Redskins vs. Giants Betting Picks & Odds: Can Washington Keep Pace Without Terry McLaurin?

Redskins at Giants Betting Picks & Odds

• Spread: Giants -3
• Over/Under: 49.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Thursday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Daniel Jones and the Giants have been the talk of the league since his heroics in Week 3. He'll get his first start at home against the Redskins at MetLife on Sunday. As of Thursday, the market appears to believe in Jones as 57% of bettors are backing the G-Men. They're also expecting a shootout with more than 70% of tickets backing the over.

Can we expect more magic from Jones and the Giants?

Our analysts break down the most angles of this divisional matchup, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds, a Pro System match and our favorite picks.

Redskins-Giants Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Neither

The Giants will obviously be without Saquon Barkley (ankle) for an extended period of time, putting Wayne Gallman in an increased role. They also put Russell Shepard (foot) on injured reserve.

Additionally, they could be down three defensive players: Alec Ogletree (hamstring), Tae Davis (concussion) and Olsen Pierre (knee).

Case Keenum (foot) popped up in the injury report, but practiced in full on Thursday, so he should be good to go. Jordan Reed (concussion) still isn’t practicing and is expected to be out again. Two offensive linemen, Chase Roullier (knee) and Brandon Scherff (ankle) haven’t practiced this week and receiver Terry McLaurin (hamstring) was a new addition on Thursday, but he was still able to get in a limited session. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Wednesday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Both Passing Offenses vs. Both Pass Defenses

Washington enters Week 4 tied for the second-most touchdown passes in the league along with allowing opposing passers to convert air yards into actual yards at the fourth-highest rate in the league (1.07 actual yards per Air Yard per AirYards.com).

Danny Dimes went 23-of-36 for 336 yards and two touchdowns in his first start and has the fifth-highest Total QBR (86.8) among quarterbacks with at least 25 attempts.

Jones' rushing prowess (4-26-2 last week) will put Washington defensive coordinator Greg Manusky in a conundrum, as man coverage would allow Jones to run wild, while Jones has the requisite arm accuracy to carve up a defense that ranks 26th in Pro Football Focus' team coverage grades (49.9).

Jones probably has a brighter long-term matchup than Keenum, but Keenum’s matchup is even more pristine. The Giants enter the game ranked dead last in passing yards allowed (1,038), yards allowed per attempt (10.5), and PFF coverage grade (32.0).

On average, no defense has seen opposing pass attempts travel further downfield than the Giants (10.6 yards).

Keenum turned in a stinker on Monday night with five turnovers, but on the season, he has been solid, completing 86-of-124 passes (69.4%) for 933 yards (7.5 yards per attempt) with a 7-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, with all three picks coming against the top-flight Bears defense.

With at least five grabs and a touchdown in each of his first three games, I REALLY like the rookie wideout Terry McLaurin. Although Reed (concussion) continues to miss time, Paul Richardson, Chris Thompson, Trey Quinn and Vernon Davis alongside McLaurin provide Keenum with solid arsenal of weapons to carve up New York’s league-worst pass defense.

Ultimately, the Giants should still have the edge thanks to third downs. Washington and the Giants come into the game ranked 23rd and 24th in third-down percentage (32.3% and 30.6%, respectively), but the Giants went 5-for-26 (19.2%) in Eli Manning’s two starts but 6-of-13 (46.2%) in Jones’ first start. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Giants -2.5
• Projected Total: 49.5

The Jones era started with a bang.

The rookie led the Giants to a thrilling 32-31 victory in Tampa Bay. But anything Jones does — good or bad — is going to be amplified by the media, so I expected this line to open in the -4 to -4.5 range. The -3 opener was a bit lower than I expected, but there’s some value in taking the key number +3 here, which is still available at some books as of Thursday evening.

Barkley, who is set to miss four to eight weeks, is one of the the rare running backs who has a case for being worth 0.5-1 point to the spread. The Redskins are equipped to take advantage of the Giants’ porous pass defense and are sneaky underdogs to back off the public’s post-Jones debut sugar high. — Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

Underdogs have historically performed well in division games as increased familiarity among opponents keeps games competitive, and it’s been profitable to bet small dogs in these matchups to win outright.

Even though teams matching this Pro System have a losing record of 110-113-2, bettors have still been able to turn a profit due to plus-money bets. A $100 gambler would have returned a profit of $4,770 following this strategy since 2003.

The Redskins +130 are a match for this system.— John Ewing

Expert Pick

Mike Randle: Giants -3

The Giants' offense exploded in last week's 32-31 win at Tampa Bay, with Jones enjoying a breakout performance.

They face defense that has allowed an average of 271 passing yards and three touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks. Washington's pass defense has been a sieve, ranking 28th overall in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders.

Meanwhile, Keenum ranks fourth with 933 passing yards as a result of overwhelming negative game scripts in the face of an 0-3 start. The Giants pass defense has been even worse than Washington, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA, trailing only Miami.

With the second-highest over/under of Week 4, this projects as a high pass volume shootout, but one the Giants should win with a superior offensive line. Washington will continue to miss holdout offensive tackle Trent Williams and dual-threat ability of Jones will further frustrate a struggling Washington defense.

Jones and the Giants should provide enough points to cover the short spread at home.