions, the Raiders should be better against the run, which is paramount against Marlon Mack and Indy’s dominant offensive line. But Brissett and a banged up Colts receiving corps is not the group that will crush a very weak Oakland secondary.

Colts tight ends do scare me as Raiders linebackers — a unit dealing with a number of injuries — struggle to defend, but this is simply too many points.

Don’t be fooled by the records. Accounting for injuries, these teams are much closer than those indicate. Oakland has actually averaged more yards per play (5.9 vs. 5.7) while both defenses have allowed 6.7 yards per play.

Factoring in all of the injuries, I make this line only 4, so I gladly scooped Raiders +7 and would take them at anything 6 or better.

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